Farmers Insurance Open Golf Betting Tips 2022

Torrey Pines hosts the Farmers Insurance Open this week - who will win?

Betting slip graphic with three golfers
(Image credit: Future)

Jon Rahm

3pts each way at 7/1 with Bet365 (opens in new tab)

It won’t be a stroll in the park for World No.1 Rahm but he was 33 under par at Kapalua three weeks ago and his driving is a wonder to behold. This is of course the venue for his 2021 US Open triumph too, as well as his 2017 Farmers win.

Marc Leishman

1pt each way at 35/1 with Bet365 (opens in new tab)

It is 2020 champion Leishman who could be Rahm’s main challenger. All eight of his rounds in Hawaii were in the 60s and he began the 21/22 campaign with a pair of top fours at Fortinet and Las Vegas.

Francesco Molinari

1pt each way at 80/1 with Bet365 (opens in new tab)

Class is forever so we’ll give Molinari another spin. He won’t be 200/1 after last week but the long course didn’t bother him last year when he was tenth in the Farmers and seventh at the US Open.

Xander Schauffele

1pt each way at 20/1 with 888Sport (opens in new tab)

San Diego native Xander Schauffele, fourth in this and seventh at the US Open last year, will enjoy big crowd support in search of PGA Tour title number five.

Hideki Matsuyama

1pt each way at 22/1 with Bet365 (opens in new tab)

Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama is already a January winner after victory at the Sony Open. He also won the Zozo two starts ago in Japan.

Farmers Insurance Open Golf Betting Tips 2022

Don’t say I didn’t warn you! The American Express and its three-course pro-am format has long been a graveyard of champions and a lip-smacking meal ticket for golfers unfamiliar to all but dyed-in-the-wool followers of the game. The list of three-figure-odds winners at La Quinta down the year has marked what most of us old guys still call the ‘Bob Hope’ as a tournament to avoid for punting purposes.

Adam Long, Andrew Landry, Hudson Swafford … who had heard of them? So Swafford going in again at 250/1 wasn’t in the Emma Raducanu or Leicester City category of seismic shocks.

And if the canny 34-year-old had posted even one top-30 in eights starts this wrap-around season, or if his 2017 victory had not been followed by a 65th and two missed cuts in subsequent visits, those juicy odds would indeed have been tempting. 

With world No. 1 Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay in opposition, any outsider punt was always going to be highly speculative and it was Sod’s Law that the previous AmEx winner picked here was the wrong one, 2020 champion Landry, on the basis that two years before that victory he had taken Rahm to a playoff.

While Landry perished this time, the other big-priced recommendation, the revived Francesco Molinari, did us proud, even having backers dreaming of big bucks when he jumped into a share of the lead with a few holes to play.

Those who took the 150/1 with bookies going eight places or better (half of them) got the full 30/1 for the Italian’s three-way share of sixth. Those who went for the biggest price, 200/1, got nothing. Best price, worst place terms. That’s the dilemma for punters. We have to use our judgment, can’t have it all ways!

Such a strange performance by Rahm. Right there after round one, then the machine stalled. For most in the field, 14th would have been fine but when you’re the main man. Fiddly, ‘easy’ courses don’t play to the Spaniard’s strengths but there can be no excuses this week when the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines has a rare Wednesday start to avoid a Sunday TV audience head-to-head with big NFL action and come out a clear second-best in the ratings.

Yes, we’re off to San Diego, the second of four stops in California and scene not only of Rahm’s first Major triumph last June but also where he made his PGA Tour breakthrough so dramatically five years ago. You can’t have better golfing mental associations than that combo.

Jon Rahm celebrates

Rahm's maiden Major triumph came at the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines

(Image credit: Getty Images)

Only an eight-birdie last-round blitz by Marc Leishman prevented a Rahm encore in 2020 when he led going into Sunday and last year’s seventh to runaway winner Patrick Reed was a decent prep for a far tougher Open test four months later, his six-under-par tally in June proving just one too good for Louis Oosthuizen.

It has to be borne in mind that all four rounds in the Major were played on the 7765-yard South Course whereas the Farmers uses the much-easier North (7258 yards) to share the burden until the halfway cut.

With Dustin Johnson making his 2022 bow - his first appearance since a T45 in the CJ Cup in October - and those dazzling but unpredictable pals Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth among the opposition, it won’t be a stroll in the park for Rahm but he was 33 under par at Kapalua three weeks ago and his driving is a wonder to behold.

It’s a deep field too. San Diego native Xander Schauffele, fourth in this and seventh at the US Open, will enjoy big crowd support (although not as noisy as longtime San Diego resident Phil Mickelson’s).

Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama is already a January winner, Reed’s 274 was the only score double digits under par last year and Bryson DeChambeau is back after pulling out of the Sony with a sore wrist. Matsuyama rates the pick of that trio on recent evidence and has additionally to be short-listed on account of his Torrey third to Justin Rose three years ago but it is 2020 champion Leishman who could be Rahm’s main challenger.

All eight of his rounds in Hawaii were in the 60s and he began the 21/22 campaign with a pair of top fours at Fortinet and Las Vegas. Australia’s Ashes demolition job and Cam Smith’s Rahm-taming at Kapalua will be spurs as they will for dual Torrey champion Jason Day, alas not the force he was but a definite outsider with a shout on the horses-for-courses score.

Class is forever so we’ll give Molinari another spin. He won’t be 200/1 after last week but the long course didn’t bother him last year when he was tenth in the Farmers and seventh at the US Open. 

Thomas, fifth at Kapalua after making up for a slow start with a fast finish, looks next in line if my five picks don’t fire but I’m against Brooks Koepka and last year’s runner-up Tony Finau as they don’t look quite right yet.

Farmers Insurance Open Golf Betting Tips 2022

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Celebrating my 50th year tipping and writing about golf. Tipped more than 800 winners (and more than 8000 losers!). First big winner Lee Trevino at 8-1, 1972 Open at Muirfield. Biggest win £40 each-way Ernie Els at 80-1 and 50-1, 2012 Open. Most memorable: Giving the 1-2-3 at 33-1, 50-1, 33-1 out of 4 tips from a field of 180 in 2006 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.  According to one bookmaker “Undoubtedly one of the greatest tipping performances of all time”. Lowest handicap 9 Present handicap 35.6. Publications tipped for: Sporting Life, Racing Post, Racing&Football Outlook, Golf World, Golf Weekly, Golf Monthly, Fitzdares Times. Check our Jeremy's latest tips at our Golf Betting tips home page