2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Picks and Predictions

The 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open is here. Expert Andy Lack breaks down his favorite Waste Management Phoenix Open picks and takes a look at the latest odds. Who can win one of golf's most exciting events? Let's find out.

Tony Finau tees off at the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale
(Image credit: Getty Images)

Always known for its raucous atmosphere, the PGA Tour travels south to Scottsdale, Arizona for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The most notable change this year in the desert is the event’s promotion to an elevated status tournament. The field of 132 will now be competing for a $20-million dollar purse, with a whopping $3.6 million going to the winner.

While this tournament always delivers a strong field, this year features its best yet as 22 of the top-25 players in the world will be in attendance at TPC Scottsdale on Super Bowl weekend. Scottie Scheffler returns to defend his title, and he is joined by the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Tom Kim, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, and Matt Fitzpatrick, among others. The Waste Management Phoenix Open is the first full-field event of the year where we have all of game’s best competing in the same tournament, and it is sure to provide plenty of fireworks.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Course Preview

TPC Scottsdale

While TPC Scottsdale is most known for a singular hole, the par-three stadium-style 16th, the entire course provides plenty of drama at every turn. Designed in 1986 by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, TPC Scottsdale plays as a par 71, tipping out to 7,261 yards on the scorecard. Situated at an approximate elevation of 1,530 feet above sea level, the course plays far shorter than the scorecard suggests.

Last year, players averaged 311.3 yards off the tee, good for the longest driving distance on par fours and par fives on the entire PGA Tour. Despite featuring its fair share of trouble off the tee, aggressive play is rewarded here, and we will see players bomb away with driver often. It should not come as a surprise that elite drivers of the ball, such as Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Gary Woodland, and Bubba Watson, among others, have experienced so much success at the Weiskopf and Morrish design.

While power always helps, accuracy is of far more importance at TPC Scottsdale, and it will be essential to keep the ball in play off the tee at a course that ranked fifth out of 38 courses last year in penalty strokes per round. A ball-striker’s track through and through, I will be looking to identify elite drivers of the ball, who can generate scoring opportunities at a high clip and have experienced their fair share of success at other TPC style venues.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Key Stats

  • Opportunities Gained
  • Good Drive Percentage
  • Strokes Gained Total: TPC Scottsdale (Course History) list

Waste Management Phoenix Open Picks and Predictions: Outright Winner

Tony Finau (+2500) (Bet $100 to collect $2,600) Back Tony Finau at DraftKings now to get the best odds

I was extremely surprised to see Tony Finau open up at such a high number given his recent play. The World No. 12 will be going for his fourth win in 10 starts. Finau rates out as the No. 1 overall player in this field in the key metrics that I am looking at.

Pound for pound, he remains one of the best drivers of the ball in the world, and I trust his ability to keep the ball out of the desert. His iron play is just as strong, as the 33-year-old ranks sixth in this field in strokes gained approach across his last 36 rounds of play. Coming off a 9th-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open where he gained 3.6 strokes both off the tee and on approach through three rounds at Torrey Pines South Course, I expect the six-time PGA Tour winner to find himself firmly in the mix come Super Bowl Sunday in Scottsdale.

Sungjae Im (+3500) (Bet $100 to collect $3,600) Follow this WM Phoenix Open pick and get the best odds at DraftKings

Despite failing to find the winner’s circle, Sungjae Im is playing some of the best golf of his young career. The World No. 18 is coming off a fourth-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open where he gained seven strokes on approach, two strokes around the green, and 5.5 strokes with the flat-stick through 3 rounds at Torrey Pines South Course. This was the best approach week of Im’s career, and he now travels to a course where he has already recorded two top-20 finishes in three starts.

While the sample size is limited, the 24-year-old has never gained less than 1.5 strokes ball-striking, nor lost strokes putting at TPC Scottsdale. The two-time PGA Tour winner features the exact well-rounded skillset that I am looking for this week, and his most recent PGA Tour victory came at another desert TPC course where keeping the ball in play off the tee and short to middle iron play is of great importance. This will be the week that Im announces himself as one of the best players in the world.

Andy Lack

A PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York, Andy Lack has contributed to sites such as Golf Digest, GolfWRX, OddsChecker Rotoballer, the Score, and now Golf Monthly. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. When he’s not writing, Andy can likely be found somewhere on a golf course pursuing his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur.