Rory McIlroy bids to follow Jon Rahm’s lead and give Europe back-to-back PGA Tour victories when the Wells Fargo Championship moves from North Carolina to Maryland while the usual venue, Quail Hollow, is readied for Presidents Cup duty in September.
McIlroy will be miffed he will be defending the Wells Fargo on new terrain as he is a triple winner at Quail Hollow, a course that means so much to the Northern Irishman as it was there, two days shy of his 21st birthday, that he opened his US account, slamming the redoubtable Phil Mickelson by four shots.
Defraying any disappointment at the switch to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm will be the fact that Rory’s best 2022 performance is his most recent, a fast-finishing second at Augusta National and the closest he has come yet to completing that elusive career Slam.
While not convinced that his greatest asset, length, is going to be shown to best advantage at a par 70 measuring only 7160 yards, sheer class could get him past the post, just as it did for Rahm, a wire-to-wire winner in Mexico on Sunday. McIlroy has never played a tournament at TPC Potomac but did win the 2011 US Open just down the road at Congressional, and by eight shots.
It was an overdue first victory of the year for Rahm who should have won more easily against the weakest opposition he’s faced for a long time, particularly after starting so well. An improved putting display got him home by an edgy shot but the around-the-green skills need to sharpen up before the PGA just two weeks away and next month’s US Open defence at Brookline.
Although pleased Rahm landed our hefty 4-point punt (Davis Riley supplemented the Mexican booty by finishing solo fifth at 55/1), he failed to convince everybody and there’s plenty of 12/1 still available for the remaining two American Majors.
There’s no Rahm for Rory to beat this week which is why he’s a warm favourite in a field tougher than the one Rahm beat but the man who emerged from Mexico as a big positive after a hitherto dismal season was Tony Finau.
He looks the one to beat even though he too, as a bomber, would prefer a longer, wider course. With the putter finally behaving, Finau improved day by day, his 66-63 for 129 on the weekend eight superior to the winner.
With a smarter start, that share of second place (with outsiders Brandon Wu and Kurt Kitayama) might well have been a ‘W’ although Wu could say the same as he posted identical weekend scores. Wu, in fact, could be better suited by the course as the players who shone at Avenel when that course hosted the Quicken Loans in 2017-18 were steady-as-you-go operators. The neat 2020 Korn Ferry Tour champion had already shown promise when third in Puerto Rico in early March.
Europe is mob-handed. Not only McIlroy but good cases can be made for Tyrrell Hatton, Paul Casey, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sergio Garcia and Arron Rai, with Fitzpatrick’s tidy game perfect for the course and Rai (6th at Torrey Pines, 4th in New Orleans) also the right type. But at eight points longer than Fitzpatrick, Hatton rates the value if he can reproduce that Bay Hill second or even his 13th at the Players. He will be a winner this year.
Francesco Molinari ruled supreme at Avenel, by eight strokes no less, in 2018, his annus mirabilis. That glorious year he won the Open, the BMW PGA Championship and the Italian Open as well, plus a five-from-five killer show at the Ryder Cup. That seemed to burn him out but there were a couple of early signs this year that the little Italian was not entirely a back number and at 100/1 he’s worth a tiny tickle.
More obvious winners are veteran Keegan Bradley, stylish Canadian Corey Conners and Russell Henley while Patrick Reed’s improved performance in Mexico after a rough stretch is worth noting. Bradley is of particular interest as the 2011 PGA champion has got his second wind with a flurry of eye-catching efforts, 11th at Bay Hill, seventh at Sawgrass and eighth in the Texas Open being followed by a fine team fourth with Brendan Steele in New Orleans. He has course form too - fifth in the 2017 Quicken Loans.
Wells Fargo Championship Golf Betting Tips 2022
- 2pts each-way Tony Finau at 22/1 (William Hill) 8 places
- 2pts each-way Rory McIlroy at 17/2 (William Hill) 8 places
- 1pt each-way Keegan Bradley at 33/1 (William Hill) 8 places
- 0.5pt each-way Tyrrell Hatton at 33/1 (William Hill) 8 places
- 0.5pt each-way Brandon Wu at 70/1 (Bet365) 5 places
- 0.25pt each-way Francesco Molinari at 100/1 (Bet365) 5 places
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