Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips 2022

Who is the GM Tipster backing at Bay Hill this week?

Betting slip graphic with four golfers
(Image credit: Future)

Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips 2022

Victory for world No.176 Sepp Straka at PGA National left punters tearing their hair again and pushed up the average world ranking position of the 2022 PGA winners to 81. We can but hope sanity returns for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at its traditional venue, Bay Hill.

The 17st Austrian, a top-priced 140/1 shot last week, finished like an express train to deprive Shane Lowry of his first win since the 2019 Open at Royal Portrush as five-shot overnight leader Daniel Berger crumbled and fell back to fourth.

On the plus side, Lowry’s 67-67-67 over the last three days was a top-class effort on a difficult golf course and a one-two for Europe was a heartening start to the Florida Swing which continues in Orlando with a field much superior to the Honda’s. Five of the world’s top ten are on the tee, headed by world No.1 Jon Rahm whose 21st at Riviera last time out was his first outside the top 15 this year.

Expect another strong week by the Europeans on this renowned 7466-yard par 72 which has shown them in a good light in recent renewals. Their chance has improved with last year’s winner Bryson DeChambeau withdrawing on Monday as he is still only 90 per cent after hurting left wrist and hip in the fall which forced him out of Saudi Arabia where he was being built up as the poster boy for the new rebel world tour.

Rory McIlroy was the winner in 2018 followed by Frankie Molinari in 2019 and Tyrrell Hatton in a blustery 2020 when the winning four-under-par score was the worst since 1983 and a last-round scoring average of 75.49 the highest since 1980. The Euro charge just failed to be maintained last year when Lee Westwood went neck and neck with DeChambeau who just outlasted the Worksop veteran by a shot. Amazingly, the Mad Scientist has posted only four top-tens since and he has dropped out of the world's top ten.

While giving recent breakthrough winner Scottie Scheffler full respect, a fourth Euro takeaway in five years is the forecast with Rahm, McIlroy, Hatton, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick and forgotten man Justin Rose all fancied to make a play at Arnie’s Place.

Rahm at single-figure odds is possibly the least appealing because he doesn’t win as often as a golfer who is the best in the world should do. Announcing last week that he is to become a second-time father in the summer, the Spaniard is still a long, long way behind Tiger Woods who won the Palmer eight times between 2000 and 2013.

McIlroy also looks a bit short at 12/1 considering his shortcomings when push comes to shove and at almost three times the odds Fitzpatrick, runner up to Molinari in 2019 and a top-ten finisher on two subsequent visits, makes more each-way sense.

The fact that Hatton won in tough conditions two years ago for his lone US success prompts a bet as although it will be pretty warm at around 29C, even hotter on Sunday, winds of up to 15mph are also in the air. After two solid efforts in the Gulf, sixth in Abu Dhabi and fourth in Dubai, this is his first US start of the year and, as a fan of this mercurial character, I anticipate a big year for him.

Hovland is a much more reliable type and surely destined to be world No.1 in the next few years while after a couple of dismal campaigns, Rose looks set to regain his bloom. That sixth place at Torrey Pines was encouraging and now that his putting, once his weakest link, is looking more solid, a small win-and-place punt at 55/1 is advised. Runner-up at Bay Hill in 2013 and third to McIlroy five years later, he has the precise iron play to steer a safe route round this taxing, water-strewn assignment which has been host since 1979.

Aussie duo Marc Leishman and Adam Scott also come into the conversation, Scott with his last-time-out fourth at Riviera, Leishman as winner here in 2017 and runner-up to Hatton in 2020. But with Straka and Lowry dominating the Honda finish, Bernhard Langer and Miguel Angel Jimenez making hay on the Champions circuit and Leona Maguire opening her LPGA Tour, fingers crossed European momentum will carry on.

It could also be European joy in the Puerto Rico Open, the secondary PGA Tour contest in Rio Grande. Abu Dhabi runner-up Rafa Cabrera Bello has a massive chance and Matthias Schwab, seventh at Honda on Sunday, could easily be inspired by Straka to post a second Austrian triumph in a week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips 2022

Puerto Rico Open Golf Betting Tips 2022

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Jeremy Chapman
GM Tipster

Celebrating my 52nd year tipping and writing about golf. Tipped more than 800 winners (and more than 8000 losers!). First big winner Lee Trevino at 8-1, 1972 Open at Muirfield. Biggest win £40 each-way Ernie Els at 80-1 and 50-1, 2012 Open. Most memorable: Giving the 1-2-3 at 33-1, 50-1, 33-1 out of 4 tips from a field of 180 in 2006 Pebble Beach Pro-Am. According to one bookmaker “Undoubtedly one of the greatest tipping performances of all time”. And, of course, putting up a 150/1 winner with Stewart Cink in my very first column for Golf Monthly. Lowest handicap 9 Present handicap 35.6. Publications tipped for: Sporting Life, Racing Post, Racing&Football Outlook, Golf World, Golf Weekly, Golf Monthly, Fitzdares Times. Check our Jeremy's latest tips at our Golf Betting tips home page