Is One Half Of The Draw Going To Have An Advantage At The Open?

It’s one of the vagaries of professional golf. As an individual sport played outdoors over several hours, the elements can, and often do, play a major role in determining which player prevails. And this is especially true when it comes to links golf.

We have seen several instances of players finding themselves on the ‘wrong’ side of the draw when it comes to the weather at The Open.

In 2009 at Trump Turnberry, the early starters on Friday for the second round had to deal with strong wind and rain before the conditions eased for the afternoon wave.

The same scenario played out at Royal Troon for the 2016 Open. After an idyllic Thursday and a calm Friday morning, some of the worst weather imaginable rolled through the west coast of Scotland, leaving those with a late second-round tee time at a serious disadvantage.

There are various other examples littered through the years. But what does the weather have in store for golfers at Royal Birkdale this year? And will it favor one half of the draw over the other across the first two days in particular?

Let’s take a look.

Thursday

The weather in the build-up to this year’s edition of the game’s oldest championship has been unusually brilliant. A long spell of sunshine has left the course looking baked, setting up the prospect of a firm and fast links feast.

And the forecast is for more sun across the four tournament days, so players should not have any rain to contend with. But the ever-present wind could have a role to play.

For Thursday’s opening round, players out early have got the best of the conditions, having to deal with a wind of just 4-8mph and manageable gusts of 13mph. Making the most of that could set the early Thursday wave up for a charge at claiming the Claret Jug.

The late first-round wave will have it slightly harder. The wind is forecast to get up to 10-15mph with gusts of 22mph. They will have played in worse but it’s not an insignificant increase from the morning.

Friday

Into Friday’s second round and the outlook is similar. And by similar, it is set to be identical.

Those out in the morning will have contend with a 4-8mph wind and gusts of 13mph, while for the afternoon starters, it is to blow at 10-15mph with gusts of 22mph.

That could allow players who have made a poor start in the stronger wind on Thursday to put themselves back into the mix, while those who took advantage of the favorable early first-round conditions could come back to the field.

So, does one wave have an advantage?

With conditions set to be virtually the same across the first two days, and, looking ahead, for the entire tournament, conventional wisdom would be to say that neither side of the draw has it better than the other.

However, given the early tournament nerves that will be pulsing for the first round in particular, the calm Thursday morning could give the early-late wave the slight edge