2023 John Deere Classic Betting Picks and Predictions

The John Deere Classic has been a staple on the PGA Tour since 1971. Formerly known as the "Quad Cities Open," it was first a satellite event, before becoming an official Tour event in 1972. John Deere took over as the title sponsor in 1999, and the tournament has been hosted at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, since then as well. The event has some nice history to it, as the 2013 edition saw Jordan Spieth, two weeks shy of his 20th birthday, become the first teenager to win on the PGA Tour since 1931. Since the introduction of the Open Qualifying Series, the John Deere is the final chance for a player not already exempt to earn entry into the Open Championship if he finishes top-five. 

While this is often a week that many of the top names take off, Ryder Cup hopefuls such as Denny McCarthy, Cameron Young, and Russell Henley will be in attendance, who all have some serious work to do if they want to be considered by U.S. captain, Zach Johnson. We will also see young up and comers such as Ludvig Aberg hopefully bolster his chances for a European bid and continue an impressive start to his PGA Tour career. Former champions such as J.T. Poston, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, Michael Kim, Ryan Moore, and Zach Johnson will also be returning to the Quad Cities.

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John Deere Classic: Course Preview

TPC Deere Run

TPC Deere Run was designed in 1999 by D.A. Weibring and has been the host course of the John Deere Classic since its inception. Playing as a par 71, tipping out to just 7,238 yards on the scorecard, and featuring generous fairways and receptive Bent-grass greens, TPC Deere Run annually plays as one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour schedule. Two thirds of all its holes historically play under par, and nearly 50% of its holes feature over a 20% birdie rate. We should not expect an event all that dissimilar from what we saw last week at the Rocket Mortgage, as both TPC Deere Run and Detroit Golf Club ask a very similar question. Wedge play and putting is once again the name of the game this week, as TPC Deere Run features a large plurality of approach shots between 100 and 150 yards. 

The Weibring design is one of the statistically easiest courses from a ball-striking standpoint, ranking 33rd out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and 27th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty. Elite tee to green players will have more trouble on this course separating from moderate tee to green players than they do at longer and harder courses which do a better job of exposing a player’s ball-striking weakness. While at courses such as Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, Riviera, and Muirfield Village, players are able to separate themselves with their ball-striking, at TPC Deere Run, players are able to separate themselves with their wedges and putting. 

I will say that TPC Deere Run does feature some very tricky greenside surrounds, as it ranks 11th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty. Still, players that are relying too much on their short game are unlikely to be anywhere near the top of the leaderboard, as TPC Deere Run features some of the easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour. Ultimately, I will be looking for elite wedge players who have shown an ability to catch fire with the flat-stick and have a proven track record of performance in easier scoring conditions. 

John Deere Classic Key Stats

• Long-term Proximity 100-150 yards
• Opportunities Gained
• Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions

John Deere Classic: Outright Winner

Denny McCarthy (+1600) (Bet $100 to collect $1,700) Go to FanDuel for the best Denny McCarthy odds

Denny McCarthy appears to be on the precipice of something special, and it's undeniable that the 30-year-old has found an extra gear this season. McCarthy has made 14 of 17 cuts this season, with 10 top-30 finishes and four top-10s, including a runner-up at the Memorial, an eighth at the Wells Fargo, and a seventh at the Travelers, which are all elevated events. Now he travels to a course where he is easily one of the premier players, on a golf course that he finished sixth at last year while gaining over 6.5 strokes ball-striking. 

McCarthy checks all the boxes that I am looking for this week from a statistical standpoint. He’s one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in the field, ranking sixth in good drive percentage. His irons have been hot, his short game and putting are elite, and he ranks third in this field in birdies or better gained. As we saw with Rickie Fowler last week at the Rocket Mortgage, sometimes, when a player in great form takes on an extremely weak field, it’s best not to overthink it.

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Keith Mitchell (+3300) (Bet $100 to collect $3,400) Head to BetMGM for the best Keith Mitchell odds

Keith Mitchell is a player I have been extremely high on since the start of the season, and while he has underwhelmed my lofty expectations, he is still in a prime position to pick up his first PGA Tour victory. Mitchell is coming off a 20th at the U.S. Open, where he gained over five strokes off the tee and six strokes with the flat-stick. While I am always concerned about the University of Georgia product’s iron play, we’ve seen Dylan Frittelli win this event with powerful driving and elite putting while losing strokes on approach. That is the formula this week for Mitchell, who ranks first in this field in recent off-the-tee play, and 12th in Bent-grass putting. 

While the irons are never his strength, Mitchell is still a well-above-average long-term wedge player, which will certainly come in handy this week. His expertise off the tee and on the greens should take a ton of pressure off his iron play, and TPC Deere Run remains one of the easiest approach courses on the PGA Tour. I have zero concerns about Mitchell’s ability to thrive in Bent-grass birdie-fests, as along with a previous seventh-place finish at TPC Deere Run, he also boasts top-sevens at TPC River Highlands and TPC Twin Cities. I have little doubt that Mitchell will find his way into the mix on Sunday in the Quad Cities.

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