Fortinet Championship Betting Picks and Predictions

The PGA Tour is in Napa, California, for the Fortinet Championship. OddsChecker's golf handicapper and expert Andy Lack gives us his best picks for the 2023 Fortinet Championship.

Sahith Theegala plays a shot from the eighth tee during the second round of the BMW Championship.
(Image credit: Getty Images)

After the shortest off-season in sports, golf is back! While many turn their attention to football, the golf world centers around beautiful Napa, California for the opener of the 2023-2024 PGA Tour season. While many of the world’s best are still enjoying the layoff, two American Ryder Cup team members in Justin Thomas and Max Homa headline the field at the Fortinet Championship. Of course, Homa is also the two-time defending champion at this event, and he enters this week with far less questions than the aforementioned Thomas. 

After missing the FedEx Cup playoffs for the first time in his career, yet still being gifted a Ryder Cup spot for reasons unbeknownst to me, all eyes will be on the two-time major champion this week. A talented group of up and comers such as Sahith Theegala, Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Davis, and Eric Cole will also look to get their new season started off on the right foot. While all finished last year in impressive fashion, Homa remains the man to beat.

Before we get into our picks for the Fortinet Championship, make sure to take a moment to check out these awesome sports betting offers for this week. We have teamed up with OddsChecker to ensure that you claim $1000s in first-bet bonuses so that you can bet on these 2023 Fortinet Championship selections with more confidence this week.

Fortinet Championship: Course Preview

Silverado Country Club – The North Course

Silverado Country Club has been the host course of this event since 2015. The Robert Trent Jones design generally plays as one of the easier courses on Tour, yet there has been a bit more pushback over the last two years due to some firmer conditions. Last year, Silverado ranked 23rd out of 40 courses in scoring average, but in 2021, it played as the fourth easiest course on Tour. Historically, it has never ranked harder than Tour average in difficulty, which is largely due to its less-than-imposing length and four par fives. Silverado's greatest pushback is its incredibly narrow fairways and challenging green-side surrounds. Still, its lack of length yields a ton of short irons for the world's best. All of its par fives are reachable in two shots, and nine of the par fours measure between 360 and 450 yards. 

Only three of the 10 par fours play to a historic scoring average of over par, and all four of the par fives play over a quarter stroke under par and rank as the four easiest holes on the course. All feature a birdie rate of over 35%. Silverado's par threes do have some bite, and the quartet historically ranks as the first, third, fourth, and ninth tough holes on the course. All four play to a historic scoring average over par. Ultimately, Silverado can aptly be summarized as a wedges-and-putting course. Its green side surrounds are trickier than they look, but so many players have a scoring club in their hands on nearly every hole that those who are missing the green consistently are likely nowhere near the first page of the leaderboard. 

It’s imperative to keep the ball out of the trees, but the fairways are so narrow that elite accuracy is actually de-valued, and distance is mitigated as well, given the fact that even the shortest of players can reach the par fives and will have a wedge in their hands on most of the par fours. Finally, it's rather meaningless to look at how a player hit the ball at the Wyndham Championship or even the BMW Championship, as enough time has passed that each player should be viewed with a clean slate. Instead, I will primarily be looking at a player's long-term baseline over the 2023 season to identify who are the safest bets from a course fit standpoint. 

Fortinet Championship Key Stats

  • Driving Accuracy Percentage
  • Recent Approach Play
  • Strokes Gained Tee to Green: Bermuda Courses

Predict the top five finishers at this week's Fortinet Championship for a chance to win this Golf Monthly x OddsChecker free-to-play golf contest.

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1.       Make your selections using the widget above - Ensure you have selected each player in your chosen finishing position e.g. Max Homa (1st), Justin Thomas (2nd), Brendon Todd (3rd), and so on.

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Fortinet Championship: Outright Winner

Sahith Theegala (+1800) (Bet $100 to collect $1,900) BetMGM has the best odds for Sahith Theegala

The former Haskins Award winner remains one of the best players on the PGA Tour without an elusive victory, but Silverado feels the perfect spot for Sahith Theegala to finally break through. The former Pepperdine star already has a 14th and a sixth in two of his three appearances at the Robert Trent Jones Design, and he has been not shy to admit that he plays some of his best golf on the West Coast. Theegala remains a prolific birdie maker, an excellent Bent/Poa, and has the short-game expertise to navigate these tricky greenside surrounds as well. I love that he finished the season with momentum as well. After a shaky summer, Theegala put together back-to-back top-15 finishes against elite fields in the FedEx Cup playoffs, and the ball-striking looked particularly strong at Olympia Fields. Theegala’s biggest weakness is his inaccuracy off the tee, but Silverado is a golf course where even the most accurate drivers lose a lot of their advantage. If Theegala can at least keep the ball on the planet this week, he stands an excellent chance to collect his first PGA Tour victory.

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Sahith Theegala's Outright Odds Comparison via OddsChecker
SportsbookOddsPayout ($100 Wager)

As you can see, it is imperative that you compare the Fortinet Championship odds at OddsChecker.

Sahith Theegala is now best-priced at +1800 at BetMGM, +1600 at DraftKings and FanDuel, and +1400 at Bet365, a stark $200 to $400 difference in returns. Make sure to pick the best sportsbook for your Sahith Theegala pick with OddsChecker.

Stephan Jaeger (+2500) (Bet $100 to collect $2,600) For the best Stephan Jaeger odds head to BetMGM

Stephan Jaeger is a player I have highlighted in this column often, and I continue to believe that he is on the precipice of a breakthrough. While the German has yet to really pop at Silverado, he has at least seen the course on multiple occasions and put together a couple of middling finishes. He is a much better player now than he was at even this time last year. The 34-year-old ranks top-25 in this field in overall off-the-tee play, overall approach play, overall around-the-green play, birdies or better gained, opportunities gained, par five scoring, and good drive percentage. Outside of Max Homa, Jaeger is obviously the most well-rounded player in this field from a statistical standpoint. Jaeger finished the year with 13 straight-made cuts and six top-35 finishes in a row. He possesses an incredibly high floor due to his ball striking, and the putter remains the only mild concern. This is one of the first events that Jaeger has played on Tour where he is truly one of the class of the field, and I expect him to capitalize firmly. 

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Stephan Jaeger's Outright Odds Comparison via OddsChecker
SportsbookOddsPayout ($100 Wager)

Once again, OddsChecker odds comparison tool comes to the fore, as there is a difference of $300 in returns when you bet $100 on Stephan Jaeger at BetMGM rather than DraftKings, FanDuel, and Bet365.

Andy Lack

A PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York, Andy Lack has contributed to sites such as Golf Digest, GolfWRX, OddsChecker Rotoballer, the Score, and now Golf Monthly. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. When he’s not writing, Andy can likely be found somewhere on a golf course pursuing his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur.