Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips 2022

Who is the GM Tipster backing in Kenya this week?

Betting slip graphic and three golfers
(Image credit: Future)

Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips 2022

The DP World Tour resumes after an enforced two-week, Covid-related break with the first of three tournaments in Africa, the Magical Kenya Open at Muthaiga.

There’s nothing very magical about the field however. You have to scroll down to 73rd on the world ratings to find the 12/1 favourite Dean Burmester and only six of those tackling this 7184-yard par 71 test rank in the top hundred.

Muthaiga, just outside Nairobi, has hosted this national Open 40 times although not since 2018 before it was elevated to main-tour status. Looking at the 2017 edition there gives the clue to why Francesco Laporta is the No.1 selection this week. Aaron Rai who won that year has gone on to main-tour success and started to make a name for himself in the States, so the form looks good.

Laporta shared third place with Matt Wallace, another subsequent multiple main-tour champion, so the Italian was mixing in talented company. It is surprising he has yet to win although he shone in tip-top company at Wentworth last year when briefly threatening a BMW PGA upset.

And although he eventually subsided to sixth behind American raider Billy Horschel it was still an eye-catching effort, and not the only one in a campaign that also saw him runner-up in the Dubai Championship, fourth in the Irish and Italian Opens and seventh in the Algarve.

Those Dubai and Portuguese performances in November rounded off a year of progress for the swarthy 31-year-old, a dual Challenge Tour winner in 2019. True, Laporta has done nothing of note yet this year but this modest affair could be the scene of an overdue main-tour breakthrough and 55/1 looks more than fair.

Burmester has also struggled in the early desert skirmishes and on a visit to Pebble Beach where he missed the cut but found his game when shooting 22 under for second place in the Dimension Data at Fancourt on the Sunshine Tour.

At the prices, three other South Africans look better bets. Justin Harding is a Kenya specialist and will be disappointed this event is not being played at Karen, the other classy Nairobi club where he won last year and finished runner-up in 2019. He looked like grabbing an early 2022 victory when leading the Dubai Desert Classic field a merry dance but a Sunday 76 knocked him back to fourth place. Little fazes this laid-back character and he posted another top-ten next time out at Ras Al Khaimah.

Daniel Van Tonder won the Savannah Classic when Karen played host for a second week in Kenya last March. That was part of a superb year for him as he won four on the Sunshine circuit. He posted decent finishes at Ras Al Khaimah and should contend.

Compatriot Oliver Bekker impressed recently, making the top ten in both Ras Al Khaimah tournaments. This seven-time Sunshine Tour winner has form at Muthaiga - sixth to Lorenzo Gagli when the course was last used for a Challenge Tour event.

Of the British contingent, Marcus Armitage and Scott Jamieson look worth an interest as both played good golf in the Gulf. European Open champion Armitage’s 12th in Dubai and ninth in the Ras Al Khaimah Classic read well at this level, while Jamieson matched that with a ninth at Ras Al Khaimah and tenth in Abu Dhabi.

The problem with the Scot is that he can’t ever seem to finish the job off. It is ten years since his lone victory and when presented with a cast-iron chance in Abu Dhabi he folded like a pack of cards with a 77.

Kenya is almost a home game for Indian No. 1 Shubhankar Sharma and if he can recapture the form that took him into second place behind Thomas Pieters in Abu Dhabi or his Spanish Open third last October he will again be in the shake-up. You can go broke backing serial losers Thomas Detry and Adri Arnaus but there’s no denying they have the tools to run away with this.

Preference is for giant Pole Adrian Meronk who keeps knocking on the door and has a Muthaiga fifth from 2017 on his CV while American Johannes Veerman, a first-time winner last year, is also short-listed. But we can’t back them all!

Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips 2022

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Jeremy Chapman
GM Tipster

Celebrating my 52nd year tipping and writing about golf. Tipped more than 800 winners (and more than 8000 losers!). First big winner Lee Trevino at 8-1, 1972 Open at Muirfield. Biggest win £40 each-way Ernie Els at 80-1 and 50-1, 2012 Open. Most memorable: Giving the 1-2-3 at 33-1, 50-1, 33-1 out of 4 tips from a field of 180 in 2006 Pebble Beach Pro-Am. According to one bookmaker “Undoubtedly one of the greatest tipping performances of all time”. And, of course, putting up a 150/1 winner with Stewart Cink in my very first column for Golf Monthly. Lowest handicap 9 Present handicap 35.6. Publications tipped for: Sporting Life, Racing Post, Racing&Football Outlook, Golf World, Golf Weekly, Golf Monthly, Fitzdares Times. Check our Jeremy's latest tips at our Golf Betting tips home page