US Open 2026 Betting Tips: Bazza's Best Bets At Shinnecock Hills

It's US Open week and the best players in the world are descending on Shinnecock Hills.

The USGA has vowed to 'let Shinnecock be Shinnecock', so we expect the famous venue to shine while also terrorising a very strong field.

Shinnecock Hills has a links-style feel to it, so I'd be interested in exploring players that have good Open Championship form, but the greens are the difference maker here.

A excellent short game is crucial, as even the best ball strikers will miss their fair share of greens, but a penchant for putting on poa annua will also be helpful.

After exploring correlating course form, diving into the Strokes Gained data and following US Open trends - our betting expert Baz Plummer believes he has found four great value tips that can contend for Major silverware this week...

US Open 2026 Betting Tips

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Baz Plummer

For any first time readers of my betting tips, I'm Baz. I have years of experience writing golf betting content across the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LPGA Tour and LIV Golf - plus all the men's and women's Majors. I have successfully picked three of the last five men's Major winners, utilising a heavily-researched and data-driven formula which centres around a clear mantra... follow the trends! You can find my best bets in my weekly column, 'Bazza's Best Bets' via the Golf Monthly betting hub.

Bazza's Best Bets

Top Tip: Xander Schauffele To Win @ BetMGM

Xander Schauffele is on this card for a number of reasons, but his Major record is perhaps the most significant.

Despite having a turbulent period since winning two Majors in 2024, Schauffele has maintained an excellent record on the biggest stages.

He has four top-10s and a 12th place finish in his last six Major starts and his worst finish in eight US Open appearances is tied-14th!

That's insanely good form over a long period of time, in what is one of the toughest events on the calendar every single year, so he warrants his pick in my opinion.

Schauffele was 6th at Shinnecock Hills in 2018, but he also has great correlating course form, with four top-12 finishes at Copperhead and a win at Royal Troon.

When you consider he has a top-5 finish at both Riviera and Torrey Pines, which also have poa annua putting surfaces, there really is so much to like about Xander's chances.

Next Best Tip: Tommy Fleetwood To Win @ BetMGM

I have been saying for some time that I have earmarked the US Open and Open Championship in 2026 as great opportunities for Tommy Fleetwood to seal a maiden Major win - and I am sticking to that narrative.

Fleetwood was 4th at the Memorial Championship recently, on a tough golf course, plus he played really well on the west coast earlier in the season - showing that putting on poa annua isn't going to be a problem for him.

The 2025 Tour Champion was 2nd at Shinnecock Hills in 2018, so clearly suits the test that the track poses, but he also has great links pedigree and experience which will be crucial on this layout.

While his Major form has been a bit sketchy, the US Open is arguably where his best performances have come.

He ranks 6th for driving accuracy, which is going to be very important this week, plus he has a great short game. If the stars align, we could finally see Tommy get the job done!

Form Tip: Sam Burns To Win @ BetMGM

Sam Burns is rounding into form just in time for the US Open - in a very similar fashion to last year.

On that occasion, he finished T12 at the Memorial, lost in a play-off in Canada and was desperately close to winning a first Major at Oakmont. The pesky weather delay scuppered his chances, but he is entering this week in very similar form - so has a great chance to go one better.

Burns is a fantastic putter, one of the best in the game in fact, but he has also shown a decent amount of short game prowess on similar correlating courses in the past.

If he can put himself in position on these tough greens, there are few I fancy more to sink the necessary putts to stick with the leading pack.

Value Tip: Patrick Reed To Win @ BetMGM

Patrick Reed is having a phenomenal season so far and is well on his way to securing a return to the PGA Tour courtesy of a pair of wins on the DP World Tour.

His Major stock is on the rise again also, with three consecutive top-12 finishes in his last three. His best ever US Open finish came at Shinnecock Hills in 2018, perhaps because you need to possess a superb short game to contend.

He certainly has that, but he is also fairly accurate off the tee and ranks 11th for SG: Tee To Green.

Reed has played two tournaments since the Joburg Open in early March - The Masters and the PGA Championship. This will be the third, at the US Open, so he is clearly prioritising Majors as he pursues a PGA Tour return.

I don't mind that at all. It's a strategy that seems to be working for him so far, so I expect him to be close on Sunday.

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Elliott Heath

Pick One: Xander Schauffele To Win @ BetMGM

The two-time Major champion has an incredible US Open record with a worst finish of T14th.

The gritty American does not have his best game as things stand - and hasn't really since the 2024 season pre-rib injury - but he still managed a T7 at Aronimink last month and he arrives on Long Island fresh from a week off where I am hoping he has sharpened up things.

He was T6 last time Shinnecock hosted in 2018, plays tough courses very well and is one I believe comes in under the radar this week.

Pick One: Cameron Smith To Win @ BetMGM

After six consecutive Major missed cuts, Cameron Smith made quite a statement last month at Aronimink to finish T7th alongside Schauffele.

He followed that with a T16 at LIV Korea and a T5 at LIV Andalucia. The 2022 Open champion has undoubtedly fallen off since joining LIV Golf but there are lots of signs that he is getting back closer to his best.

He has experience of playing Shinnecock Hills, albeit only two rounds in 2018, and has a best US Open finish of 4th in 2023. When he's on he's a joy to watch and his short game as well as his experience should come in very handy this week.

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Matt Cradock

Pick One: Jon Rahm To Win @ BetMGM

Continuing to produce strong results on the LIV Golf League, highlighted by a runner-up finish at Valderrama, it’s Rahm’s showing at the PGA Championship that’s catching my eye, as he finished T2nd.

His lack of Major form has been the biggest question mark since joining LIV, but it seems that it might be returning and, on a course where approach play and short game is a necessity, Shinnecock should suit Rahm down to the ground.

Pick Two: Patrick Reed To Win @ BetMGM

In all honesty, I was stuck between Reed and Wyndham Clark for my outside pick, but I’ve opted for the former because of his Major record and previous course form.

Reed finished solo fourth in 2018 at Shinnecock Hills, firing a two-under final round in the process. What’s more, in 2026, the American produced two top-12 finishes at The Masters and PGA Championship, while also winning twice on the DP World Tour.

Admittedly, he hasn’t played much, if any, competitive golf since the PGA Championship, but I’m hoping this is a sign Reed is well rested going into the US Open.

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Jonny Leighfield

Pick One: Matt Fitzpatrick To Win @ BetMGM

The process of picking a winner this week has been the toughest this season so far with up to eight names making my initial shortlist.

Through a pain-staking process of elimination that focused on GIR, record on north-east courses and current form, I've arrived at Matt Fitzpatrick.

Coming off a second place finish in Canada suggests he's full of confidence and the Englishman appears in the form of his life otherwise.

His US Open record (win aside) isn't spectacular, but his GIR data this term is outstanding and he's only failed to gain strokes on the field in that metric once from 14 starts.

Plus, his US Open victory arrived at Brookline, so the area has good memories for Fitzpatrick. I believe he will make some more at Shinnecock Hills.

Pick Two: Patrick Reed To Win @ BetMGM

In a similar vein, picking an outsider with a legitimate chance of winning was ridiculously tough. Put plainly, I don't think an outsider will win. But if there's one man who might be capable, it's Patrick Reed.

The American's game fits the profile required with his world-class approach game and putting ability, and a 4th-place finish here in 2018 shows he likes the layout. The only issue - and it is a fairly big one - is that Reed has only played both Majors in the past three months as far as competitive golf goes.

Whether he can pick up where he left off again remains to be seen, but it's slim pickings as far as outsiders go, so I'm willing to roll the dice.

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