Smart Prop Picks for the WM Phoenix Open

Tom Jacobs is back with his favorite PGA Tour prop picks, this time for the WM Phoenix Open.

chris kirk
(Image credit: Getty Images)

Arizona residents are being truly spoilt this weekend, as the WM Phoenix Open comes to town on the same weekend the 2023 Super Bowl heads to Arizona. This event is well known for its party atmosphere, and that will only be accentuated with the Super Bowl in Arizona this Sunday!

This is the strongest-ever WM Phoenix Open field, with 22 of the top 25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking teeing it up this week. Of the top 25 only Cameron Smith, Will Zalatoris, and Joaquin Niemann are missing from the field. Smith and Niemann are unable to play due to their LIV Tour affiliation, whilst Zalatoris has withdrawn through injury once more.

This does mean, however, that both Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are in the field, and they will once again tussle to prove who is the dominant force in the world of golf right now. Mcllroy still sits atop the rankings right now, but can a win, in an event he loves, boost Rahm's chance of World No.1 status?

Will either Jon Rahm or Rory McIlroy feature in our smart prop picks for the WM Phoenix Open, or will we be looking further down the board for our favorite side market bets for this week's event?

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Below are our favorite WM Phoenix Open prop picks!

2023 WM Phoenix Open Start Time, Where to Watch

  • Date - Thursday 9th February - Sunday 12th February
  • Television - Thursday-Friday, 3 p.m.-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Saturday, 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6:30 p.m. (CBS). Sunday, 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6:00 p.m. (CBS).
  • Where - Scottsdale, Arizona

Best Prop Picks for the 2023 WM Phoenix Open

Without further ado, here are our favorite prop picks for the 2023 WM Phoenix Open.

Chris Kirk to finish inside the top 40 (+120) Get these odds at DraftKings now

Chris Kirk has played in two events so far in 2023, and he has finished 3rd in both, so you may be forgiven for thinking we should aim higher with Chris Kirk. If you feel inclined to go to the top 20, or top 30 markets, I would not put you off, in fact, I have backed him to win and finish in the top 5. The smart prop pick for the WM Phoenix Open, however, is to back him to finish inside the top 40, at +120!

Kirk has played this event 11 times in his career, making 8 cuts, and that is a strong record for someone of his ability. He has missed two cuts and withdrawn once from this event in his career, and while those two missed cuts have come in his last three starts here, I think his 14th-place finish last year is more indicative of what he can achieve at the WM Phoenix Open.

Kirk was struggling on and off the course for a while, and I can forgive him those couple of missed cuts, especially given his bounce back here 12 months ago, and his former finishes here.

In 5 of his 11 starts in this event, Kirk would have cashed a top 40 bet, and when you consider his current form and his recent ball-striking numbers, he looks like a good bet to hit this mark once more.

Kirk ranked 5th and 4th in SG Approach, and 8th and 3rd in SG Tee to Green in his past two starts, and if he can replicate those efforts here, he is more likely to finish closer to the top 20, than he is the cut-line, come the weekend here.

JT Poston to finish inside the top 20 (+360) Get these odds at Caesars now

JT Poston is becoming a solid player on the PGA Tour, and one that is prone to a fast start. I am willing to bet that Poston can come here on his fifth visit to the course, and crack the top 20 for the second time.

Poston is 4/4 for made cuts at the WM Phoenix Open, never finishing worse than 37th here. Whilst he has only finished inside the top 20 once (11th in 2021), Poston has also finished 23rd and 26th, two results that could easily have been top 20s with a putt or two dropping here or there.

The two-time PGA Tour winner has found himself 8th at the halfway stage at this event, in each of the past two seasons, and while he hung around to finish 11th in 2021, he fell away more dramatically 12 months ago to finish 23rd. Two weekend rounds of 70 were not enough to keep him in the mix last year, but now a winner for the second time since his last visit to Phoenix, Poston can add the staying power to his record at this event and post his best finish yet.

When 23rd here last year, Poston had missed 9 of his last 11 cuts coming in, and his T25 finish at the American Express two weeks prior was his best effort of the season. This time, he's 6/8 for made cuts this year, finished 6th in his most recent start at the American Express, and also has four more top-21 finishes at the Shriners, RSM Classic, Tournament of Champions, and the Sony Open, to lean on. The Tournament of Champions was admittedly a shorter field (39 players) so that finish wasn't that great, but he's otherwise been in good form, especially last time out.

In both of the Hawaii events, he was inside the top 20 going into the final round, and he broke the cycle of three T21 finishes to start the year with a T6 last time out, so there is little reason to think he cannot finish inside the magic number this week.

Collin Morikawa Top American (+1400) Get these odds at DraftKings

I have bet Collin Morikawa to win the WM Phoenix Open and he is now a best price of +1800 to do so. Taking him at four points lower in the "Top American" market at +1400 seems like a smart prop bet for the WM Phoenix Open when you consider who that eliminates.

That means Morikawa can finish behind 2nd or 3rd behind both the favorites Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy, and it also takes runners like Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, and Viktor Hovland out of the equation as well. 

Now of course, he still needs to beat Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, and Justin Thomas, just to note his most direct competitors, but I am confident he can win this WM Phoenix Open, so why not take the best two players out of the betting market at a fractional cost?

This is a value play over anything else. I love Collin Morikawa's chances of winning this event, and I only become more confident betting on him, when I know I cannot be beaten by Rory, Rahm, or a bunch of other strong contenders from outside of America.

For more WM Phoenix Open Picks, check out the below, as our expert handicappers give their favorite picks for this week's PGA Tour event.

Tom Jacobs

In addition to hosting the Lost Fore Words golf podcast, Tom Jacobs has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, and has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer on the weekends!