It's finally here! The Ryder Cup is upon us but who will be leaving Bethpage Black with the trophy, Team USA or Europe?
Home sides have dominated the Ryder Cup recently with just two away wins in the last 13 meetings and none since the Miracle of Medinah in 2012.
Europe have claimed those last two away wins though, and Luke Donald returns 11 of the 12 players that won in Rome two years ago, with Rasmus Hojgaard the only rookie for the visitors.
Team USA has an inexperienced captain in Keegan Bradley and four rookies, but they're the betting favorites at -145 due to home advantage while Europe are +160 to triumph in New York.
The 14-14 tie, which would see Europe retain the cup, is priced at +1100, but which way do we see it going? Read on for our Ryder Cup picks.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only.
Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable).
Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.
Winner: Tie +1100 @ BetMGM
USA rightly enter the week as betting favorites with the last five Ryder Cups all going to the home team, but Europe are supremely strong and experienced so it is set up to be a very tight match.
So in light of that, I will be picking the tie at +1100, which I think offers good value. That also means I will have Europe to lift the trophy at +115 as well as Europe in the tie no bet market at +140. There has not been a tie since 1989 but we did see one recently in the Solheim Cup and it's surely time for another.
Donald has proven himself as a fantastic captain and his side are in great form heading to New York with stalwarts like McIlroy, Rahm, Fleetwood, Hovland, Aberg and Hatton all playing well so I find it difficult to see them being defeated.
Top points scorer: Russell Henley (+1600)
The American might be a rookie this week but he is a seasoned veteran with 14 years of pro experience under his belt and five PGA Tour wins.
He was excellent in his Presidents Cup debut last year, where he partnered Scheffler, and is the type of player who we can expect to play both foursomes and fourballs, so I can see him playing four, maybe five sessions, and potentially returning 3.5 to 4 points.
He is now World No.3 and very good at the basics so expect him to find fairway after fairway and give himself a lot of birdie looks.
Winner: Europe +160 @ BetMGM
As anyone who regularly reads Bazza’s Best Bets will know, I am usually someone who relentlessly follows trends in the data... which points favourably to a home win.
However, I feel so bullish about the chances of Team Europe that I am prepared to shamelessly abandon my values and punt for a big away win. Luke Donald and his team are settled, confident and arrive in great form, which isn’t something I could confidently say about Team USA.
With the market favoring a win for the home side, I am looking to capitalize on some great value in the betting.
Score: USA 11-17 Europe (+1600)
Team Europe set records when winning away in 2004, by a whopping nine points, so this slightly more conservative pick of 17-11 (+1600) to the Europeans is not outside the realms of possibility.
Top Points Scorer: Viktor Hovland (+1800)
A huge part of getting this market right is predicting who is going to have the best opportunity to score points as well as the ability to do so. Viktor Hovland has been used in all five matches in both of the previous two Ryder Cups, returning 3.5 points in 2023.
His form improved drastically towards the end of the season after a win out of nowhere at the Valspar Championship in March. He was third at the US Open and has three top-12 finishes in his three most recent starts. If Luke Donald trusts in Viktor to head into battle in every session once again, this bet could turn out to be fantastic value.
Winner: Europe +160 @ BetMGM
It's experience vs home advantage in New York as Europe have a team, a captain and a backroom staff that know exactly what they're doing, with Luke Donald doubling up being a great idea for an away match.
Team USA are largely untested, both on the course and off it, with four rookies, only one player with more than two appearances and two vice-captains who've never appeared at the event before.
In total there's 35 Ryder Cup appearances among players and staff - 13 of them for Jim Furyk - while Europe have 66 and in crucial foursomes play the Americans have a combined record of just 6-12.
Beyond the stats though are the intangibles, especially for the USA, as we've no idea how the rookies will tackle this unique test, as they could just as easily be inspired by the overwhelming atmosphere as be swept away by it.
So the choice you have to wrestle with is whether Europe's experience can nullify Team USA's home advantage - I think it can, just, as while away teams usually get blown out, this team is built just that bit differently.
Score: USA 13-15 Europe (+1100)
The last five Ryder Cups have been landslides with winning margins of 5-10-7-6-5 points, but this should be a lot closer with Europe's experience and returning captain cancelling out the huge home advantage.
Top points scorer: Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
With the USA team setup as it is, the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay will have to do a lot of heavy lifting, and I could see all four of those having to play all five matches.
Cantlay has a superb 5-2-1 record from his two Ryder Cups and has won both his singles as one of the toughest matchplayers on the team. It will be no surprise for him to be the USA leader at Bethpage.
Ryder Cup odds: USA vs Europe
- USA: -145
- Tie: +1100
- Europe: +160
Ryder Cup odds: Top point scorer
- Scottie Scheffler +550
- Rory McIlroy +900
- Jon Rahm +1000
- Tommy Fleetwood +1100
- Bryson DeChambeau +1200
- Xander Schauffele +1200
- Patrick Cantlay +1400
- Russell Henley +1600
- Ludvig Aberg +1800
- Viktor Hovland +1800
- Collin Morikawa +2000
- Justin Thomas +2000
- Sam Burns +2000
- Tyrrell Hatton +2000
- Cameron Young +2200
- Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
- Robert MacIntyre +2800
- Ben Griffin +3000
- JJ Spaun +3300
- Shane Lowry +3300
- Harris English +4000
- Justin Rose +4000
- Sepp Straka +5000
- Rasmus Hojgaard +8000
Year | Course | Winners |
2023 | Marco Simone, Rome, Italy | Europe (16.5-11.5) |
2021 | Whistling Straits, Wisconsin, USA | USA (19-9) |
2018 | Le Golf National, Paris, France | Europe (17.5-10.5) |
2016 | Hazeltine, Minnesota, USA | USA (17-11) |
2014 | Gleneagles, Auchterarder, Scotland | Europe (16.5-11.5 |
2012 | Medinah, Chicago, USA | Europe (14.5-13.5) |
2010 | Celtic Manor, Newport, Wales | Europe (14.5-13.5) |
2008 | Valhalla, Kentucky, USA | USA (16.5-11.5) |
2006 | The K Club, Co Kildare, Ireland | Europe (18.5-9.5) |
2004 | Oakland Hills, Michigan, USA | Europe (18.5-9.5) |
You must confirm your public display name before commenting
Please logout and then login again, you will then be prompted to enter your display name.