Pebble Beach Pro-Am DFS Picks and Targets
Matt MacKay provides the best DFS picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at both FanDuel and DraftKings for this week's stop on the PGA Tour.
The 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am is set to take place along the Monterey Peninsula in Northern California this weekend at one of golf’s most iconic venues. Pebble Beach is the site for this Pro-Am, featuring 156 players, amateurs, and celebrities competing in various events for charity, FedExCup qualifications, and of course, the winning purse and hardware for the outright winner. We’ll continue to see a unique format with a three-course rotation between Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill, and the Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course. The cut-line will be enforced after players have had a chance to play a round at each of the three courses, meaning the top 60 will advance to Sunday’s final round for a second stint at Pebble Beach GL.
There’s quite a bit of difficulty when it comes to finding the greens at these three courses in the Monterey Peninsula, as they measure roughly 3,500 square feet, which is the smallest on the PGA Tour. Precision with irons and ball striking to convert greens in regulation is the primary strength to conquer these courses and flood scorecards with red numbers. It becomes even more brutal to assess which players will deliver birdies and avoid bogeys, which is the coveted currency toward constructing and cashing DFS lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel contests.
There won’t be a lot of forgiving opportunities, but each course is comprised of Poa Annua greens that run 12 feet via the Stimpmeter, which is a standard velocity. Since amateurs are competing alongside the professionals in this event, the rough is trimmed to two inches, so it’s not as punishing as other courses for errant drives, tee shots, and approach shots from the fairway. However, over 100 sand bunkers and sloping Poa Annua greens will compensate for the lack of water, trees, and other overgrown roughness. Precision is the name of the game entering Pebble Beach, so let’s explore which players to invest in when constructing DFS builds ahead of Thursday’s opening tee times.
DraftKings - $50,000 Maximum Salary (6 players)
Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,100)
One of the best ball-strikers in this event is Matt Fitzpatrick. The 28-year-old Englishman has only competed in two events this season, but he’s logged finishes of T13 and T7 while getting a few weeks of rest to prepare for Pebble Beach. Fitzpatrick has minimal flaws in his game, which is why he has 11/1 odds to win outright, joined only by Jordan Spieth. Fitzpatrick logged a T6 at Pebble Beach in 2022 and went T12 at Pebble Beach during the U.S. Open in 2019. He’s ranked seventh in greens in regulation percentage, converting over 76 percent while averaging 4.5 birdies per round. Prioritize building your lineups around Fitzpatrick, who should be treated as a blue-chip prospect on DraftKings.
Andrew Putnam ($9,700)
Andrew Putnam has played five times the number of events compared to Fitzpatrick, leading to two T10 finishes and a second-place finish at ZOZO back in October. The 34-year-old American averages 82.9 FPPG on DraftKings and has made all 10 cuts while boasting a 71.9 percent greens in regulation conversion rate, ranked 41st on the PGA Tour. At under $10,000, Putnam is a solid value and will only help, not hurt, your DraftKings lineups at Pebble Beach this weekend.
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Thomas Detry ($8,800)
A salary-saving prospect with massive upside at Pebble Beach this weekend is Belgian golfer Thomas Detry. He has made all nine of the cuts he’s competed in while logging two T10 finishes and pouring in ten birdies at the Farmers Insurance Open last weekend. Detry averages 85.6 FPPG on DraftKings and is a fraction of the cost of bigger-name players like Spieth and Fitzpatrick. He averages 4.6 birdies per round and ranks 40th in strokes gained around the green, so Detry is a fantastic value addition to DFS lineups despite making his debut at this event.
FanDuel - $60,000 Maximum Salary (6 players)
Jordan Spieth ($11,900)
After flirting with making a run at the outright lead at Sentry and Sony, Jordan Spieth has taken a few weeks off after imploding in the second round of the Sony Open, finishing +5 in the second round to miss the cut after going six-under-par in the opening round. Pebble Beach is Spieth’s bread and butter. He won here in 2017 and lost by two strokes to Tom Hoge in 2022 while also logging several other T10 finishes in his highly-decorated career. It’ll cost a pretty penny to acquire the betting favorite at a course that he historically dominates, but it’ll pay off throughout the weekend. Converting over 71 percent of greens in regulation and averaging 4.4 birdies is enough to seal the deal on Spieth when setting lineups on FanDuel.
Joel Dahmen ($10,600)
At 45/1 odds, Joel Dahmen isn’t considered a front-runner at Pebble Beach, but he is worth investing in. The 35-year-old American converts over 72 percent of greens in regulation, ranks 28th in strokes gained approaching the green, and only struggles with his putter in the five unique strokes gained metrics that get tracked in each event. Dahmen has three consecutive T10 finishes but hasn’t competed in over two months, so he should be plenty fresh at an event he logged a T6 finish in 2022. Pay up for Dahmen in FanDuel lineups and watch the points accumulate throughout the weekend.
Brendon Todd ($9,500)
One of the standout prospects available to roster under $10,000 on FanDuel is Brendon Todd. The 37-year-old American has some of the best irons in the game, especially approaching the green and around the green while utilizing the 33rd-ranked strokes gained putter to separate himself from other cheaper players. A 4.6 birdie average is enticing enough, but coupled with his sharp irons and ability to recover from bunker shots. Todd is a huge value that should be prioritized when creating lineups on FanDuel. He’s had an up-and-down season but has managed two T10 finishes and missed three cuts, so Todd is a more volatile option with the upside needed to cash DFS contests at Pebble Beach.
Matt MacKay is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game from a fantasy sports and sports betting perspective. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly aiming to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.
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