Pebble Beach Pro-Am Prop Picks: Back Nick Taylor To Shine Again

This week, the PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Tom Jacobs is here to provide some of his favorite prop picks for this event.

Nick Taylor Iron Shot at the Sony Open
(Image credit: Getty Images)

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is an event that still holds a big place in many a people's heart, even as the fields weaken, and the rounds get longer!

Not only will we see some of the best golfers in the world tee it up this week at Pebble (although not as many as we would like), we will also see regulars like Bill Murray and Ray Romano play in the Celebrity section of this event, alongside the recently retired, Gareth Bale! There is plenty of excitement surrounding Bale and his swing, after Jon Rahm claimed Bale "has no business being that good at golf".

Outside of the celebrities though, this field is spearheaded by former Masters champion, Jordan Spieth, former U.S. Amateur champion, Viktor Hovland, who won that title at this course, and the current U.S. Open champion, Matt Fitzpatrick. In all, this gives the event three players from inside the top 16 of the Official World Golf Ranking.

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Below are our favorite Pebble Beach Pro-Am prop picks!

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Start Time, Where to Watch

  • Date - Thursday, 2nd February - Sunday, 5th February 2023
  • Television - Thursday-Friday, 3 p.m.-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Saturday, 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-7 p.m. (CBS). Sunday, 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6:30 p.m. (CBS).
  • Where - Pebble Beach, Monterey Peninsula

2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Best Prop Picks

Without further ado, here are our favorite prop picks for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Nick Taylor to finish inside the top 20 (+280) Get these odds at DraftKings now

Nick Taylor is a former winner of this event, as he went wire-to-wire in 2020, holding off, 5-time Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner, Phil Mickelson, as well as Kevin Streelman, Jason Day, and Daniel Berger.

His four-stroke victory shows just how dominant he was all week. He started the week off in hot fashion with an opening-round 63, and while his scores went backwards as the week went on (66-69-70), he played plenty good enough to steer well clear of the field.

Before his victory in this event, Taylor had already finished 10th here, and he has also finished 14th since, so there is absolutely no reason to think the Canadian cannot top 20 this week. 

In eight starts here, Taylor has missed just one cut, and finished 43rd or better in every other start. With a win, a 10th and a 14th, he has hit this top 20 mark 37.5% of the time at this event, and his current form suggests he can make it four top-20's in nine starts here.

Taylor has finished 6th, 7th, and 19th already on Tour this season, so he has hit this magic number 3 times out of 8 this season, the same strike record he holds in this event. That 7th came just two starts ago at the Sony Open, showing his game is in good enough shape to compete at a familiar set of courses.

Russell Knox to finish inside the top 20 (+290) Get these odds at FanDuel now

Experienced PGA Tour professionals are the order of the day this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, so I will make no apologies for starting my prop picks off with two veterans. 

Russell Knox is a great candidate for a Pebble Beach Prop Bet, because he still looks a little way off contending for the win, but is more than capable of placing at this event. 

The Scotsman has finished 7th, 14th, 15th, 27th, 28th and 33rd when making the weekend here, which he has done on 6 out of 9 visits.

When 7th in 2021, Knox was one back of Jordan Spieth going into the final round, but was given a one-stroke penalty on the first hole, and was unable to put enough birdies on the board as the day went on. 

Knox ranks 4th in this field over the past 15 weeks in SG Approach which suggests his irons and wedges are in fine fettle, and if he can now get his short game firing, at a set of courses he is more than comfortable with at this point, he can threaten the top of the leaderboard.

This would be Knox's first top 20 of the season, but he has made seven-straight cuts, including a T21 finish in Bermuda, suggesting he's striking the ball well enough to capitalize on a good short-game week, when it comes.

Matt Fitzpatrick to be the Top European (+300) Get these odds at PointsBet

Talent-wise at the top of this field, it is close between Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Viktor Hovland, but when it comes to reliability, Fitzpatrick is arguably the best of the three right now.

Add that to the fact he finished 6th in this event last year, and 12th in the 2019 U.S. Open, and it is far to say Fitzpatrick likes this place.

There is the worry that the biggest part of Fitzpatrick's rise has been his elite off the tee game, and that will be somewhat negated here, but that didn't negatively affect him 12 months ago, so why worry now?

Rather than back in the top 5 or top 10 market where he has to take on Jordan Spieth, take him in this Top European market, where his biggest threat is Viktor Hovland. The latter has been inconsistent at times and while he is more than capable of spoiling the party, I will take Fitz against Hovland and a group of other strong contenders in this market. 

For more Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks, check out the below, as our expert handicappers give their favorite picks for this week's PGA Tour event.

Tom Jacobs

In addition to hosting the Lost Fore Words golf podcast, Tom Jacobs has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, and has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer on the weekends!