John Deere Classic Odds and Betting Preview

The 2023 John Deere Classic is set to get underway from TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois this week. It’s a fun event that tends to cede a lot of birdies, much like what we just witnessed during Rickie Fowler’s impressive comeback win in a three-man playoff at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Ball strikers are always a commodity at courses with small green surface areas, especially with the number of sand bunkers placed along the fairways and around the greens.

J.T. Poston will attempt to defend his title from last year, where he started -9-under-par to become the third wire-to-wire champion at the John Deere Classic since its inception. It’s been a mediocre year at best for Poston, who has not cracked a T25 finish since going T10 at Valspar back in mid-March. This means other players will have a lot of opportunities, especially in a particularly loaded field. Nine of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world will be competing at TPC Deere Run this week, which is the most in over a decade.

Cameron Young sits at the top of the outright betting leaderboard, followed by Russell Henley and Denny McCarthy. Ludvig Aberg and Adam Hadwin round out the top five outright betting favorites right now, while our defending champion, J.T. Poston, sits behind all of them at 35/1 odds. From an outright betting perspective, there’s a ton of value on this slate, especially at a course designed to yield birdies and eagles to produce abundant red scorecards.

Let’s look at the outright betting odds leaderboard as it stands on Monday morning, then recap previous winners, relevant betting stats, and an in-depth course analysis of TPC Deere Run. Lastly, we will explore five of my favorite golfers to place outright wagers on and reveal why each one deserves an investment ahead of Thursday’s opening round from Silvis, Illinois.

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John Deere Classic Betting Odds

2023 John Deere Classic Betting Preview

Previous Winners

• 2022 - J.T. Poston (-21)
• 2021 - Lucas Glover (-19)
• 2020 - Cancelled
• 2019 - Dylan Frittelli (--21)
• 2018 - Michael Kim (-27)

Relevant Betting Stats

• Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee
• Greens in Regulation percentage
• Scrambling
• Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
• Driving Accuracy percentage
• Sand Save percentage
• Birdie Average

Course Layout

TPC Deere Run is a par 71 that runs under 7,300 yards in length. Designed by D.A. Weibring, this track has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour schedule since its inaugural event was held in 1996. Built on land that used to be an Arabian horse farm, there is quite a bit of elevation at TPC Deere Run, as it's sandwiched between Rock River and the iconic Mississippi River. The course opens up with a couple of easy holes, which should ease players into red scorecards before enduring a tough stretch from holes 4-9, which contains five par 4s and one par 3.

Water hazards appear from time to time, but the main hazard is the sprawling sand bunkers that flank the fairways and small-sized greens. Sand save percentage is an underrated metric that will be relevant at TPC Deere Run, along with driving accuracy percentage. Most of the fairways are doglegged, so ball striking off of the tee will be important, but the width of these fairways is a bit more forgiving than we've seen at other recent courses. Finding greens in regulations is always a plus, especially when they are on the smaller side of average. Tree-lined fairways will prove difficult with poor tee shots, but there are also thick rows of trees behind most of the greens, creating equally poor scrambling chances for ball strikers using too much power and not enough finesse. 

Top Players To Bet For Outright John Deere Classic Winner

Denny McCarthy (+1400) (Bet $100 to collect $1,500) Head to DraftKings for the best Denny McCarthy odds

Denny McCarthy is still seeking his first career win on the PGA Tour, falling short to Viktor Hovland in a playoff at the Memorial a few weeks ago. The 30-year-old McCarthy has plenty of experience and talent to get him atop the leaderboard, especially on this slate. He’s ranked fourth in total strokes gained putting, 11th in one-putt percentage, 16th in bogey avoidance, and ninth in scrambling. He produced a T6 finish at this event in 2022, while McCarthy has also three T10 finishes across his last six events played. He sits atop the outright betting favorites for a reason, so despite playing the chalk, 14/1 is an excellent number to acquire ahead of McCarthy’s opening round on Thursday, so let’s invest confidently.

Ludvig Aberg (+2200) (Bet $100 to collect $2,300) DraftKings has the best Ludvig Aberg odds

While Ludvig Aberg didn’t sustain his insane efficiency hitting fairways and greens in regulation at the Rocket Mortgage Classic for all four rounds, we saw enough to recognize his pure talent. Recently turning pro after competing in several events as an amateur earlier in the PGA Tour season, the 23-year-old Swede is seeking his fourth T25 finish in his past five events played. His putter is not a strength yet, but Aberg has a powerful driver, accurate ball striking, and nice tough approaching the greens. If he can avoid faltering down the stretch, which is a pretty big “if”, considering his previous lackluster finishes, then Aberg will be a frontrunner on Sunday. Let’s lay a unit on Aberg at 20/1 and watch the young talent thrive at a course that rewards his pure ball-striking ability.

Adam Schenk (+3000) (Bet $100 to collect $3,100) Go to BetMGM for the best Adam Schenk odds

Adam Schenk may be my favorite outright bet of the week at TPC Deere Run. Schenk has not secured an outright win yet, so he’s got plenty of motivation, similar to McCarthy, losing in a playoff and rattling off three T7 finishes or better in three of his past five events. Yes, he missed two consecutive cuts during this recent stretch. However, Schenk has been productive in this course in previous outings. He withdrew due to a +6 opening round at TPC Deere Run in 2022, but Schenk went T4 in 2021, finishing -16-under-par, only three strokes behind winner Lucas Glover. There aren’t a lot of eye-popping metrics to convince skeptics, but Schenk’s ability to hit fairways and avoid bad lies will keep him in the running for his first outright win since joining the PGA Tour in 2015. Let’s lay a unit on Schenk’s outright odds, especially since he’s ranked 11th in total birdies, which will be necessary to win at a course like TPC Deere Run.

Alex Smalley (+4000) (Bet $100 to collect $4,100) For the best Alex Smalley odds go to DraftKings

Alex Smalley improved from a T47 finish to a T16 finish at this event from 2021 to 2022, plus he’s playing quality golf right now. The 26-year-old American has a T25 and a T10 finish in two of his previous three events, but he started and ended with mediocre results at the RMC last weekend, dropping to a T47 finish. His irons are the strength of Smalley’s game, ranked 33rd strokes gained tee-to-green, 39th approaching the green, and 18th finding greens in regulation. Smalley is ranked 23rd for proximity to the hole location, 44th in fairway proximity, and 53rd in scoring average at 70.581. Smalley is ranked 28th in total birdies, recording just over 300 this season, plus he’s ranked 40th in bounce back, showing his resiliency. It’s not a full unit wager for me, but I’ll gladly lay a half unit on Smalley’s 40/1 outright odds. The John Deere Classic has been known to give players the first outright win of their career, so this could be Smalley’s time to ascend and return huge value at his current outright price.