Valero Texas Open Betting Tips 2026: Why I'm Ignoring The Favorites In Pursuit Of Value

I'll say it again... this column is on fire! Not only did we predict the winner of the Players Championship three weeks ago, but we also predicted Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar Championship and were on runner-up Nicolai Hojgaard last week.

Four of the seven names that made my long list as part of Bazza's Best Bets for the Houston Open lat week returned a top-10 finish, so the model is clearly on the money.

Now we turn our attention to the Valero Texas Open, where despite tirelessly searching for a favorite I can side with... I decided to drop deeper down the odds board in search of value.

There is a strong field confirmed for the final PGA Tour event before the Masters, but I could find a reason to oppose many of the big names.

After crunching the numbers and following the trends, I have instead come up with three great picks to extend our fine run of form into Major season...

Valero Texas Open Betting Tips 2026 - Bazza's Best Bets

Tips by...

Tips by...

Baz Plummer

For any first time readers of my betting tips, I'm Baz. I have years of experience writing golf betting content across the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LPGA Tour and LIV Golf - plus all the men's and women's Majors. I have successfully picked three of the last five men's Major winners, utilising a heavily-researched and data-driven formula which centres around a clear mantra... follow the trends! You can find my best bets in my weekly column, 'Bazza's Best Bets' via the Golf Monthly betting hub.

The Long List

In terms of correlation, Texas is a great place to start.

Strong performances at TPC San Antonio often link well with solid efforts at other Texas-based PGA Tour events, like the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and the Houston Open, so that's a great place to start.

The course form at TPC San Antonio is also some of the most predictive on tour, so look for strong finishes in this event when looking to make your selections.

Aside from that, we are looking for a consistent driver who can match power with accuracy, but also someone who can navigate their way around the green. Green in regulation percentages are lower here than average, so a creative and reliable short game is a must for those hoping to contend.

Par-5 scoring is also a good measure to dive into, as is following the trends of performances on wind-affected courses like Port Royal and Open Championship-style venues.

• Tommy Fleetwood
• Robert MacIntyre
• Alex Noren
• Ryo Hisatsune
• Denny McCarthy
• Sepp Straka
• Keith Mitchell

Bazza's Best Bets

Top Tip: Alex Noren To Win (+3800) @ BetMGM

Alex Noren might not have broken his PGA Tour duck, but he is a prolific winner around the world.

Noren has solid form in Texas, with two top-15 finishes in two starts at the Valero Texas Open. He has also banked a 3rd place finish at TPC Craig Ranch, a 4th place finish at Memorial Park and a runner-up finish at Port Royal - which is a particular wind-affected track.

Five top-20s at Open Championship venues suggest he can cope with conditions, plus he also ranks 9th for Strokes Gained: Around The Green this season. His prowess around the greens and his consistency off the tee make him dangerous in this event.

Next Best: Keith Mitchell To Win (+3700) @ BetMGM

Kieth Mitchell is another player who seems to play some of his best golf in Texas. Mitchell has four consecutive cuts in four appearance at TPC San Antionio, finishing inside the top-26 on each occasion.

In fact, his position has improved year-on-year, finishing T26, T17, T14 and then T12 in 2025. That's particularly encouraging when you consider he also has a top-20 finish at TPC Craig Ranch and two top-10 finishes at the Texas Children's Houston Open.

He closed with a 65 to secure a T14 finish at Memorial Park last week, making it nine consecutive cuts made this season and three top-15 finishes, so I like his chances at a decent price.

The Value Bet: Ryo Hisatsune To Win (+5000) @ BetMGM

Ryo Hisatsune has been in great form this season, with eight consecutive cuts made and four top-15 finishes including when runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Hisatsune was 5th in this event last season, highlighting an ability to cope with the test posed by TPC San Antonio, but he also has a T13 at TPC Craig Ranch and a T29 in Bermuda.

The Japanese star ranks 11th for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green in the last three months, demonstrating the quality of his ball striking and he seems to blend a nice balance of power and accuracy off the tee.

Ranking 25th for SG: Around The Green, he has the short game to get himself out of trouble and this could be the spot for him to finally get over the line on the PGA Tour after weeks of threatening to do so.

Golf Monthly Betting Panel Picks

BetMGM - First Bet Offer: $1500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets, if You Don’t Win

Bonus Bets expire in 7 days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. Live in All Remaining States (minus CO, MI, NJ, PA, WV)

View Deal

^{Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only.}

^{Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable).}

^{Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.}

Tips by...

Tips by...

Elliott Heath

Pick One: Ludvig Aberg To Win (+1600) @ BetMGM

The Swede is one of the top players in the field this week and I'm confident backing him after his recent strong showing at TPC Sawgrass, where he finished T5th despite a poor back nine on Sunday.

He was also T3 in his previous start at Bay Hill, so I like him this week back in his 'home' State of Texas where he attended university. Aberg has played this event twice as a pro and was T14 in 2024 before missing the cut last year.

Pick Two: John Keefer To Win (+8500) @ BetMGM

Last year's Korn Ferry Tour number one John Keefer has had a difficult start to the year but a T3 finish last week out of nowhere was a fantastic result.

His long game has been great this year but his short game and putting have really let him down, but that changed last week in Houston - particularly around the greens.

Keefer won three times last year and lives in San Antonio so should feel very comfortable this week to go and contend again.

Tips by...

Tips by...

Jonny Leighfield

Pick One: Russell Henley To Win (+1600) @ BetMGM

There are a lot of top players involved this week who have significant reasons not to pick them, but I can't really see one for Russell Henley who has once again flown under the radar somewhat this season.

The Georgian has only missed one cut and been inside the top-20 in five of his other six starts. The reason I'd pick him this week is because accuracy is really at a premium at TPC San Antonio and he's one of the most accurate players in the world.

He might not have the distance of others, but he's long enough and the rest of his game more than makes up for a lack of distance off the tee. Plus, his strong record in Texas and in these kinds of conditions make me believe he can walk away on top.

Pick Two: Sepp Straka To Win (+3300) @ BetMGM

Sepp Straka is coming off the back of a T8th at The Players and two more top-20s in 2026, plus a T2nd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

The Austrian's approach game has been sublime this year as well and has been a big reason why he's performed so well.

Capable of combining accuracy and good distance, Straka appears to have been somewhat overlooked in the betting market, but his reemergence from a brief break may remind fans what a world-class player he is.

Golf Monthly Betting Panel Tipping Record