The John Deere Classic features a varied field and, with the tournament taking place before a hectic two week stretch over the pond in the UK, now is the time for a surprising name to spring out of the pack.
There's value to be had all over the field at TPC Deere Run and, if you take a look at those playing, you will notice some excellent sleeper picks at incredibly generous odds.
Davis Thompson returns to defend his title
At last week's Rocket Classic, Aldrich Potgieter claimed the title and his maiden PGA Tour win. Prior to the event, the 20-year-old South African was as high as +10000 (100/1) with some bookmakers.
Scoring at TPC Deere Run is often low, with the winning total being above 20-under-par in eight of the last 10 editions of the event.
Coming into this year's tournament, there are many players in-form, as well as several individuals who possess excellent results in previous John Deere Classics.
Either way, we at Golf Monthly have scoured through the odds and results to determine our sleeper picks at the John Deere Classic, specifically the outsiders worth an each-way punt.
Chan Kim - +12000 (120/1)
Kim has made over 100 PGA Tour starts and more than $3.5 million, but is yet to win on the circuit, surprisingly. He looks like a good sleeper pick to me as he was T12 here last year and posted a solid T19 at the Rocket Classic, where he gained strokes on the field in every key metric.
The 35-year-old is a proven winner, with eight Japan Golf Tour wins and two Korn Ferry Tour titles. Why he hasn’t won, or even had a runner-up finish, on the PGA Tour yet is somewhat of a mystery, but I have a good feeling he can put in a solid display this week.
Takumi Kanaya - +17000 (170/1)
Driving accuracy is a premium this week at TPC Deere Run and not many find more fairways than Takumi Kanaya. The Japanese star is a former World No.1 amateur with seven Japan Golf Tour wins and a victory on the Asian Tour’s International Series.
Kanaya’s game is in good shape after making the cut last week to finish T46 at the Rocket Classic, which ended a run of five missed cuts to suggest that he has found something in his game. His best finish of the year, so far, was a T5 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson so I’m hoping he can do something similar this week in Illinois.
Matt McCarty - +7500 (75/1)
It's safe to say that McCarty's results have varied over the last few months, with the American registering three missed cuts in seven starts. However, in the four times he has made the cut, he has put in T4, T14, T15 and T19 finishes.
Bursting on the scene last year with a victory at the Black Desert Championship, the 27-year-old knows how to win a PGA Tour tournament and, with McCarty ranking 27th in driving accuracy and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting, he is an eye-catching bet at these odds.
Thriston Lawrence - +7500 (75/1)
Since his T12 finish at the US Open, Lawrence seems to have turned a corner in terms of form, with the South African backing up that strong Major finish with a T8 at the Rocket Classic, his first top 10 on the PGA Tour
This new-found confidence is great to see and, at the Rocket Classic, Lawrence ranked 12th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach-to-Green, areas which are key at TPC Deere Run. Ranking first in driving accuracy as well last week, this is a course that should suit his game, hence why I'm backing Lawrence to continue his resurgence.
Keith Mitchell - +5500 (55/1)
Potentially sailing quite close to the wind in terms of being a favorite, Mitchell's outside price just about allows him to fall into the sleeper category, in my opinion. Either way, something close to +5000 for a guy who is in the top 20 for adjusted scoring average on the PGA Tour, and fifth in terms of birdie average, seems well worth a punt.
While he missed the cut at the Rocket Classic and has struggled on the greens of late, I'm viewing that as a positive as it could mean expectations are lower and Mitchell will feel the pressure is off him. With a top 20 and top 10 here in the past, there's every chance it could all come together and Mitchell finally adds another PGA Tour win.
Sami Valimaki - +10000 (100/1)
The John Deere Classic could be Valimaki's time to shine given it is relatively forgiving off the tee (the Finn's obvious weakness) and requires a helluva lot of birdies.
Valimaki is incredible with the putter in hand - he ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting - and has largely been good from tee to green once the driver is put away. He has plenty of power should he tighten up the driver, and a T12 finish at TPC Deere Run last year tells me he likes this place. Coming off the back of a top 20 at the Rocket Classic, he's certainly worth a look.
Mark Hubbard - +5000 (50/1)
Along the same lines as Valimaki, I really like Hubbard's chances. He ranks one place behind Valimaki in the field this week, as one of the top 5 players to tee it up at John Deere Classic based on his performances in the last three months.
A decent run of form, including two top-seven finishes in May and a T13 finish last time out, has contributed to Hubbard arriving at TPC Deere Run primed to contend - especially when you consider he has also finished in the top 10 on his last two John Deere Classic starts. Great price, great chance - love it!
Sami Valimaki - +10000 (100/1)
A solid performance on debut at the John Deere Classic in 2024 was enough to send me down the Valimaki rabbit hole this week, and I like what I've found along the way.
He statistically ranks as the fourth best player in the field based on data from the last three months, and finished in the top 20 on his last PGA Tour start. That forms a wider run of respectable form, with five top 20 finishes in his last nine starts, so I can see him building on the experience of last year to challenge once again at a very generous price.
You must confirm your public display name before commenting
Please logout and then login again, you will then be prompted to enter your display name.