It’s been tough sledding all weekend at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club, seeing the leader, Adam Schenk, sit at just eight under heading into Sunday’s action. The American turned in a one-under outing on Saturday, giving him a one-stroke lead over Jordan Spieth and Tommy Fleetwood.
Spieth is currently the betting favorite to secure the come-from-behind win, sitting at +280. Fleetwood is behind him at +360 after the duo each shot two under in the third round.
As for the biggest mover, that belongs to Patton Kizzire, who went from -1 to -5 with a four-under Saturday round, he’s currently tied for seventh, along with Wyndham Clark and Matt Wallace.
It’s anyone’s tournament heading into Sunday as the leaderboard sees nine golfers sitting within three strokes of one another at the top. Let’s dive into my top two bets for the finale at Innisbrook.
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP PICK
Jordan Spieth To Win Outright (+280 via DraftKings) Bet $100 to collect $380. You can get the best odds for this pick at DraftKings
While it’s the chalky pick to make at this point, I think it’s the right one. I’m taking Jordan Spieth to erase the one-stroke deficit and secure his first win of the year on Sunday.
For starters, the 29-year-old has been playing great recently. Spieth turned in a T6 (-11) at the WM Phoenix Open in February and followed that up with a T4 (-7) at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in early March. The American added another top 20 finish last weekend, placing T19 (-6) at THE PLAYERS across the state in Ponte Vedra Beach.
Furthermore, Spieth has an excellent history at the Copperhead Course, where he won the Valspar Championship in 2015, fending off Sean O’Hair and Patrick Reed in a playoff. The next year, it wasn’t quite as impressive, but Spieth collected a top 20 finish at T18, courtesy of an even performance.
All things considered, I think this is a great opportunity for Spieth to get off the schneid and secure a win.
Davis Riley Top 10 Finish (+125 via DraftKings) Bet $100 to collect $225. You can get the best odds for this pick at DraftKings
Aside from an outright winner, I like the plus-money payout with Davis Riley to finish inside the top 10 at Innisbrook. He’s currently sitting at 10th on the leaderboard (-4), shooting 69-68-72 through the first three rounds.
As for his recent history, the 26-year-old missed the cut at The PLAYERS last weekend but finished T8 at the Arnold Palmer (-6) and T29 at the Honda Classic (-3) just prior. For a golfer ranked 67th in the world, I feel the top 30 finishes are a sign that things are turning in the right direction.
Finally, it’s worth noting that Riley placed second last year at the Valspar Championship, losing in a playoff to Sam Burns. With a lack of true stars lingering atop the leaderboard, I expect Riley to rise to the challenge and finish inside the top 10.
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS – LIVE ODDS ENTERING SUNDAY
| Golfer | Odds |
| Jordan Spieth | +280 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +360 |
| Adam Schenk | +400 |
| Taylor Moore | +900 |
| Webb Simpson | +1200 |
| Wyndham Clark | +1400 |
| Cody Gribble | +2200 |
| Matt Wallace | +2800 |
| Patton Kizzire | +3000 |
| Davis Riley | +3500 |
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