For over half of the 49-man field in this week's BMW Championship, their opportunity to reach the Tour Championship at East Lake remains on a knife's edge.
Even 50th-place JT Poston still has a shot at not only progressing through to the final tournament of the season, but he can also fly into the top-10 should he manage to pull off a surprise win.
Then there are those around the bubble, who are all aware a bad few days in the no-cut event could cost them not only a few dollars but potentially a chance at playing in the Ryder Cup.
While players like Scottie Scheffler, the returning Rory McIlroy and even the absent Sepp Straka can relax to a certain extent knowing their futures are already locked up, everyone involved will still be jostling for position given there is another round of FedEx Cup Playoffs bonus payments due once the action has concluded at Caves Valley.
With the stakes so high in Maryland, it will be vitally important to make a fast start at a course which flowed with birdies last time the BMW Championship was staged here.
McIlroy was one of three to shoot 64 in the opening round of the 2021 BMW Championship at Caves Valley
Back in 2021, McIlroy, Sam Burns and Jon Rahm all flew out of the gates via rounds of 64 and co-led through 18 holes. However, none of them could maintain that hot start as Patrick Cantlay defeated Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff after both reached 27-under through 72 holes.
Four years later, we've taken a look at who might make the best start this time around and listed a couple of likely contenders for first-round leader at the 2025 BMW Championship.
BMW Championship First-Round Leaders 2025
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Scottie Scheffler FRL +750 @ BetMGM
Admittedly, it's hardly the most brave of calls, but I like Scheffler as first-round leader for a lot of reasons. Firstly, his Thursday scoring average among all PGA Tour players is the second best behind Keith Mitchell at 67.65 (Mitchell is 67.58).
Then there is the overall adjusted and total scoring average through all four rounds standing at 68.24, where he is No.1 on the PGA Tour, suggesting that the chances of a lower score in round one are slightly higher from Scheffler compared to anyone else.
Scheffler is second in birdie average, first in bogey avoidance and he has the highest birdie-or-better percentage of anyone on the PGA Tour.
Another factor which helps the four-time Major winner's case is the fact that he finished third last week without being able to showcase his best stuff. Scheffler is World No.1 for a reason. Those adjustments will surely be made quickly and he could come out firing at Caves Valley.
In 2021, when the BMW Championship was last held here, Scheffler opened up with a 73 but then went 68 or lower in all three rounds thereafter. Given that he is a far superior player to even three years ago, the signs are ominous for the rest of the field.
Ben Griffin FRL +3300 @ BetMGM
If you are looking for a touch more value from your first-round leader pick, I think Ben Griffin might well be the way to go. The American is keen for another good performance to add another nail into his Ryder Cup selection claims, so motivation will be high this week.
His round one scoring average is 69.16 this season, and only a handful of players left in the FedEx Cup Playoffs can better that. Plus, including his win at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Griffin has opened up with scores of 66 or 67 in six of his seven most recent top-25 results, so the form is there.
The two-time PGA Tour winner also has a history of leading tournaments after the first round, with his most recent effort coming at the Memorial Tournament in June.
Griffin is 11th in SG: Total this term and eighth in total scoring average, highlighting just how well he has been playing all year, not just since his win. Although he did not play this event when it was last hosted at Caves Valley in 2021, Griffin is now competing at the highest level and I have no doubt he will take to the task like a duck to water this week.
How To Watch BMW Championship Round One
US/ET
- Thursday, August 14 - Round One: 2:00pm - 6:00pm (Golf Channel/NBC Sports App)
UK/BST
- Thursday, August 14 - Round One: 5:00pm - 11:00pm (Sky Sports Golf)
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