Is This The End For LIV Golf? It's More Complicated Than You Might Think

When the news broke of Brooks Koepka's LIV Golf departure and the new Returning Member Program that has allowed him an instant PGA Tour return, comments began flooding in that the end is in sight for LIV.

The Saudi-backed start-up made a huge splash in 2022 when starting up with Greg Norman as CEO, who picked off star name after star name from the US circuit - including Koepka.

Brooks Koepka leaving the league will undoubtedly be a huge disappointment for those at the helm of the team tour, but does it spell the end? Highly unlikely.

Even if Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Smith follow Koepka out of the door via the new program (as they're the only other three eligible for it), LIV Golf is set up to continue for years to come.

Koepka is a lone wolf who only cares about winning Majors, and he never seemed to be too bothered about LIV's team ethos and his Smash GC side, so his franchise never was one of the key ones.

Cameron Smith's Ripper GC certainly is one, though, with a home event in Australia and Greyson Clothiers, AirAsia and AG1 as sponsors.

Bryson DeChambeau's Crushers GC may well be the most lucrative team with Reebok and Qualcomm on board, while Jon Rahm's Legion XIII has deals with Callaway Golf, Greyson Clothiers and Openbank.

Those three, who have been invited back to the PGA Tour via the new program, are three of LIV's biggest stars - but even those three players leaving surely would not signal the end of LIV Golf.

Don't be surprised to see one of them leave, either. LIV is now four years into its life and its TV ratings and general interest are not where many thought they'd be at this stage after spending billions upon billions uprooting the game.

Would it really be sensible to pay $300m+ to secure Bryson DeChambeau's services when his signature has not made the league must-watch for casual fans? LIV Golf has been great for Bryson in making him millions, allowing him to become the biggest golf YouTuber and growing his fanbase - but has he been as great for LIV Golf?

It would be a huge blow to lose him and any other stars but the PIF-funded tour looks to be in it for the long run, and there are many smart business people running the organization.

The slogan Long LIV Golf remains in place, so one to four of its biggest names leaving would certainly be a crisis and a big setback but not the end.

It signed a ten-year deal with the Asian Tour in 2022 that still has six years remaining, with LIV investing $300m by creating the International Series and pathways to the league via the rankings.

It has a TV deal with Fox in the US and newly announced deals with TNT Sports in the UK and Ireland, Sky Sport in Germany, Austria and Switzerland and Viaplay in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, and Finland.

It has signed on with Adelaide until 2031 for the Australian event, a "multi-year" agreement for the South African tournament and other deals that point to the slogan of 'Long LIV Golf' ringing true.

It is seen in the roster too. Tom McKibbin, Josele Ballester, David Puig and Caleb Surratt are some of the game's brightest prospects who look set to grow into world class players over the coming years, while even if certain stars leave it still has plenty of well-known names and ticket sellers including Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Sergio Garcia, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter and Joaquin Niemann.

Scott O'Neil came in to replace Greg Norman last year and things have been looking subtly more and more different since. The purse strings appear to have been tightened and O'Neil is doing sensible and astute work to grow LIV's global presence.

The PGA Tour feud was perhaps too personal for Greg Norman to really grow LIV Golf into a sustainable business model, and O'Neil taking the reins with fresh eyes and a non-golf background was probably the correct appointment.

O'Neil knows the PGA Tour is and will remain the premier golf tour in the world in terms of viewership, quality of players and interest, but that isn't stopping him doing the job of simply trying to grow LIV Golf into a better and more sustainable business. The practice of throwing nine-figure fees to poach the world's top players seems to be long gone.

He said in October the league had brought in "half a billion" in sponsorship over the last ten months and he will surely be optimistic about the coming years with the potential for growth around the world.

We're seeing that with the franchises and the tournaments on the schedule. Eight of the 14 events in 2023 were in the USA while just four of the 13 announced so far in LIV's 2026 schedule are.

LIV has an all-Spanish team and a tournament in Spain. It has a South African team and a tournament in South Africa. It has the same in Australia, England and Korea as well. LIV's initial splash did not grow a strong enough foothold in the US so it is looking elsewhere, and it seems to be making steady progress with that mission.

One of O'Neil's key goals has also clearly been to secure the league Official World Golf Ranking points, and that looks closer than ever to being achieved. LIV now has pathways into the US Open and The Open, too.

So while it is not making the splashes it once was and is not the premier golf tour in the men's game as it perhaps initially hoped, it undoubtedly remains one of the biggest players with a fairly deep roster and is set up for many years to come.

In this day and age everyone wants everything immediately, but organic growth takes time. Looking back now after five years with 20-20 hindsight, it's easy to see LIV was never going to usurp the PGA Tour and become the player in golf. Its current strategy of organic, global growth seems a sensible path.

And it will continue down that path with or without Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm.