The American Express Golf Betting Tips 2022

The PGA Tour heads for California this week with a field headlined by World No.1 Jon Rahm and FedEx Cup champion Patrick Cantlay - who will win?

Betting slip graphic and three golfers
(Image credit: Future)

Patrick Cantlay

2pts each way at 9/1 with Bet365

With Cantlay marginally preferred to Rahm of the two outstanding market leaders, we’ll go to war with the PGA Tour’s Player of the Year who has become a world beater over the past 12 months.

Patrick Reed

1pt each way at 40/1 with Bet365

Course record holder Patrick Reed, who shot an eye-popping 28-under to win this in 2014, recovered from a bad start at Kapalua after showing a magical short-game touch when third at the World Challenge.

Seamus Power

1pt each way at 40/1 with Bet365

Irishman Seamus Power, who has made his way into the world's top 50 for the first time, is 54 under for his last 12 rounds which takes in his third at Waialae on Sunday. He looks set to contend.

Michael Thompson

0.5pts each way at 80/1 with Bet365

Michael Thompson, who posted an eye-catching fifth at Waialae on Sunday, has solid AmEx form - fifth to Si Woo Kim last year and ninth to Long in 2019. He looked very solid at the Sony and could make the frame for the second week running.

Andrew Landry

0.5pts each way at 140/1 with Bet365

Stocky journeyman Landry, winner in 2020, is twice the golfer here than anywhere else. He might be wildly inconsistent but boasts fairly recent form - fourth at Sanderson Farms - and on this course is capable of mixing it with the best.

Francesco Molinari

0.5pts each way at 200/1 with Bet365

His three top-tens in 2021 came around this time of year in his adopted California (starting with eighth at the AmEx) and that while form is temporary, class is forever. Frankie’s fall after blowing the 2019 Masters after leading by two with seven to play was a crushing one but he has the class to come back.

The American Express - what we used to know as the Bob Hope Desert Classic - plays second fiddle to Abu Dhabi this week even though world No. 1 Jon Rahm and FedEx Cup champion Patrick Cantlay are teeing it up in the Californian desert. Most of the big guns, however, give it the big swerve as they’re not keen on three days of slow-motion golf with amateur hackers before getting down to the serious business on Sunday. 

Nor were they keen on the sort of non-golfing crowd who came to gawp at the celebrities rather than watch the golf and were ignorant of the etiquette, snapping photos and chattering on their backswings.

Besides, with “only” $6.7m in the pot, it is one of the smaller purses. Even so, the roof will come off if Phil Mickelson wins it for a third time. His feat in winning a Major at 50 was the star turn of 2021 for me and he looked sharp enough at Kapalua to take a hand this week.

In the old days when it was a five-rounder with much to-ing and fro-ing over three different courses, it was hard to follow for punters but things have improved - just four rounds now, still a pro-am for 54 holes but pretty celeb-free.

Last year, because of Covid, no pro-am and only two Palm Springs courses, the Pete Dye Stadium (7112 yards, par 72) and the Nicklaus (7214 yards, par 72). Having to ditch La Quinta (7060, par 72), a fixture from 1964 to 2020, marked the end of an era but it is quickly back on the rota.

Without La Quinta a faltering Si Woo Kim was almost swallowed up by Cantlay’s last-round 61 but just clung on to win by one. Cam Davis was third, Tony Finau fourth and it was four more back to the fifth.

Rahm, who had won in 2018 when edging out Andrew Landry in a play-off for his second Tour victory, was due to play last year but had to withdraw after hurting his shoulder in a gym workout.

As both Rahm and Cantlay opened the year in top nick at Kapalua - the Spaniard a close second, the quiet American a good fourth after starting slowly - they should logically fill the first two places.

- Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Golf Betting Tips 2022

The betting tells you as much but there’s rarely anything logical about this tournament. Many little-known names have prevailed, Landry being one in 2020. Adam Long the previous year had traded at 1000 on Betfair, Hudson Swafford was barely a household name in his own household until he stunned us all in 2017.

So look around for outsiders with a squeak. Mickelson at 90/1 is one you could justify, 80/1 Canadian putting ace Adam Hadwin, twice unlucky to be pipped by a shot five years ago and again two years later, another. And stocky journeyman Landry Is twice the golfer here than anywhere else.

Hadwin and Landry might be inconsistent but boast fair recent form - Hadwin sixth at Las Vegas, Landry fourth at Sanderson Farms - and on the right type of course are capable of mixing it with the best.

Even worthier of interest is bearded Michael Thompson, an eye-catching fifth at Waialae on Sunday who has solid AmEx form - fifth to Si Woo Kim last year and ninth to Long in 2019. He could make the frame for the second week running.

Harder to justify is 2018 Open champion Francesco Molinari whose annus mirabilis, when he also captured Europe’s flagship BMW PGA at Wentworth, was 100% in a Ryder Cup romp and won for the first time in the States, seems a long time ago now.

My reasons for tossing a couple of pounds on an Italian job are that his three top-tens last year came around this time of year in his adopted California (starting with eighth at the AmEx) and that while form is temporary, class is for ever. Frankie’s fall after blowing the 2019 Masters after leading by two with seven to play was a crushing one but he has the class to come back.

Higher up the pecking order, Irishman Seamus Power is 54 under for his last 12 rounds which takes in his third at Waialae on Sunday, and Patrick Reed, who shot an eye-popping 28-under to win this in 2014, recovered from a bad start at Kapalua after showing a magical short-game touch when third at the World Challenge.

With Cantlay marginally preferred to Rahm of the two outstanding market leaders, we’ll go to war with the PGA Tour’s Player of the Year alongside course record-holder Reed and Power, three little dips into the big-outsider market for a tournament with a long history of upsets.

The American Express Golf Betting Tips 2022

*Place terms: Bet365 one-quarter first 5 

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Jeremy Chapman
Jeremy Chapman

Celebrating my 50th year tipping and writing about golf. Tipped more than 800 winners (and more than 8000 losers!). First big winner Lee Trevino at 8-1, 1972 Open at Muirfield. Biggest win £40 each-way Ernie Els at 80-1 and 50-1, 2012 Open. Most memorable: Giving the 1-2-3 at 33-1, 50-1, 33-1 out of 4 tips from a field of 180 in 2006 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.  According to one bookmaker “Undoubtedly one of the greatest tipping performances of all time”. Lowest handicap 9 Present handicap 35.6. Publications tipped for: Sporting Life, Racing Post, Racing&Football Outlook, Golf World, Golf Weekly, Golf Monthly, Fitzdares Times. Check our Jeremy's latest tips at our Golf Betting tips home page