Every golf tournament is different and every victor goes about things in their own unique way, but there are certainly parallels to be drawn between the last ten winners of The Masters.
In this day and age, statistical analysis is a part and parcel of all top-level sport and crunching the numbers can help you identify trends or gain an edge on the competition.
In that spirit, I’ve looked back at the scorecards of the last ten winners at Augusta National – as well as every Rory McIlroy scorecard from his 14 Masters appearances – and two things really stand out to me (as well as some more general observations).
We all know how dangerous a hole the 12th can be and many Masters challenges have come a cropper at the famous short hole – see Jordan Spieth in 2016, Francesco Molinari in 2019 and countless others. But the last ten Masters winners have negotiated it with, well, not ease, but aplomb.
None of the champions going back to Jordan Spieth in 2014 have played the 12th in worse than level par for the week – very impressive given it’s historically been the fourth-hardest hole at Augusta. And, what’s more, none of the past ten winners have found the water and chalked up a double- or triple-bogey. Disaster avoidance on 12 is absolutely essential to Masters success.
Six of the previous ten champions have actually been under-par on the 12th hole over the course of the four days and the other four have negotiated the one-shotter in level-par. In 2022, Dustin Johnson was two-under-par on the 12th, the best record of the last ten years.
Of course, the 12th is part of Amen Corner – perhaps the most famous three-hole stretch in world golf. The 11th is statistically the toughest hole on the course and getting through 11 and 12 – then taking advantage of the par-5 13th – is imperative.
The 13th green at Augusta National
Only one player – Sergio Garcia in 2017 – has been over-par round Amen Corner and gone on to win the Green Jacket. The last ten champions have averaged three-under-par from 11-13 during the course of the tournament.
The other thing that really stood out to me when analysing the scorecards is the fact you can get away with one bad round at The Masters – but only one.
Half of the last ten winners were under-par in every round, but the other five were not. Shooting more than 72 isn’t a death knell in The Masters, presumably because Augusta offers more than its fair share of birdie opportunities. If you can take advantage of those and negotiate the difficult holes, you can make up ground.
The other key to success at Augusta National is capitalising on the par 5s. Remarkably, Danny Willett was only level-par for the long holes when he triumphed in 2016 – the only winner in the last 50 years to not be under-par for the par 5s.
The other nine of the last ten winners have dominated the three-shotters. Willett aside, the worst par-5 performance was -8 (Scheffler in 2022, Tiger in 2019 and Watson in 2014). Five of the last ten winners have been double digits under-par for the par 5s.
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