2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks and Predictions

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a few days away and that means we need early picks for this week's stop on the PGA Tour. Golf handicapper and expert Andy Lack gives us his best Arnold Palmer Invitational picks.

Will Zalatoris tees off during the third round of the The Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club
(Image credit: Getty Images)

The Arnold Palmer Invitational was founded in 1979 as the successor to the Florida Citrus Open Invitational, and since 1979 the event has been hosted at the iconic Bay Hill Club and Lodge.

It is one of only five tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule that has an invitational status, which basically just means a smaller field. Yet with the event being granted elevated status, which has essentially just come to mean that all of the best players in the world will be in attendance competing for a $20 million dollar purse, the field has been raised to 136 players.

Once again, all of the best players in the world will be in attendance, including Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris, as well as former winners like Jason Day, Francesco Molinari, and Tyrrell Hatton.

With the PLAYERS Championship right on deck, the Tour is now reaching the meat and potatoes of the Florida Swing, and while we always miss champions walking off the 18th for congratulations from Arnold Palmer, his presence lives on at one of the premier events of the year.

Before we get into our picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, make sure to take a moment to check out these awesome sports betting offers for this week. With the offers below, you can turn $6 into $350 guaranteed, or you can use one of the HUGE first bet offers, to wager with more confidence on your Arnold Palmer Invitational selections this week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Course Preview

Bay Hill Golf Club & Lodge

The Florida Swing gets off to an incredibly difficult start, and if you thought PGA National was hard, just wait until you see the task at hand at the iconic Dick Wilson venue.

Bay Hill Club plays as a par 72, tipping out to 7,466 yards, and last year, it played as the third toughest course on the PGA Tour. Bay Hill has always been challenging, but in 2019 they hired a new superintendent who actually made the fairways a touch wider, but shaved off a great deal of rough surrounding the water and bunkers, making it far easier for balls to roll into hazards.

He also made the existing rough far thicker, and Bay Hill definitively features the thickest rough on the PGA Tour outside of the U.S. Open. Since Flynn took over in 2019, the winning scores have been -12, -4, -11, and -5. Last year, it featured the hardest set of par threes on the PGA Tour and the second-hardest set of par fours on the schedule as well.

For this reason, it is absolutely essential for players to score on the four par fives, which have historically ranked as the four easiest holes on the course. Ultimately, Bay Hill requires an extremely balanced attack of powerful driving, par-five scoring, elite long iron play, and a deft touch around the greens. Over the years, every single winner has been near the top of the field in either driving distance, par-five scoring, proximity to the hole, or scrambling. Any player that is non-elite in at least one of those three skill sets is an easy cross-off for me, and I am extremely excited to watch the best in the world take on such a difficult test.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Key Stats

  • Long-term Proximity 200 yards plus
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda-grass courses
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Long golf courses

Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks and Predictions: Outright Winner

Will Zalatoris (+2500) (Bet $100 to collect $2,600) The best odds for this Will Zalatoris pick are at FanDuel

While typically one of the most popular selections in the betting market week in and out, Will Zalatoris has not been a player I have invested much in over the past couple of years. That changes this week for me, as I believe this is an ideal spot for the rising star.

Zalatoris answered all questions about his lingering injury history with a fourth-place finish at the Genesis where he gained 3.9 strokes off the tee, four strokes on approach, 2.4 strokes around the green, and 2.4 strokes putting. I love buying in on players that are coming off a week where they gained strokes in all four major categories, which is the exact type of well-rounded approach that is extremely necessary at a course like Bay Hill.

The Wake Forest alumnus remains one of the best drivers of the ball on long golf courses, as well as the best long iron players in the field. My only concern is the short game, but even that has been trending in the right direction. Will Zalatoris will be the first to admit that his favorite style of golf is U.S. Open conditions, and with the rock-hard greens and extremely thick rough, Bay Hill is as about as close to a U.S.-Open-like set up that players will see on the PGA Tour all season.

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Will Zalatoris Outright Odds Comparison
SportsbookOddsPayout ($100 Wager)
FanDuel Sportsbook+2500$2600
BetMGM Sportsbook+2200$2300
DraftKings Sportsbook +2000$2100
Caesars Sportsbook+1800$1900

As you can see above, Will Zalatoris is as long as +2500 to win this week, and as short as +1800. This is a $700 difference in payout, so ensure you are comparing the odds this week, before placing your outright wager on Will Zalatoris to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Hideki Matsuyama (+6600) (Bet $100 to collect $6,700) PointsBet has the best odds to Hideki Matsuyama to win this week

At this current moment, there’s nothing really jumping off the page about Hideki Matsuyama, but that is of course reflected in his number. In terms of pure value, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better bet on the board than the former Masters champion. I love to pounce on players that are coming off a missed cut in which they gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, which was certainly the case for Matsuyama at Riviera. Last week, he gained 0.7 strokes off the tee and 1.6 strokes on approach.

Of course, he fell victim to a faulty putter but on the whole, Hideki has been much better of late, and he’s actually gained strokes putting in his last four appearances on Bermuda grass. Grabbing a player of Hideki’s caliber at this high of a number provides a great deal of flexibility in creating a card with multiple elite players this week, and I would not be the least surprised if the Japanese superstar reminded us that he is still a top-20 player in the world and picked up PGA Tour victory number nine in Orlando. 

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Hideki Matsuyama Outright Odds Comparison
SportsbookOddsPayout ($100 Wager)
PointsBet Sportsbook+6600$6700
BetMGM Sportsbook+6600$6700
DraftKings Sportsbook+5500$5600
FanDuel Sportsbook+5500$5600

As you can see, Hideki Matsuyama is as big as +6600 to win this week, and even at +5500, he looks like a big price to win. With that said, ensure you are taking advantage of PointsBet or BetMGM Sportsbook's odds, so that you can win $6,700, rather than $5,500!

Andy Lack

A PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York, Andy Lack has contributed to sites such as Golf Digest, GolfWRX, OddsChecker Rotoballer, the Score, and now Golf Monthly. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. When he’s not writing, Andy can likely be found somewhere on a golf course pursuing his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur.