Open Championship Weather Forecast: A Firm Fast Test At Baked Out Royal Birkdale

The Open Championship will be a firm and fast test at Royal Birkdale, and the day-by-day weather forecast suggests it's only going to get firmer and faster

A flag in the breeze in front of a grandstand at The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale
(Image credit: Getty Images)

If you like your links golf firm and fast then the 154th Open Championship will be right up your street as Royal Birkdale has been baked out by an unusual summer heatwave in the UK.

We've had some soggy Opens in recent times - Royal Portrush and Royal Troon in particular spring to mind - with the last real sight of brown fairways coming back in 2018 at Carnoustie.

And we'll have that again on the Southport coast as warm, sunny and breezy conditions have baked out Royal Birkdale with plenty of brown around the rough and creeping into the fairways.

Ground staff will water fairways and greens across Thursday and Friday to keep them sensible, but the fairways will largely just be left at the weekend so there'll be more brown than green in the second half of the tournament.

As there's only slim chance of any rain during the tournament, with the latest day-by-day weather forecast issued on the eve of the competition suggesting plenty more warm, dry weather to come.

The sunshine has been unrelenting at Birkdale over the course of the three practice days, with sunshine and a fresh breeze drying out the course even further between Monday and Wednesday.

There's plenty of sunshine and cloud to come throughout the tournament with the main factor being the wind - both with the speed of the gusts and also the changing direction.

Thursday's early starters will face an easterly breeze but it's set to switch to a north westerly by lunchtime - and remain there for the remainder of the tournament.

Open Championship Day-by-day weather forecast

A yellow flag flying at Royal Birkdale ahead of the Open Championship 2026

There's a hint of brown already at Royal BIrkdale

(Image credit: Getty Images)

Wednesday 15 July - Practice day

A swirling wind at Birkdale will make practice plans tricky as it will change from a south easterly first thing to a north easterly by the end of the day.

It'll also strengthen with gusts topping out at 22mph later on Wednesday, when it will also reach the maximum temperature of the day 28C (82F).

Thursday 16 July - First round

The temperature will be cooler than originally forecast with a high of around 25C (77F) but the real big story of Thursday is the changing wind.

The very early starters will face only a light easterly wind with 13mph gusts, but around 11am it's scheduled to switch to a north westerly and will increase during the day, with the afternoon wave facing gusts of 22mph.

So you'd have to say the early starts could have the best of things.

Friday 17 July - Second round

Those late Thursday starters get their own back on Friday though, with the early tee times in the second round benefiting from the same gentle easterly breeze first thing on Friday.

As is the theme of the week, the wind changes to the north west and will top out at 20mph for the second round.

Temperatures similar to Thursday with 25C (77F) the maximum with mainly cloudy skies but no chance of rain.

Saturday 18 July - Third round

The same story as the previous two days for Moving Day - with a soft early breeze from the east giving way to a stronger north westerly again with 20mph gusts.

We start a cooler weekend with maximum temperatures of 21C (70F) and for the first and only time of the week there's just a hint of rain forecast - a 20% chance with at the most 1mm predicted.

Sunday 19 July - Final round

Another 21C (70F) maximum temperature for the final round on Sunday with plenty of cloud but no need for the umbrellas with a 0% chance of rain.

The same north westerly winds will be present again for the final run-in - with a constant 10-15mph breeze and gusts of up to 20mph.

Paul Higham
Contributor

Paul Higham is a sports journalist with over 20 years of experience in covering most major sporting events for both Sky Sports and BBC Sport. He is currently freelance and covers the golf majors on the BBC Sport website.  Highlights over the years include covering that epic Monday finish in the Ryder Cup at Celtic Manor and watching Rory McIlroy produce one of the most dominant Major wins at the 2011 US Open at Congressional. He also writes betting previews and still feels strangely proud of backing Danny Willett when he won the Masters in 2016 - Willett also praised his putting stroke during a media event before the Open at Hoylake. Favourite interviews he's conducted have been with McIlroy, Paul McGinley, Thomas Bjorn, Rickie Fowler and the enigma that is Victor Dubuisson. A big fan of watching any golf from any tour, sadly he spends more time writing about golf than playing these days with two young children, and as a big fair weather golfer claims playing in shorts is worth at least five shots. Being from Liverpool he loves the likes of Hoylake, Birkdale and the stretch of tracks along England's Golf Coast, but would say his favourite courses played are Kingsbarns and Portrush. 

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