Why Rory McIlroy Is The Best First Round Leader Pick At The Masters 2026 (Despite His Day One Record)

Picking a first rounder leader at The Masters is no easy task - but one man is arriving on cloud nine with an old adversary still to slay... his historically poor opening round performance.

To contend in the first 18 holes you need to be able to control your nerves, expertly navigate your way around Augusta National and build a score while avoiding significant errors - which is something that defending champion Rory McIlroy has struggled with in the past.

The Northern Irishman possesses the experience to navigate Augusta successfully, and has done for some time, but the pressure of chasing a first Green Jacket and an apparent inability to keep big numbers of his first round card means that he holds a rather undesirable day one record.

However, despite not picking him in my betting tips for the Masters, I do believe his first round woes could be about to disappear.

If your looking for a different angle to get involved in the early stages of the first men's Major of the season, Rory McIlroy represents the best first round leader pick at the Masters in 2026...

The Masters First Round Leader Betting Tips 2026

Let's start by addressing the elephant in the room.

Since shooting 69 in 2018, McIlroy has failed to break 71 in the first round of The Masters - including when shooting 72 en route to completing the Career Grand Slam last year.

Now, let's have it right, McIlroy should have seen out a comfortable opening round when four under through 14 holes in 2025, but a terrible error from the back of the 15th green essentially caused the wheels to fall off.

That's been a pattern that has marred Rory's start to the Masters over the years, meaning he has only been able to shoot an opening round in the 60s twice - in 2011 (65) and 2018 (69).

However, with a huge weight now lifted from him and the freedom to express himself around Augusta National as a champion, I believe that is all about to change.

I believe the slow starts that we have become used to at Augusta when watching Rory were grounded in apprehension and an uncontrollable desire to get over the line.

My colleague Matt Cradock is on the ground at The Masters this year for Golf Monthly, meaning he had the pleasure to watch Rory McIlroy complete his Tuesday practice round in person.

His feedback was glowing, expressing that McIlroy really turned it on for the patrons, playing some incredible golf.

Nearly holing his tee shot on the famous 12th hole at Augusta National and reaching the green in two on the par-5 13th is one thing, but Matt also discussed how the putter seemed to be hot which is a great sign for Rory's chances this week.

I'm almost certain Rory will have enjoyed the pomp and ceremony the comes with being the defending Masters Champion, like hosting the Champions Dinner earlier in the week, but now he is able to focus on doing something only three people have ever achieved - defending the Green Jacket.

Based on the history books, his recent injury scare and the strength of claim from other contenders - I am not sure we see that this week.

But, I do see a fast start and a strong bid from McIlroy who will essentially be playing with little to no pressure.

The tee times for round one and two at the Masters have now been released, placing McIlroy in the early-late wave. I believe that helps Rory's chances in this market, allowing him to go out early in decent conditions and post a number.

He also has a better scoring average when going out early (68.57) vs going out late (69.43) on the PGA Tour this season.

Encouragingly, McIlroy also ranks 1st on the PGA Tour for bogey avoidance this season - so we could be about to see a reformed Rory who keeps his card clean while posting a few birdies to rapturous applause from the adoring patrons.

He has already achieved legendary status and answered a lot of questions which have lingered for some time, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him come out and shoot a 66 on Thursday to lead the Masters.