Can A 100/1+ Outsider Win The Open? 7 Best Longshots For Royal Birkdale
The Golf Monthly team pick out their favorite high-odds players for the final men's Major of 2026
The Open draws a conclusion to the 2026 men's Major golf season with the sensational Royal Birkdale hosting the world's best.
Scottie Scheffler is favorite to retain his Claret Jug ahead of the likes of Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and Jon Rahm, but with the unpredictability of links golf, it could be anyone's tournament to win.
So that's why we've had a look at some longshots worth backing, especially as we've seen some players contend at very big odds in recent years.
Harris English finished 2nd at 110/1 last year with 350/1 Haotong Li in 4th. Two years ago, 250/1 Billy Horschel finished 2nd, just ahead of 600/1 Thriston Lawrence in 4th.
Three years ago, Brian Haman won at odds of 110/1, which were the same as Zach Johnson's in 2015 when he triumphed at St Andrews.
So, which potential Open contenders are being overlooked this week in the odds? Here are some of our team's picks...
2026 Open outsider betting picks
Eugenio Chacarra
There are lots of extremely good options at 100/1 and beyond, and Casey Jarvis at 250/1, Bernd Wiesberger at 400/1 in some places and Haotong Li at 200/1 have really caught my eye.
However, my pick is Eugenio Chacarra at 150/1.
Those odds are incredible for someone who has won two times in their last three starts in Europe.
He's never played The Open before, which is an obvious negative, but at that price, I'm taking the gamble.
I would like to caveat this by saying that I can't see anyone north of 40/1 winning this tournament, but if I had to pick a 100/1+ punt this week with some each-way value... I'd speculatively opt for Max Homa.
He seemed to have found something at the John Deere Classic, when finishing runner-up, but he was also T9 at The Masters this year - so perhaps Max is on his way back to his best. Homa also has two top-20 finishes at the Scottish Open and has a 10th place finish at The Open on his CV.
I was also close to going for Marco Penge at a big price, but I will side with Max on this occasion.
Read more: Bazza's Best Bets For The 2026 Open
Corey Conners
One of the best ball-strikers on the planet, Corey Conners also has a sneaky good record on links courses.
The Canadian was T10th at Royal Portrush last year and has a top-10 at the Scottish Open in 2024, too.
Too often, he's let down by his putter at these championships, but even a solid week could see Conners create history by becoming the first Canadian ever to win the Claret Jug.
As I said, he's a top ball-striker and Royal Birkdale requires precision. A good week on the greens and he could prove to be a shock winner.
Brian Harman
What about the Champion Golfer of the Year of just three years ago who’s finished in the top 10 at the Open Championship in three of his last four appearances?
Brian Harman has some top Claret Jug credentials but is still a big outsider.
The left-hander lapped the field at Hoylake, admittedly in much different conditions to Birkdale this week, but fast and firm means accuracy is key over length, precision over power, and lag putting, even from way off the greens, needs to be on point.
Harman’s recent form has been stinky, but he made the cut in Scotland at least and he really turns it on at The Open. He’s gone 10-60-1-6-19 in his last five Opens with his scoring average of 69.60 the fourth best over that spell – only Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele can better that.
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Ryan Gerard
I admit he's making his Open Championship debut, but Gerard is showing some excellent form in 2026, with some great results coming in notable events.
Producing three runner-up finishes this season, including The Memorial Tournament, the American finished T26th at last week's Genesis Scottish Open, indicating that he does have form on links layouts.
What I particularly like about Gerard is his overall game statistics. When it comes to Strokes Gained, he ranks inside the top 50 for every metric on the PGA Tour, aside from Around-the-Green.
On a Royal Birkdale layout that promises to be firm and fast, control of the golf ball will be key, which is why I really like Gerard at a high price.
Jordan Smith
The Englishman could well earn punters some money this week at such long odds.
He has enjoyed a steady 2026 but showed glimpses of some superb form in Scotland last week, most notably his second-round 63.
He eventually finished in a tie for 21st but, trending in the right direction, he could be in the mix at Royal Brikdale
Jason Day
I believe the Open champion will be the player who chips and putts the best this week at Royal Birkdale, and there aren't many better than Jason Day.
The former World No.1 is understandably at high odds due to his withdrawal from the US Open last month, but he did play all four days at The Travelers before two full weeks off before the year's final Major.
Hopefully his body can stand up to the test and we can see some vintage Day over the Southport links. He missed The Open cut last year but was T13 in 2024 and T2nd in 2023 so I'll be hoping for something similar this week.
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