US Open Special Bets 2026: First-Round Leader Picks, Lowest Round & Big Name To Miss The Cut

It's going to be a tough test at a windy Shinnecock Hills this week which could make it a pretty tough US Open to call.

The favorites remain the Scottie Schefflers and the Rory McIlroys of this world, but outside of the outright winners there's a number of other betting markets to go at.

As always we've got our Betting Panel's outright picks, along with some sleeper selections worth adding to the shortlist to lift the US Open trophy on Sunday.

But let's look at a few other wagers to consider...

First- round leader

Patrick Reed is a popular pick to win the whole thing at Shinnecock Hills, and rightly so given the form he's in and the conditions he'll face at the US Open.

It'll be a windy week so ball flight and shot-shaping will be key, as will scrambling around the greens, getting up and down and putting - all in the wheelhouse of the 2018 Masters champion.

He finished fourth here at the US Open that same year in 2018 when his scores actually improved every round - but that experience and course knowledge should ensure he hits the ground running this time around.

With no LIV Golf, Reed has not played in between the last two Majors but that's not been an issue as he's finished T12 at The Masters and T10 at the PGA Championship, but more importantly he's made fast starts at both of those.

Reed was third after round one at Augusta National and T8 at Aronimink just a shot off the lead, with his average first-round score in his eight starts this year a fine 68.8.

Back Patrick Reed as first-round leader at +5500 (55/1) at BetMGM

First-round leader - top five

Basically a next best here for first-round leader with Chris Gotterup, who you can back to be outright first-round leader at +6000 (60/1) but also go the safer way with a top-five after 18 holes.

Gotterup is 13th in first-round scoring average on the PGA Tour this season and he looks to have a decent profile for the US Open test with his Scottish Open victory last year followed by a third at The Open.

That shows he can play in links conditions, and the wind at Shinnecock may call for similar shot making abilities, while he's now a regular contender at the Majors - with a top-10 finish at the PGA Championship.

He's not a traditional fast starter but conditions here could lead to a survival of the fittest test in the opening round, with Gotterup well capable of being there or thereabouts.

Back Chris Gotterup top five after round one at +1200 (12/1) with BetMGM

Top five for Tyrrell

Tyrrell Hatton was close to getting a shout as a first-round leader as he's shot in the 60s in all eight first rounds on LIV Golf this season - but instead we'll play the long game and back him to be in the frame come Sunday.

He's just won at Valderrama as the famous 'Nappy Factor' struck again with Hatton winning his first event since becoming a father for the first time - with Sunday being Father's Day don't rule out a second straight English Major victory.

The further signs are also good - with Hatton finishing sixth at Shinnecock in 2018 and fourth last year at Oakmont showing both event and course form, usually a fine combo.

Throw in his three victories at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship showing his ability to play in the wind in links conditions and there's a lot to like about his chances this week.

Back Tyrrell Hatton for top five at +650 (13/2) with BetMGM

Lowest round of the US Open

2018 U.S. Open - Tommy Fleetwood's Sizzling 63 - YouTube

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Can lightning strike twice? Let's hope so as we back Tommy Fleetwood to repeat his heroics from 2018 and stick in a really low one at Shinnecock Hills.

Fleetwood came flying home on Sunday last time the US Open was here, shooting an unbelievable 63 in the final round to almost go and pinch the title away from Brooks Koepka.

Fleetwood is the only man in history to shoot 63 twice in the US Open, as he also did it in 2023 in LA, again in the final round - so although we may have to wait until Sunday Fleetwood could well bring home the bacon for us again.

The Englishman arrives in decent form as well, with a T11 in Canada including a round of 65, so he's in low-scoring form.

Back Tommy Fleetwood for lowest round of the tournament at +500 (5/1) with BetMGM

To miss the cut

He couldn't make it an unwanted hat-trick could he? Bryson DeChambeau was the Major man for a couple of years but he's been struggling in 2026 with back-to-back missed cuts at The Masters and PGA Championship.

DeChambeau's been fine on LIV Golf but just can't translate it to the Majors so far - and it's hard to believe that his tour's uncertain future hasn't had a big part to play in that.

It's surely on his mind, and he's been spending time helping CEO Scott ONeil meet with investors and building business plans - that all adds up and it's not the ideal scenario ahead of a US Open where patience and precision is paramount.

He's also turned up with a prototype TaylorMade driver in the bag at Shinnecock so there's just a few too many question marks about Bryson right now. He could easily show up and contend again, but those negatives are too much to ignore.

Back Bryson DeChambeau to miss the cut at +180 (9/5) with BetMGM

A hole-in-one?

It's been raining holes-in-one at the US Open in recent times with at least one at the last three tournaments. There was one last year at Oakmont, two in 2024 at Pinehurst and THREE in 2023 at LA Country Club.

There have been 54 holes-in-one in US Open history, with two at Shinnecock Hills during the five times it has hosted the event.

Spencer Levin scored an ace in 2004 at the 17th as he finished as low amateur at the tournament, with Gary Hallberg holing his tee shot on the 7th in 1995 as the only other hole-in-one at the venue.

Only one of the four par-3s this week is over 200 yards so they're all well within range, although the 11th with that green is about as hard a short hole as you could imagine so you can put a line through that being a chance for a one.

Some rain may give players chances at the others though if the greens aren't as firm and fast at the start of the week.

Back a hole-in-one at -106 (10/11) with BetMGM