Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips 2022

Who will tame the Snake Pit this week in the final event of the Florida Swing?

Montage of course image and four golfers
(Image credit: Future)

Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips 2022

One of the main problems about betting on the Valspar Championship in Florida this week is assessing how much Paul Casey, Sam Burns and Keegan Bradley, the three players with the best recent form at Innisbrook, have left in the tank after an extraordinarily gruelling week at Sawgrass.

When Cam Smith finally crossed the winning line a day late on Monday afternoon and became the Players champion, $3.6m richer and up to No.6 in the world rankings, he will have felt relief but not fatigue. Winners never do - the exhilaration of victory overcomes the ache in the legs.

It is the disappointed losers who feel the pain. Even runner-up Anirban Lahiri, the 500/1 Indian outsider playing the tournament of his life, won’t have felt like the winner he was to everyone in his home country or anyone who loves a Cinderella story. Ranked 322 in the world prior to teeing off, Lahiri would have pulled off one of the upsets of all time but for Smith’s astonishing ten-birdie final round, a 66 which was still only just good enough to get the Aussie home.

Casey stuck to him like a leech too in one of the best performances of his long career, not wimping out like he has done so often on the big occasion and settling for sixth or eighth place. Third place was honourably earned - it would have been second but for drawing a bad lie from a perfect drive on the 16th - and all the more praiseworthy because he triple-bogeyed the very first hole of the tournament. Casey was simply beaten by the better man and now arrives at the Valspar, where two of his three PGA Tour victories have been achieved, with increased self-belief. But what has he got left?

After 43-hour rounds spread over so long that you could forgive a player not knowing what day of the week it was, and the storms, the five inches of rain, the gusting 40mph wind and the numbing cold, anybody can be forgiven for just going through the motions this week. How much will those who battled it out for five freaky days want to go through it all again so soon?

Last year Burns, in winning his maiden title on the demanding Copperhead course, produced some compelling stats - 5th in strokes gained: tee to green, 3rd in strokes gained: putting. But his game was in far better shape 12 months ago and the cracks appeared on Monday at Sawgrass when, starting the final round with a favourite’s chance, he crumbled to a 76.

Sam Burns holds the Valspar Championship trophy in 2021

Burns won his maiden PGA Tour title here last year

(Image credit: Getty Images)

He was neck and neck with a major champion in Bradley 12 months ago until the older man cracked last year but on what they produced on Monday, you would fancy the 2011 PGA champion to reverse the placings. Until the final two holes, which also undid Tyrrell Hatton, Bradley’s dazzling play, after getting the worst of the draw, recalled his golden days.

There’s no Cam Smith this week but we do have five of the world’s top ten in a strong Valspar Championship field. Collin Morikawa makes his tournament debut, Viktor Hovland left regretting weak pitching after being bang there on Monday, Dustin Johnson came from nowhere with a best-of-the-week 63 to nick a top-ten spot, a bad draw did for Justin Thomas and the two sound-alikes, Scheffler and Xander Schauffele (missed the cut along with Morikawa), flopped.

Hovland might well better last year’s debut third but looks as if he needs a rest whereas DJ’s phenomenal back nine of 29 on Monday must put a spring in his step for the tough Copperhead assignment where getting the ball into the right position is key. Not having remotely been in contention all week at Sawgrass, he will be fresher than those who were in the mix for the long haul. It’s about time Dustin, who was sixth in the 2019 Valspar, showed why he was clear world No.1 not so long ago and I make him the main selection.

The 7350-yard par 71 is famed for the Snake Pit, a long par three sandwiched between two demanding fours late in the round. Treelined Copperhead is not your usual resort course and birdies have to be earned. It’s an excellent course for grafters who can putt like 2017 champion Adam Hadwin who had a fine Players Championship. The Canadian looks set for another big week and don’t give up on Hatton who continues to impress. Fifth and marching up the leaderboard with some brilliant iron play going into the dreaded 17th on Monday when he found water by being too brave, he is running up a sequence of high finishes which will eventually produce that elusive W.

Course specialist Paul Casey apart, another European worth considering, and at a three-figure price, is Francesco Molinari, a former Open champion rediscovering the game that took him to the top.

Early-week rain will take any remaining sting out of the course at Palm Harbor but it should be mostly dry from Thursday with temperatures in the mid-20s and a moderate wind. Hopefully the calm after last week’s storm.

Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips 2022

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Jeremy Chapman
Jeremy Chapman

Celebrating my 50th year tipping and writing about golf. Tipped more than 800 winners (and more than 8000 losers!). First big winner Lee Trevino at 8-1, 1972 Open at Muirfield. Biggest win £40 each-way Ernie Els at 80-1 and 50-1, 2012 Open. Most memorable: Giving the 1-2-3 at 33-1, 50-1, 33-1 out of 4 tips from a field of 180 in 2006 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.  According to one bookmaker “Undoubtedly one of the greatest tipping performances of all time”. Lowest handicap 9 Present handicap 35.6. Publications tipped for: Sporting Life, Racing Post, Racing&Football Outlook, Golf World, Golf Weekly, Golf Monthly, Fitzdares Times. Check our Jeremy's latest tips at our Golf Betting tips home page