Farmers Insurance Open Betting Tips 2026: Bazza's Best Bets At Torrey Pines

I'll kick off my Farmers Insurance Open betting tips with a moan about how difficult the landscape for picking winners on the PGA Tour is right now.

While I celebrated my colleague, Elliott Heath, tipping Patrick Reed to win the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour, I was sweating on my tip, 54-hole leader Si Woo Kim, at the American Express.

Problem is, when you are leading by one but being chased by Scottie Scheffler, the outcome feels pretty inevitable.

I stand by the pick, as I was never going to back Scottie at minuscule odds, but it does seem like a win for the World No.1 is the only logical outcome whenever he tees it up.

Anyway, no Scheffler this week, so game on at the Farmers.

Brooks Koepka and Xander Schauffele make their first PGA Tour start of the season, with the former also making a much-anticipated return to the tour from LIV Golf at the Farmers Insurance Open this week.

With plenty of big names to choose from, and some great value throughout the board, who are Baz and the expert betting panel at Golf Monthly HQ tipping for success at Torrey Pines?

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Tips 2026

Tips by...

Tips by...

Baz Plummer

For any first time readers of my betting tips, I'm Baz. I have years of experience writing golf betting content across the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LPGA Tour and LIV Golf - plus all the men's and women's Majors. I have successfully picked three of the last five men's Major winners, utilising a heavily-researched and data-driven formula which centres around a clear mantra... follow the trends! You can find my best bets in my weekly column, 'Bazza's Best Bets' via the Golf Monthly betting hub.

Pick One: Jason Day To Win (+2800) @ BetMGM

Jason Day feels like an absolute no-brainer based on his runner-up finish at the American Express last week and his clear affinity with Torrey Pines.

The Australian has won this event twice in the past (2015 and 2018) and has also been runner-up, third and inside the top-10 on seven occasions.

Day excels on Poa Annua, the putting surface at Torrey Pines, but he also ranked first for Strokes Gained: Putting last week.

After rediscovering a bit of form towards the back end of 2025, and starting 2026 so well, I believe we could be about to see a big year for Jason Day.

Pick Two: Hideki Matsuyama To Win (+2500) @ BetMGM

Hideki Matsuyama has started his year with a win inside the first six events in all but one of his last four seasons on the PGA Tour, and I believe he could do the same again here.

Matsuyama already won the Hero World Challenge before Christmas, and the Sentry at the start of 2025, but his T13 finish at the Sony Open most recently was also very encouraging.

His tournament form is equally impressive, having missed the cut just twice in twelve attempts and posted a best finish of 3rd in 2019. Matsuyama's elite ball striking and creative short game also make him a strong selection at Torrey Pines.

Value Bet: Wyndham Clark To Win (+4500) @ BetMGM

Wyndham Clark is great value in this tournament, considering the skillset he possesses. The former US Open champion is a big hitter, ranking 9th for driving distance on the PGA Tour this season, which is a huge asset at Torrey Pines.

Clark has also won big events, including the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and, of course, the US Open, which bodes well in a tournament which typically produces high-profile winners.

Clark was excellent last week at the American Express, including a second round 64, but a slow finish nudged him down the leaderboard. If he can build on that performance, he has a great chance this week.

Heart Over Head Bet: Marco Penge To Win (+5500) @ BetMGM

I'm aware that Marco Penge arriving with a shiny new PGA Tour card in his hand and winning at the first attempt is unlikely, especially at a track like Torrey Pines, but if anyone can take on this brute of a course on 'debut', it's him.

I say debut in that way because Penge has made a few co-sanctioned starts in the past, but this is the debut proper and I sneakily fancy him to contend.

Penge hits the golf ball an absolute mile and was fantastic on the DP World Tour last year. He competed well at the PGA Championship last season, finishing T28 on another tricky track, but he also finished T2 in a strong field at the Genesis Scottish Open.

With new gear in his bag, and plenty of potential in his future, I fancy Penge to make a statement this week at a big price.

Elliott Heath

Elliott Heath is our News Editor and has been with Golf Monthly since early 2016 after graduating with a degree in Sports Journalism. He manages the Golf Monthly news team as well as our large Facebook, X and Instagram pages. He covered the 2022 and 2025 Masters from Augusta National and was there by the 18th green to watch Rory McIlroy complete the career grand slam. He has also covered five Open Championships on-site including the 150th at St Andrews.

