The Players Championship 2026 Betting Tips: Bazza's Best Bets At TPC Sawgrass

This is one of my favourite betting weeks of the year, as I have successfully backed the winner of the Players Championship in each of the past two seasons.

Much of that success has come from following a very specific model that centres around the correlation between the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players and the Majors.

When doing my research, I like to narrow the field at The Players Championship down to a pool of those who played well at Bay Hill the week before, are relatively accurate off the tee/approaching the green and have consistently contended on the Major stage.

The Players Championship might not be a Major, but it's an event that has been dominated by the best of the best in world golf for some time.

With four expert tips offered in this column, I am buoyant about the chances of a hat-trick of wins in this event, but who do you fancy as the best bet for The Players Championship? Drop me a comment below and share your tips...

The Players Championship Betting Tips 2026

Tips by...

Tips by...

Baz Plummer

For any first time readers of my betting tips, I'm Baz. I have years of experience writing golf betting content across the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LPGA Tour and LIV Golf - plus all the men's and women's Majors. I have successfully picked three of the last five men's Major winners, utilising a heavily-researched and data-driven formula which centres around a clear mantra... follow the trends! You can find my best bets in my weekly column, 'Bazza's Best Bets' via the Golf Monthly betting hub.

Top Tip: Collin Morikawa (+2400) To Win @ BetMGM

Collin Morikawa is back!

The serial winner who claimed four titles between 2020 and 2021, including two Majors, sealed a hard-fought win at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am last month and has shown no signs of slowing since.

A 7th place finish at the Genesis Invitational was followed by a 5th place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, but his numbers also perfectly fit the model of a winner at TPC Sawgrass - as a flusher who hits plenty of fairways and is super precise on approach to the green.

Morikawa ranks 5th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 9th for Driving Accuracy on the PGA Tour this season and even ranked 13th for SG: Putting last week at Bay Hill - which has been an area of weakness for him in the past.

A 10th place finish at The Players Championship in 2025 was his best of his career in this event, but I would certainly not be surprised to see a player of his stature win here when 10 of the last 12 winners have been Major Champions.

Next Best: Ludvig Aberg (+2500) To Win @ BetMGM

Ludvig Aberg has been trending nicely into the meaty part of the 2026 PGA Tour schedule, recovering from a slow illness-affected start to post some very encouraging numbers of late.

His last three starts read T37 - T20 - T3, showcasing the improvement over time as we head into The Players, but his performance stats are also on the up.

At the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, Aberg ranked 3rd for driving accuracy and 3rd for SG: Approach, but he also ranked 6th for driving distance and inside the top-25 for his short game.

That all-round brilliance is closer to the Aberg that we know from years gone by, but when you consider that he was 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2024 you can see how credible his claim is for yet another big PGA Tour win.

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The Value Bet: Cameron Young (+3500) To Win @ BetMGM

Let's address the elephant in the room... Cameron Young's record at The Players does not make for good reading - but I like him from a betting perspective regardless.

Young finished T7 at the Genesis Invitational and T3 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, so similarly to Morikawa and Aberg is arriving in plenty of form.

With a great balance between power and accuracy, this course should theoretically suit Young's game, but to be honest he doesn't really have a weak area in his game.

His first PGA Tour title came at the Wyndham Championship, which is played on a track with strong correlation to TPC Sawgrass, and his form at the back end of 2025 highlighted that his best is yet to come.

With a great record at the API, which we know has strong correlation with The Players, I would be surprised if Young didn't crack TPC Sawgrass at some point.

The 'Heart Over Head' Bet: Viktor Hovland (+3300) To Win @ BetMGM

Aside from my much-publicised desire to see Viktor Hovland win a Major, I'd also love to see him claim this prestigious title at TPC Sawgrass.

Hovland has two top-13 finishes in four PGA Tour starts in 2026 and has only shot one over-par round in 16.

His performance stats for this season also loosely fit the model, ranking 13th for SG: Approach and 29th for driving accuracy, but as outlined in the sub-header this is more of a feel pick... however that doesn't stop me loving his chances this week.