Can Form At Courses Similar To Augusta National Help Point Us To This Year's Green Jacket Winner At The Masters?

Most golf fans would agree that there is no tournament quite like The Masters, with the iconic Augusta National maintaining its rightful place as one of the greatest golf courses on the planet. While their aren't many tracks that can compare to the iconic host venue, there are some venues that require a very similar skillset.

When trying to predict the winner of the Green Jacket from such a strong Masters field, it can pay to go down a few statistical rabbit holes – and correlating course form is a great place to start.

In this article, Golf Monthly's Barry Plummer attempts to use the data to predict who could win The Masters this year...

Augusta National Correlating Courses

According to DataGolf, some of the most iconic venues on the PGA Tour have strong links to Augusta National.

The most correlated is The Plantation Course at Kapalua, host venue of the opening event of the calendar year, The Sentry. Similar attributes for success are required at the Hawaiian venue, with a premium on driving distance and around the green prowess.

Seven of the last ten winners at Kapalua have either won The Masters or finished runner-up, so the form link here appears to be very strong.

Another particularly strong correlation comes from Riviera Country Club, host of the Genesis Invitational, with seven of the last nine winners of the event also owning a Green Jacket.

In 2023, Jon Rahm won the Genesis Invitiational in mid-February before securing a first Green Jacket just six weeks later.

Hideki Matsuyama will be looking to follow in his footsteps this year, and secure a second Masters win after storming to victory at Riviera earlier this season. The track, similar to Kapalua, also requires distance off the tee and a creative short game to put a score together.

Who Does The Correlating Course Form Suggest Could Win?

Looking back at the most recent leaderboard for both events, it appears that it could be Xander Schauffele's year. The current Olympic Champion finished T10 at Kapalua in January, before a T4 finish at Riviera where he will be disappointed not to have won.

Four top-5 finishes in his last seven events, and two top-3 finishes at Augusta National in his career suggest he is primed for a good performance. With a Major Championship still missing from an impressive resume, it would be no surprise to see Xander contending on Sunday.

It would be foolish not to mention a certain Scottie Scheffler, who in true Scottie-style posted a T5 finish at Kapalua and a T10 finish at Riviera, despite having a stone cold putter for the first part of the season.

Scheffler has never finished outside the top-19 at Augusta National (four starts), and the former Masters Champion arrives off the back of six consecutive top-10s including two wins and a runner-up finish in his last three events.

A case can also be made for Jason Day, who posted top-10 finishes at both events this year and has a sneaky good record at Augusta National. Two top-10 finishes are intriguing, including when 5th in 2019, especially as the former World No.1 appears to be returning to form this year.

Others to post a couple of strong performances include Max Homa (14th, 16th), Harris English (14th, 7th), Patrick Cantlay (12th, 4th) and J. T Poston (5th, 10th). While there are lots of methods to search for potential winners, correlating course form has thrown up a few Augusta winners in recent years and I wouldn't be surprised to see it bear fruit again.