The European Tour returns to the sensational Valderrama this week. Who does our tipster think will win?
Andalucia Valderrama Masters Golf Betting Tips 2021
Andalucia Valderrama Masters Golf Betting Tips 2021
It was a Spanish one-two in Madrid without world No. 1 and hot favourite Jon Rahm even coming into the conversation. Sometimes golf is totally incomprehensible!
With Rahm having a rare rough week at the office, Rafa Cabrera Bello and Adri Arnaus stepped into the breach to fight out the Spanish Open and we saw why Arnaus, for all his ability, remains a maiden as he failed to hole the 7ft par putt on the home hole that would have given him the long-awaited breakthrough.
It wasn’t so much that he missed it, more the awful stroke he put on that life-changing putt.
As for Cabrera Bello, the 55/1 winner, I couldn’t have backed him with a dud fiver after two years where his game, once good enough for Ryder Cup honours, had gone into freefall.
Based mainly in the USA, he hadn’t posted even a top-ten there since Bay Hill in April 2019 while a fourth place first time out in Abu Dhabi in his European campaign turned out to be a false dawn as there had not been even a top-30 since … until Sunday.
The clue, if there was one, was his second place to Rahm on the same Madrid course when the Open was last staged two years ago.
Somehow the Canary Islander reached back into his memory bank to pluck out the good and shove the bad out of bounds.
With the European Tour staying in Spain this week for a far different examination at Valderrama for the Andalucian Masters, Rahm and Rafa resume hostilities and it would take a brave man to predict Cabrera Bello putting Rahm to the sword in consecutive weeks.
After Rahm’s opening 63 on Thursday virtually killed off the betting side of the tournament, or so we all thought, but explaining away what unfurled over the next three days takes a deal of understanding.
Maybe the lingering effects of Covid were to blame but something must have been bothering him apart from the noisy crowd.
When you’re making mistakes, the crowd is often the easiest thing to blame - Jacklin and Monty always gave the fans a glare after duffing a shot - and it was a shame to see the old temperament problem returning.
He will probably win but his chance is less obvious than last week and taking the 16/5 is a matter of personal judgment.
I am less keen to be involved on a course which may drive him nuts.
Great players like great fighters - wasn’t Tyson Fury fabulous? - get up after being knocked down and proud Rahm, who was a remote runner-up to Christiaan Bezuidenhout in the 2019 edition, won’t be turning out to finish 17th again, that’s for sure.
The 7028 yards of par-71 Valderrama are a mystery wrapped in a riddle for some.
It’s a one-off with its trees in the fairway or overhanging to prevent golfers not in the perfect spot on the fairway getting a clear sight of the green.
It’s a shot-makers’ course where the driver often has to be kept in the bag and positive course experience of the 1997 Ryder Cup venue is a huge plus.
That’s why Sergio Garcia has such a fabulous record there, so it’s a great pity he won’t be there to attempt a fourth course victory.
That said, I’m making an executive decision to overlook the fact that Indian ace Shubhankar Sharma missed the cut on his last two visits to Valderrama and put him up as an each-way alternative to the favourite.
My argument is that his game was in a parlous state for the past two seasons but now he’s back in the groove that got him two wins in two months around the turn of the year in 2017-18.
Third place to Rafa on Sunday was his best finish for ages but was on the cards after a hot run that kicked off with 12th place in Rome and ninth in top company at Wentworth.
With five top-16s from his eight pre-Madrid appearances, he’s been revving up for a while and this course really should show this accurate, tidy player in a good light.
Also easy to make a case for is steady Andrew “Beef” Johnston because Valderrama was the scene of his only tour triumph in the 2016 Spanish Open.
He couldn’t handle a spell in the States but back on his home tour he has caught the eye more than once, notably a sixth to Danny Willett in the tour’s flagship BMW PGA Championship a few weeks back.
Following on 14th in Munich and ninth in Ireland, this great character would be one of 2021’s most popular winners.
Johnston’s winning score in 2016 was one over par, so don’t expect a flood of birdies this week.
Old Joe Par was also the winner of last year’s Masters, quiet American John Catlin’s two-over 286 good enough for a one-stroke victory over the disappointing Martin Kaymer.
He’s not in great form but one thing you can be sure about is that he knows how to win when he gets the chance.
