Genesis Scottish Open Betting Picks and Predictions

The Genesis Scottish Open is currently the only co-sanctioned event between the PGA and DP World Tour. It is one of the five tournaments that is part of the Rolex Series, so it also doubles as one of the DP World Tour's five premier events. For the second time ever, it will also provide FedEx Cup points as well. The event has been played on several different courses, but in 2019, it moved to the Renaissance Club. We’ve seen a wide variety of different scoring conditions at Tom Doak’s modern links design, and like most coastal courses in the area, the wind completely dictates how challenging the course will play. In 2021, Min Woo Lee defeated Matt Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry in a playoff at 18 under, and yet last year, it only took a winning score of seven under-par for Xander Schauffele to triumph. While this event is always the week before the Open Championship, it still receives an incredibly strong field. Schauffele will return to defend his title, and he will be met by a worthy crop of challengers, including World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Viktor Hovland, amongst others.

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Genesis Scottish Open: Course Preview

The Renaissance Club

The Renaissance Club is a modern links design from the mind of one of our most well-regarded current architects, Tom Doak. About 20 miles east of Edinburgh, the Renaissance Club is not far from some of the most iconic links courses in Scotland such as North Berwick and Muirfield. While it pales in comparison to many of the classics, this event is still a wonderful change of pace from the uniform target golf that we have grown accustomed to each week on the PGA Tour. The course features five par threes and four par fives, and while two of the par threes are quite short (147 and 161 yards), the other three all measure above 200 yards. Seven of the par fours also measure over 445 yards, so it should not come as a surprise that that nearly 50% of all approach shots come from over 175 yards. Under blistery conditions, the Renaissance Club ranked as the fourth most difficult course on the PGA Tour last year, featuring the sixth hardest set of par threes, the fifth hardest set of par fours, and the eight hardest set of par fives. 

While the Doak design featured standard 31-yard wide fairways, players were able find the short grass last year at only a 48.9% rate, which can easily be explained by the extreme winds. There was not a massive price to pay for missing the fairway, as the Renaissance Club ranked 37th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty. At the top of the leaderboard, there was a far more prevalent correlation between driving distance than driving accuracy. Shorter players such as Tom Kim, Tommy Fleetwood, Jamie Donaldson can still succeed here, but Xander Schauffele, Kurt Kitayama, Rasmus Hojgaard, Alex Smalley, Thomas Detry, and Dean Burmester all finished top-10 ranking well above average driving distance. This week, I will primarily be looking for players that possess power off the tee, are elite with their mid to long irons, and have shown an ability to perform both on slower greens and in windy conditions.

Genesis Scottish Open Classic Key Stats

• Long-term Proximity 175 yards plus
• Strokes Gained Putting: Slow Greens
• Driving Distance

Genesis Scottish Open: Outright Winner

Tyrrell Hatton (+2200) (Bet $100 to collect $2,300) DraftKings has the best Tyrrell Hatton odds

It’s hard to believe that Tyrrell Hatton has yet to find his way into the winner’s circle this year, but I believe that changes this week in North Berwick. Hatton is coming off another solid ball-striking ball-striking performance at the U.S. Open, and he has gained strokes ball-striking in every single start this season. He’s also firing on all cylinders with the flat-stick, gaining over a stroke putting in seven straight starts. With 15 made cuts, 10 top-30 finishes, and seven top-10 finishes in 16 starts, Hatton continues to knock on the door. The Renaissance Club presents a unique opportunity for the fiery Englishman, and he has finished top-25 in all three appearances at the Tom Doak design. Hatton checks all the boxes that I am looking for this week, and he possesses above-average power off the tee, long iron play, and is one of the absolute best slow green putters and wind players on the PGA Tour. It’s only a matter of time before Hatton is the last man standing on Sunday, and we’ll be hard-pressed to find a better opportunity and course fit than the blustery Renaissance Club.

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Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) (Bet $100 to collect $2,300) Head to DraftKings for the best Tommy Fleetwood odds

Like Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood has done almost everything this season but find the winner’s circle. I would not be concerned by a surprising missed cut at the Travelers Championship, as before that, Fleetwood had recorded back-to-back top-fives at the Canadian Open and U.S. Open. Fleetwood faced a heartbreaking playoff defeat to Nick Taylor in Canada but followed it up the next week by gaining 12 strokes ball-striking in a major. Now Fleetwood returns to familiar territory in the Renaissance Club, where he already has a second and a fourth in three appearances. The Englishman has gained over 5.6 strokes ball-striking in two of his three visits to the Doak design and gained over three strokes putting in both of his last two. Fleetwood’s success at this event should not come as a surprise, as the 32-year-old possesses an elite short game, is one of the best slow green putters in the world, and has a sterling resume of success on challenging, windswept golf courses. Fleetwood should have no issues finding his way to the top of the leaderboard by week’s end. 

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