Pick One: Taylor Pendrith To Win (+4000) @ BetMGM

The Canadian played well here last year to finish T7th and was also T9th in 2024 and T16th in 2022 so I’m expecting him to feature again.

He began the year with a T6 at the Sony and then missed the cut last week by a single stroke despite shooting 10-under-par for 54 holes.

He lost strokes on the greens in a tournament that is considered to be a putting competition, so I don’t think there’s much to be worried about.

He gained strokes off the tee and with his approaches, which bodes well for Torrey Pines, and considering his course form I like his chances.

Pick Two: Nicolai Hojgaard To Win (+5000) @ BetMGM

The 2023 Ryder Cupper was 2nd here to Matthieu Pavon in 2024 and arrives at Torrey Pines after a very long flight from Dubai - but I’m sure he flew first class and I’m hopeful he brought his A game with him after a T4 finish at the Dubai Desert Classic, where he finished strong with three birdies in his closing six holes.

The big-hitting Dane was winless in 2024 and 2025 but he has finished top-14 in four of his last five starts and I’m backing him to keep this run of form going considering the golf he played here in San Diego two years ago.

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Tips by...

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Matt Cradock

Matt joined Golf Monthly in February 2021 covering weekend news, before also transitioning to equipment and testing. After freelancing for Golf Monthly and The PGA for 18 months, he was offered a full-time position at the company in October 2022 and continues to cover news and social media.

Pick One: Jason Day To Win (+2800) @ BetMGM

After a strong showing at The American Express, where Day finished in a share of second place that included rounds of 63, 71, 67 and 64, I believe he will carry on his strong form at a course where he's enjoyed successes previously.

Claiming the Farmers Insurance Open in 2015 and 2018, Day's record at Torrey Pines is excellent and, with his equipment beginning to in-grain itself following months of hard graft, I think now is the time the Australian ends his two year winless duck and makes it a hat-trick in San Diego.

Pick Two: Max Homa To Win (+4500) Or Top-5 Finish @ BetMGM

Like Day, Homa has been grafting hard to find the right equipment for his game and, at The American Express, he found a strong T27th result that signifies to me that perhaps the American is turning a corner.

Finishing T9th at the Bank of Utah Championship in October, as well as T14th at the Nedbank Golf Challenge, Homa has strong form on courses where he's had success previously and, being a former winner of the Farmers Insurance Open, I'm applying that logic to what should, hopefully, be a strong week for the six-time PGA Tour winner.

Tips by...

Tips by...

Jonny Leighfield

Jonny Leighfield is our Staff News Writer who joined Golf Monthly just in time for the 2023 Solheim Cup and Ryder Cup. He graduated from the University of Brighton with a degree in Sport Journalism in 2017 and spent almost five years as the sole sports reporter at his local newspaper. During his time with Golf Monthly, Jonny has interviewed several stars of the game, including Robert MacIntyre, Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood, and Joaquin Niemann.

Pick One: Cameron Young To Win (+2200) @ BetMGM

Notwithstanding Cameron Young's mix of results at this event in two previous attempts (T20th/MC), I think there are a couple of encouraging reasons supporting a Young victory this week.

Firstly, his form leading up to the end of 2025 was sublime and the difference in his game since landing that first PGA Tour win has been night and day. Secondly, his distance off the tee will be hugely beneficial at one of the longest courses on the PGA Tour.

His putting at Torrey Pines has let Young down before, but he appears to have turned a corner with the flats tick and, as a result, I believe he will be in contention come Sunday.

Pick Two: Brooks Koepka To Win (+5000) @ BetMGM

If I'm honest, this is closer to being a vibes pick than having data and other evidence to back up my theory.

Koepka is making his first start since returning from LIV and I can't help but imagine how good a story it will be if he wins.

To be honest, it's fairly unlikely given he hasn't played competitively in months and there will be a circus around him this week, but stranger things have happened, so why not?

Golf Monthly Expert Betting Panel Winning Picks (Since Start Of 2025)