These Two Value Tips Perfectly Fit My First Round Leader Model At The Players Championship
With the potential for inclement weather on Thursday at The Players, prioritising this wave of tee times is the way to go when picking a first round leader...
With less than 24 hours to go until the action gets underway at the Players Championship, I've decided to dive back into the data in search of any hidden value among the markets.
When formulating my best bets for The Players Championship 2026, I focused solely on the outright winner markets as there was plenty of great options to side with.
However, after seeing the weather forecast and tee times at The Players Championship, I am now convinced that there are a couple more options to consider for those wanting a flutter in the first round leader market...
Players Championship 2026: First Round Leader Betting Tips
When looking to make a selection in the first round leader betting markets, I follow a simple process that has returned dividends in the past.
After assessing the weather and tee times to explore the probability of a more beneficial side of the draw in the AM/PM wave split, which I believe exists in favour of the early starters at TPC Sawgrass this year, I then jump into a few key measures.
Ultimately, I am looking for correlation between players performing well across birdie average, round one scoring average, sub par rounds and bogey avoidance. Below, I have found two selections that I believe fit the model well and are worth a punt.
Si Woo Kim
Si Woo Kim is a former winner of this event and a fast starter on the PGA Tour
Si Woo Kim has a great record at this event and is a former champion at TPC Sawgrass.
His tee time is among the early starters on Thursday, heading out with Morikawa and Aberg at 8.40am (ET), but he also models well based on the stats I mentioned above.
Kim ranks 1st for sub par rounds, 5th for early round one scoring average, 13th for birdie average and 16th for bogey avoidance this season.
He has already opened with a 63, two 67s and a 68 this season - but has also opened with a round of 69 or better on Thursday in four of his nine appearances at The Players.
After five top-13 finishes in seven events this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kim start well and challenge over the weekend.
Jacob Bridgeman
Jacob Bridgeman started quickly when winning the Genesis Invitational 2026
Jacob Bridgeman has seriously stepped up a level this season, finishing runner-up at Pebble Beach before winning impressively at the Genesis Invitational.
As I referenced in my sleeper picks for The Players Championship, I love his chances at a huge price this week, but he is also worth considering in the first round leader markets.
With an early round one scoring average of 68, he has already shown an ability to start fast this year. Bridgeman also ranked 3rd for birdie average, 5th for sub par rounds and 10th for bogey avoidance, so models well too.
Bridgeman fired an opening 66 on his way to winning the Genesis, but has also posted 64 and 67 in opening rounds this season. He opened with a 69 in 2025 on debut, but he is a better player this year and has a great chance.