Following the attrition of both the Memorial Tournament and the US Open, the PGA Tour is currently experiencing a far more free-scoring period on the schedule with the Rocket Classic preceding this week's John Deere Classic.
Aldrich Potgieter was one of three players to post 22-under at Detroit Golf Club a few days ago - eventually going on to lift his maiden PGA Tour title in a playoff.
Although the emotional and physical toll on the young South African suggests he is unlikely to repeat his achievement in Silvis, Illinois, a similar winning score might well arise come Sunday evening from any of our 2025 John Deere Classic expert picks.
As a result, it will be important to make a particularly fast start at TPC Deere Run given the champion's score has only been less than 20-under on three occasions since 2008.
Just like its Tournament Players Club sibling last week, TPC Deere Run is far from one of the longer layouts on tour and provides plenty of birdie chances along the way. Therefore, choosing players who are capable of going low across a variety of different courses will be key.
A look back down the 18th hole at TPC Deere Run
Other factors to call into play include first-round scoring average, total number of birdies and total rounds in the 60s so far this year.
Taking all of those into account, who do I think has the best chance of leading the John Deere Classic after 18 holes?
John Deere Classic First-Round Leader Best Bet: Ben Griffin (+3300)
Picking Ben Griffin is basically a case of giving the rock to the hot hand. He's arguably the most in-form player in this field and has been playing his way straight onto Keegan Bradley's Ryder Cup roster ever since a T8th result at the PGA Championship.
Since Quail Hollow, the American has won his first solo PGA Tour title and gained strokes in every single area in each of the five events - with the exception being a minor wobble around the green at the Travelers Championship.
Going back to the important statistical categories that I mentioned earlier, however, Griffin is 17th on the PGA Tour in terms of Round One Scoring Average, he is second in terms of total birdies this year, and he's T2nd relating to rounds in the 60s.
If you're wondering about course form, allow me to encourage you further. In Griffin's only appearance at the John Deere Classic (2024), he finished T5th and improved his score as the week went on.
Given that his knowledge of TPC Deere Run continued to get better, and the fact that Hayden Springer carded one of the rare scores of 59 on the PGA Tour on Thursday 12 months ago, it remains possible that Griffin could go lower than the 62 he managed on Sunday...
John Deere Classic First-Round Leader Value Bet: Keith Mitchell (+6000)
While Keith Mitchell isn't exactly in the best of form right now, having missed the cut in two of his past four starts, his high ranking in a couple of key categories make him a potential sleeper pick in terms of round-one leader at the John Deere Classic.
Chiefly, he is second on the PGA Tour in terms of Round One Scoring Average behind only World No.1, Scottie Scheffler. In 15 starts through 25, Mitchell has averaged 67.73 strokes.
Another important category that Mitchell sits prominently in is birdie average. The Chattanooga, Tennessee-born pro has been rolling in 4.43 solo gains per round since the season began, finding a way to score well even if his game hasn't exactly been in the ideal spot.
Supplementing Mitchell's case is the fact that he's T28th for Rounds In The 60s this term and T32nd in terms of total birdies.
While his putting will have to improve at a course he has struggled to roll it well on previously, Mitchell has opened up with a 67, two 68s and a 69 in four historic starts so is more than capable of signing for a score in the mid-to-low 60s on Thursday.
JOHN DEERE CLASSIC FIRST-ROUND LEADER ODDS
First-round leader odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. All prices correct at time of publication.
- Ben Griffin (+3300)
- Jason Day (+4000)
- Michael Thorbjornsen (+4500)
- Luke Clanton (+4500)
- Jake Knapp (+4500)
- Aldrich Potgieter (+4500)
- Denny McCarthy (+4500)
- J.T. Poston (+4500)
- Davis Thompson (+5000)
- Kevin Yu (+5000)
- Chris Kirk (+5000)
- Si Woo Kim (+5000)
- Pierceson Coody (+5000)
- Chris Gotterup (+5000)
- Sungjae Im (+5000)
- Michael Kim (+5500)
- Lucas Glover (+5500)
- Bud Cauley (+5500)
- Ryan Gerard (+5500)
- Rickie Fowler (+6000)
- Kurt Kitayama (+6000)
- Mark Hubbard (+6000)
- Alex Smalley (+6000)
- Thorbjørn Olesen (+6000)
- Nico Echavarria (+6000)
- Sam Stevens (+6000)
- Keith Mitchell (+6000)
- Jesper Svensson (+6500)
- Jacob Bridgeman (+6500)
- Cameron Champ (+6500)
- Vince Whaley (+7000)
- Thriston Lawrence (+7000)
- Taylor Moore (+7000)
- Tom Kim (+7000)
- Victor Perez (+7000)
- Stephan Jaeger (+7000)
- Kevin Roy (+7000)
- Ryo Hisatsune (+7500)
- Eric Cole (+7500)
- Rico Hoey (+7500)
- Emiliano Grillo (+7500)
- Matt McCarty (+7500)
- Patrick Rodgers (+7500)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+7500)
- Lee Hodges (+7500)
- All other players priced at +8000 or higher
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