'If It Plays Firm And Fast, He's Definitely Someone To Keep An Eye On' – Wayne Riley Picks His Open Champion, Reveals Two Players To Watch And Assesses Birkdale's Changes

With The Open Championship almost upon us, Sky Sports commentator and Golf Monthly columnist Wayne 'Radar' Riley shares his views on the tournament, the contenders and the golf course...

"I'm getting excited for Birkdale now – it's a great course and one of my favourite Open venues. I think Birkdale, Carnoustie and Muirfield are the fairest courses on the Open rota and they all test every area of your game.

What I like about them is you don't get some of the mad bounces that happen at other links courses – if you drive a ball in the fairway, it's likely to stay there. There aren't many buried elephants that send the ball bouncing off into the rough; the humps and hollows are more subtle.

I'm looking forward to and checking out some of the course changes, too. The par-4 5th has been redesigned, the 7th has been reshaped, the old 15th has become the par-5 14th and a new par 3 has been introduced, which is now the longest short hole on the course.

The 18th has been modified as well, making it trickier than before. I'm licking my lips just thinking about Birkdale. Southport is a great town, and fans come in from all over the north and further afield to create a truly fantastic atmosphere.

If Royal Birkdale plays firm and fast for The Open Championship – which it's forecast to – Aaron Rai is someone to keep an eye on. I always felt he had the game and, arguably more importantly, the demeanour to win a Major, as he did at the US PGA.

He's claimed some big titles on the DP World Tour and registered his first PGA Tour win in 2024. Time will tell if he finishes his career in the popular one-and-done Major club or goes on to achieve more, but no one can take Aronimink away from him.

After he hit his tee shot on the 17th to 70ft, I took a look at the putt and it had more movement than a rollercoaster. Getting down in two from there would have been a great effort. I was just behind the green when it turned towards the hole 12 feet out and fell into the cup and the noise was just deafening.

It was the kind of ‘pinch-me' moment all the best Major back nines have. Rai's performance over those closing holes was one of the best efforts I've seen from anybody, let alone someone who hasn't won a Major before. It was fairytale stuff.

As for my Birkdale prediction, it won't surprise you to learn I think Scottie Scheffler will go back-to-back. Even though he's not been at his very best this year and he's coming off his first missed cut in three years at the Scottish Open, he has all the tools and is by far the best player in the world on his day. I think that missed cut will fuel him, I really do.

If you're looking for an outsider, keep an eye on Alex Fitzpatrick, who was 17th on his Open debut in 2023 and has enjoyed a break-out season on the PGA Tour."

A former member of the European Tour and two-time winner, Wayne is part of the Sky Sports golf team. He writes exclusively for Golf Monthly