Two more victories, in Ireland and Austria, followed that Valderrama breakthrough and although he missed the cut in Madrid, the two tests have little in common.
With confidence restored, there’s no reason why Cabrera Bello can’t follow up other than the fact that Valderrama is rarely on his itinerary - 16th in 2016 on his last visit - which suggests it’s not a course that suits him.
There are plenty more with a chance in a slightly stronger field than Madrid - Matt Fitzpatrick and Arron Rai are there this time but 12/1 is just too short for what the former has achieved this year.
Bernd Wiesberger can never be ignored and Hero Open winner Grant Forrest covered the last nine in Madrid in 28 blows for third place so could hardly be heading south in a better frame of mind.
The long-hitting Scot may find the course too claustrophobic for his game and marginal preference is for Richard Bland who is more likely to enjoy Valderrama’s bag of tricks.
Bland, who added yet another top-ten to his growing portfolio in Madrid, was 11th to Johnston in the Spanish Open here five years ago and is a vastly different proposition since chalking up the long-overdue first win at The Belfry.
Check out how the GM Tipster is getting on this year on our Golf Betting Tips homepage.
Andalucia Valderrama Masters Golf Betting Tips 2021 - advised bets
We continually check thousands of prices to show you the best deals. If you buy a product through our site we will earn a small commission from the retailer – a sort of automated referral fee – but our reviewers are always kept separate from this process. You can read more about how we make money in our Ethics Policy.
Top Golf Betting Offers
Bet £10 Get Up To £30 in FREE Bets + 30 Free Casino Spins
Register using the promo code SPORTS60, deposit and place first bet of £10 (Evens+) in one bet transaction. £30 in Free Bets credited within 10 hours of bet settlement. Up to 30 Free Spins on selected slots games. T&C's Apply
BetFred
|
Get up to £30 in FREE Bets
|
Code = SPORTS60
Code = SPORTS60
|
Get up to £30 in FREE Bets
|
BetFred
Up to £100 in Bet Credits for New Customers
Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
Bet365
|
Up to £100
|
in Bet Credits for New Customers
in Bet Credits for New Customers
|
Up to £100
|
Bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
New customers only. Min deposit £10. Qualifying bet is ‘real money’ stake of at least £10. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Free Bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement expires after 7 days. Free Bet stakes not included in returns. Deposit balance available for withdrawal at any time. Withdrawal restrictions & full T&Cs apply
888 Sport
|
£30 FREE Bet
|
+ £10 Casino Bonus
+ £10 Casino Bonus
|
£30 FREE Bet
|
888 Sport
4 x £10 Free Bets if any of your 4 bets lose: Place a single £10 Exchange bet and get a free Exchange bet if it loses. Max refund per qualifying bet is £10. Payment method restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
BetFair Exchange
|
4 x £10 Bets
|
Code = ZSKAFE
Code = ZSKAFE
|
4 x £10 Bets
|
BetFair Exchange
Powered by Golf Monthly
About our deals
New Customers Only. 18+ T&C Apply BeGambleAware
-
Scottie Scheffler Set To Overtake Six-Time Major Winner For Consecutive Weeks As World No.1The 28-year-old will soon reach 82 weeks at the top of the world rankings, overtaking Nick Faldo
-
Legendary Sports Commentator Puts In $50,000 Bid For Scottie Scheffler's First CarThe World No.1's car is being auctioned, and CBC Sports broadcaster Jim Nantz has made the opening bid
-
Rory McIlroy Gym Routine... Revealed!In this Rory McIlroy Gym Routine article we discover how the Northern Irishman keeps himself so fit
-
What Is Tiger Woods' Net Worth?Tiger Woods became the first billion dollar athlete in 2009
-
The Masters Live Stream: How To Watch The MajorHere are all the details on how you can watch the Major wherever you are in the world.
-
Five Outsiders Who Could Win The MastersWe consider five players who might surprise the favourites and claim victory at Augusta
-
Who Is Tiger Woods’ Girlfriend?Find out more on who the American professional golfer is going out with here.
-
Bermuda Championship Golf Betting Tips 2021Who is the GM Tipster backing to win this week in Bermuda?
-
Jeff Winther Claims Maiden European Tour TitleJeff Winther Claims Maiden European Tour Title
-
Fredrik Andersson Hed Passes Away Following Battle With CancerFredrik Andersson Hed Passes Away Following Battle With Cancer
