Why Experience And Eye Catching Rookie Stats Could Prompt Luke Donald To Make Ryder Cup History

Luke Donald has had it relatively easy when it comes to making his Ryder Cup wildcard picks, but he still has a couple of big decisions to make.

Unlike counterpart Keegan Bradley, there's been no mass hysteria about being a player-captain, while his players have been remarkably consistent over the last two years.

So much so in fact that Donald could make a slice of Ryder Cup history with his wildcard picks, and name the most settled side with the fewest changes we've ever seen in the competition.

At one stage Donald could even have been contemplating something truly historic in naming a totally unchanged 12 for Bethpage Black from the one that won in Rome.

Rasmus Hojgaard scuppered that line from golf writers by qualifying automatically, but the rest of Donald's team looks so settled it's incredible.

So I wouldn't expect to see too many surprises when Donald announces his six picks on Monday - as although he has some interesting wildcard options this year, it just doesn't seem the year for taking chances.

Why Europe needs most settled side in Ryder Cup history

An away Ryder Cup is tough enough as it is, playing one in the New York area will be so much tougher, and so Europe will need all of their famed togetherness and team spirit to pull off a huge victory.

The way qualifying has worked out really helps Donald here, as the players finishing in seventh to 11th in the standings were all part of the 2023 team in Rome.

Throw in the no-brainer of picking Jon Rahm, and that could very likely be Donald's 12-man team for Bethpage - 11 of the same players as Rome with the only change being Rasmus Hojgaard playing in place of his brother Nicolai.

And making just one change would be a record for the Ryder Cup, with the previous fewest being three changes made by any side between one tournament and the next.

There are options of course, Harry Hall has played brilliantly on the PGA Tour, Marco Penge has made a late run in Europe, Matt Wallace finished 12th in qualifying and Thomas Detry won the WM Phoenix Open.

But none of them have played in a Ryder Cup before. Could one or more of them handle it? Quite possibly, but it's a risk that I don't think Donald will take.

So I fully expect him to read out the names of Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick on Monday.

Unless for some unforeseen exceptional circumstances.

Donald's only big decisions left to make

The first may be out of Donald's control as Sepp Straka has missed a few events down the stretch while dealing with a personal matter - and is not currently down on the entry list for the BMW PGA Championship.

Whether the Austrian will tee it up at Wentworth and just what the problem is we don't know, but you can be sure that Donald does and will take that fully into account.

Should Straka not be available, or should Donald decide for whatever reason not to pick him, then that would naturally open the door for Rasmus Hojgaard - who I think is fully in the captain's thinking anyway.

It could, of course, give Hall or Wallace a lifeline and they're both fine players, but continuity will surely be key when playing on American soil in the most hostile environment in golf.

There's not much time to build up partnerships in the heat of this battle, and Hojgaard knows the team, Donald knows who he can play with, and playing him alongside his brother Rasmus must be an enticing prospect.

So what to do with Straka and Hojgaard, to me, would be the only serious considerations weighing on Donald's mind as he contemplates his picks.

Stats say go low on Ryder Cup rookies

If Donald picks Rahm and those in seventh to 11th place as suggested, it would mean a record of just one team change from 2023 and joint record of just one rookie.

Just a single rookie has appeared in a team four times in the last 22 Ryder Cups (since Europe joined the party in 1979) - three times for Europe and one for the USA.

Even having just two rookies is relatively rare, with just four more instances out of the 44 teams previously selected for the 22 Ryder Cups.

If Donald believes in omens then he'll stick to just one rookie - as the last time Europe had just one in their line-up was in 2012 at Medinah, and we all know what happened there.

And if he's looking deep into the stats then he'll feel good about his chances whether he has one rookie or two, as teams containing two first-timers or less have walked away with the Ryder Cup every single time.

Europe have had two rookies or less six times and the USA twice, and in those combined eight outings those sides have won seven and tied one - Europe retaining the cup at the Belfry in 1989.

Europe's first ever Ryder Cup win came with just one rookie in the team, as did the comebacks for the visitors at Medinah and the USA at Brookline.

Donald needs a modern day miracle to win in New York, and the rookie stats here show that if he's to pull it off he's better selecting payers who've been there before.