It’s the big one… the curtain-closer… the big showdown… the DP World Tour Championship on the Earth Course at Jumeirah Estates, Dubai. Who can dislodge Rory McIlroy and prevent the World No. 1 running away with the Race To Dubai for a fourth time?
The answer is “damn few” given the Northern Irishman’s blistering current form. Not satisfied with winning the FedEx Cup at the end of the last PGA Tour “year”, glorious Rory kicked off the new campaign by edging out Kurt Kitayama in last month’s CJ Cup in South Carolina. A Majors portfolio reading 2-8-5-3 for 2022 doesn’t sound too shabby either and it was a great regret that the ones that really count just eluded him.
He is a triple course winner but a while back in 2012, '14 and '15, and it is only a minor concern that his last two Jumeirah sorties have ended with him being beaten by five (Collin Morikawa last year) and seven (Jon Rahm in 2019) because his game and mind are in better order now. The 7/2 quote in an elite field of 50 is hard to argue with.
The CJ Cup was a key reason for putting up Tommy Fleetwood for last week’s Nedbank Golf Challenge as the Southport man’s share of fourth place there, a ray of sunshine in an otherwise quiet year, was a strong steer towards a successful defence, albeit three years apart.
Hard to believe such a gifted golfer had not won anywhere in between and it was a case of beware the sick golfer as Fleetwood, the 10/1 favourite, admitted a stomach upset would have ruled him out but for the sterling efforts of the Sun City medic.
He was lucky too that chief rival Ryan Fox duffed his last tee shot and made a bit of a gift of it to the Englishman. Had Fox won, he would have overtaken McIlroy at the top of the Race To Dubai points list. As it is, the New Zealander has closed right up on the leader but there are levels and Rory is a classier act.
`If anyone deserves to finish top of the pile, however, it surely must be the tireless Kiwi who has danced every dance, played seven in a row at one stage, won twice, was eight times in the top five and ten times a top-ten finisher. Not only that, he gets on with it with a smile and at 35 this late bloomer has turned from journeyman to high-class operator.
There’s nothing in Fox’s previous two Jumeirah visits (45th and 28th) to suggest he can topple the favourite on the vast 7675-yard, par-72 Greg Norman layout but its length (two par fives of 620 and 626 yards) won’t beat him - as a 317-yard bomber he’s right up there with Rory and Rahm.
There was nothing either in his previous Sun City visits (52-50-57) to suggest he was going to be second on Sunday. It’s just that Fox has won twice this year and confidence is sky high. Certainly not to be ruled out and he’s as strong as an ox, so he will shake off the Sun City fatigue better than the dosed-up Fleetwood who must have taken a great deal out of himself, physically and mentally.
Rahm, US Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick, BMW PGA hero Shane Lowry and Viktor Hovland are the four other obvious dangers to McIlroy, with the big Spaniard’s course form a powerful pointer. Winner on debut in 2017, again in 2019 and fourth in between, he’s 54-under for those 12 rounds and this is his first time back since.
A winner in Mexico and Spain this year and close behind McIlroy at Congaree the last time we saw him, Rahm will take all the beating at 5/1 and looks an each-way bet to nothing.
Fitzpatrick’s course form as winner in 2020 and runner-up last year is compelling but at marginally bigger odds Hovland is just preferred. The smiling Norwegian has the advantage of having won in Dubai already this year and has been eye-catching in recent outings: fifth at Wentworth and at the ZOZO and tenth at Mayakoba. He handled the course well enough when third in 2020, just two behind Fitzpatrick.
Lowry was runner-up to Rahm in 2017 but I’m not sure this is his course and at the prices I would be more interested in California’s mighty atom Kitayama, who went head to head down the stretch with McIlroy at the CJ Cup in what was his third runner-up spot of the calendar year. When you consider the calibre of the men he finished second to - Rahm in Mexico, Xander Schauffele at the Scottish Open and Rory at Congaree - you appreciate his talent more. Only 5ft 7in, he has improved his short game no end - and he gives the ball an almighty lash off the tee.
Consistency is not his strong suit. If that’s what you want, Alex Noren advertised his place claims with a T4 in Houston (but a long way behind winner Tony Finau) on Sunday, but he’s unlikely to trouble the big guns whereas Kitayama, on an “on” week, just might.
Min Woo Lee, Tyrrell Hatton and Bob MacIntyre are others who might get into the conversation but they will need to be at the top of their game, and then some.
A total outsider is not entirely ruled out - after all, Shubhankar Sharma was at 300/1 the complete outsider of 66 in Sun City last week but was co-leader with three to play - but given the strength at the top of the market, it would be a sensational upset.
This is my final column for Golf Monthly and the last 18 months have been great fun, teeing off with that 150/1 winner of the 2021 Heritage, Stewart Cink. No doubt you thought I was Superman then but those sort of dream results don’t come around too often. Still, we’ve had a steady flow of winners since (plenty of losers too!) and I hope you have enjoyed the ride. It’s been a pleasure, and if you want to stay in touch you can reach me on chappie692002@yahoo.co.uk.
DP World Tour Championship betting tips 2022
- 2.5pts each-way on Jon Rahm at 5/1
- 3pts win on Rory McIlroy at 7/2
- 1pt each-way on Viktor Hovland at 11/1
- 1pt each-way on Kurt Kitayama at 33/1
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