What Does Rory McIlroy Need To Win The Race To Dubai?

Following the first of the DP World Tour Play-Offs, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, only one event remains in the season, the DP World Tour Championship.

In the first of the Play-Offs, 72 players competed, but the number who will appear in the final event of the season has been whittled down to 50 after the Yas Links tournament.

There, much is on the line, including a share of the $10m prize fund and the chance for non-exempt players to earn one of 10 PGA Tour cards.

Further up the rankings, there is also the chance to claim the biggest prize of all, the honor of lifting the Harry Vardon trophy as the winner of the season-long Race to Dubai.

The player who began the event at the top of the rankings was Rory McIlroy, and he remains there with one tournament to play.

McIlroy headed to Abu Dhabi with a 441.4-point lead, but thanks to the generous distribution of points over the Play-Offs events, more than a handful of players still had realistic ambitions of winning the Race to Dubai at that stage.

However, the Northern Irishman strengthened his grip on the title with a T3 in Abu Dhabi, banking another 507.5 points to leave him one solid performance away from winning the Harry Vardon trophy for a fourth successive year and for the seventh time in his career.

So, what exactly does McIlroy need to add the Race to Dubai title to a glorious year that has already seen him win the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, The Players Championship, The Masters, the Amgen Irish Open and the Ryder Cup with Team Europe?

In one sense, the equation is very straightforward for McIlroy. No matter what anyone else does at the DP World Tour Championship, the Race to Dubai title will be his with yet another victory.

However, he will head to Dubai knowing he has some leeway. Indeed, even a win for nearest rival Marco Penge at the DP World Tour Championship won’t be enough to thwart McIlroy if he finishes solo second, although any tie for second or worse will leave McIlroy short with a Penge victory.

McIlroy’s lead over Penge is 762.02, while he will claim another 57.6 points even if he finishes 50^th at the DP World Tour Championship, effectively taking his advantage to 819.62 points.

Therefore, for the Englishman to have any chance of catching the leader without a victory, he can finish no worse than a three-way tie for second.

For clarity, solo third will not be enough for Penge under any circumstances, as that would only award him 752 points, leaving him short of McIlroy wherever he finishes. Meanwhile, a four-way tie for second would hand Penge 799 points, leaving him 20.02 away from McIlroy even if he finishes 50th.

Aside from McIlroy and Penge, just one more player is still in with a chance of winning the Race to Dubai.

LIV Golf star Tyrrell Hatton is third in the rankings on 2919.18 points, a deficit of 1,720.88 points on McIlroy.

As a result, only a win will do for the Englishman, which would award him 2,000 points. Even then, if McIlroy finishes in a three-way tie for 10th or better, Hatton won’t be able to catch him.

If Hatton wins and McIlroy finishes lower than a three-way tie for 10th, the title still wouldn’t necessarily be in the bag, with it going to Penge if he finishes solo second.

A glance at the Race to Dubai rankings suggests a fourth player is in contention for the title with an event to play.

Kristoffer Reitan is fourth in the rankings, and a win would take him to 4,655.65 points, 15.59 points more than McIlroy currently has.

However, as established earlier, even 50th at the DP World Tour Championship will boost McIlroy’s total by 57.6 points, taking the Norwegian out of the running.

Race To Dubai Contenders - As It Stands

• Rory McIlroy - 4,640.06 points
• Marco Penge - 3,873.04 points
• Tyrrell Hatton - 2,919.18 points