Hero World Challenge Picks, Predictions And Odds

In its usual position towards the end of the year, the Hero World Challenge takes place for the ninth time in 2024 with 20 of the PGA Tour's very best set to compete in The Bahamas.

The exclusive unofficial tournament has featured as Tiger Woods' comeback event in recent years, but the 15-time Major winner is exclusively on hosting duties this time around after his latest back surgery in September did not allow him enough time to fully recover.

In Woods' absence, World No.1 and defending champion, Scottie Scheffler leads the field as a number of exciting debutants also come in to try and lift the famous trophy.

Three of the world's top-five will not be on display this week, though, with Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Collin Morikawa absent. The World No.2 and 3 (Schauffele and McIlroy) are not playing for the second year in a row. Plus, Tony Finau was a late withdrawal, going on to be replaced by Sepp Straka.

But of those who are in contention, four of the Golf Monthly team have picked one name that we each believe could win the 2024 Hero World Challenge...

Hero World Challenge 2024: The Course

Albany Golf Course is a 7,414-yard par-72 which was designed by Ernie Els and opened in 2010. It has been used at the December event since 2015, with the 2020 tournament cancelled due to Covid-19.

According to its website, Albany "combines the best of links and desert features with windswept dunes and challenging water features." Said dunes are up to 30 feet high and feature regularly alongside patches of native grass in among the five par-3s, five-par 5s and remaining par-4s.

The earliest par-3 - the second hole - is styled after the famous 13th at Muirfield village, and there are a couple of enticing par-4s on the back nine which can make or break a round.

The scoring at the Hero is generally quite low, with the record total set at 26-under by Jordan Spieth back in 2014. However, that was at Isleworth and not at Albany. The following year, Bubba Watson won at this week's course with 25-under, while the winning score has never passed -20 in the subsequent years.

HERO WORLD CHALLENGE PREVIOUS WINNERS

*no tournament in 2020 due to Covid-19

HERO WORLD CHALLENGE BETTING ODDS

The odds to win outright are via BetMGM

• Scottie Scheffler (+250)
• Patrick Cantlay (+900)
• Justin Thomas (+900)
• Ludvig Aberg (+1000)
• Sam Burns (+1200)
• Sungjae Im (+1200)
• Russell Henley (+1400)
• Tom Kim (+1600)
• Robert MacIntyre (+2000)
• Wyndham Clark (+2000)
• Sahith Theegala (+2200)
• Jason Day (+2200)
• Brian Harman (+2200)
• Akshay Bhatia (+2800)
• Cameron Young (+2800)
• Aaron Rai (+2800)
• Keegan Bradley (+3300)
• Sepp Straka (+4500)
• Nick Dunlap (+5000)
• Mathieu Pavon (+8000)

HERO WORLD CHALLENGE BETTING PICKS

Elliott Heath

PICK TO WIN: Justin Thomas (+900)

Justin Thomas could make another huge step on his comeback journey this week by winning his first title in over two-and-a-half years. He was T2nd in his last start at the Zozo Championship after finishing seventh in the Tour Championship (72-hole scores).

He’s got a great record at Albany as well, having been third last year and fifth in 2022, 2021 and 2019. He’s had a runner-up this year plus a third and five other top-10s, so I see no reason why he can’t contend and go on to become a very popular winner.

Barry Plummer

PICK TO WIN: Scottie Scheffler (+225)

This selection needs no real explanation, but when you are trying to pick the winner of a 20-man field, my advice would always be to abandon the search for value and commit for one week to the obvious choice.

Scheffler is that player, and when you consider that he won this event last year, and had been second on the two previous editions of this event, the only thing that will put people off is his price.

I'll take around 2.5x my stake in the near certain comfort that Scheffler will be contending come Sunday.

For those who want a rationale... seven wins in 2024, ranked 1st for SG: Total in last 12 months, World No.1 - the end!

Matt Cradock

PICK TO WIN: Jason Day (+2200)

The obvious pick this week, for me, is Scottie Scheffler, but I've opted for Jason Day here due to the fact he is offering decent value in what is only a small field.

What's more, he has been in competitive action just recently, finishing in tie for eighth at the Australian PGA Championship a couple of weeks ago. In this type of event, it can be difficult to find value, but Day seems a good option for me.

Last year, he finished mid-table; however, it was only down to a two-over final round that he didn't move up the leaderboard.

Certainly, he's in good form and his game suits the layout of Albany GC, so he could well be up there come Sunday.

Jonny Leighfield

PICK TO WIN: Russell Henley (+1400)

The American has enjoyed a very good year on the PGA Tour, banking seven top-10s, reaching World No.14, and making the Presidents Cup team via a pick from captain, Jim Furyk. While he hasn't won since 2022, there appear to be no holes in Henley's game at the moment and a victory could well be around the corner.

Although he is a debutant in this event, I don't believe that will affect him and I can see him joining Scottie Scheffler in the final group on Sunday. From there, Henley could enjoy his breakout moment to tee up a huge 2025 in which he also features for Team USA at the Ryder Cup...

TV Schedule

USA (ET)

• Thursday, December 5 - Round One: 1:30pm - 4:30pm (Golf Channel/NBC Sports app)
• Friday, December 6 - Round Two: 1:30pm - 4:30pm (Golf Channel/NBC Sports app)
• Saturday, December 7 - Round Three: 12:00pm - 2:30pm (Golf Channel/NBC Sports app) 2:30pm - 5:00pm (NBC/Peacock/NBC Sports app)

Sunday, December 8 - Round Four: 11:30pm - 1:30pm (Golf Channel/NBC Sports app) 1:30pm - 4:40pm (NBC/Peacock/NBC Sports app)

UK (GMT)

• Thursday, December 5 - Round One: 6:30pm - 9:30pm (Sky Sports Golf)
• Friday, December 6 - Round Two: 6:30pm - 9:30pm (Sky Sports Golf)
• Saturday, December 7 - Round Three: 5:00pm - 10:00pm (Sky Sports Golf)
• Sunday, December 8 - Round Four: 4:30pm - 9:30pm (Sky Sports Golf)

GOLF MONTHLY BETTING PICKS: BEST RECENT RESULTS

• Matt Cradock and Elliott Heath - Shriners Children's Open: Matti Schmid T3rd (+5000)
• Jonny Leighfield - Sanderson Farms Championship: Keith Mitchell T3rd (+2500)