Golf Monthly betting guide

published 21 March 2007

WGC CA CHAMPIONSHIP

In another positive change to the early season schedule, this week sees the second World Golf Championship of the year. Previously, this event was sponsored by Amex and held in the autumn on a variety of courses. This year?s venue is one we know well, the "Blue Monster" at Doral, a course that has hosted a variously sponsored PGA Tour event for decades.

Despite the change of sponsor and venue, the central characteristic of this World Golf Championship event looks likely to remain - namely a course that produces low-scoring. The title of "Blue Monster" was more appropriate in the 1980s and 1990s, but it has been tamed by the advances in technology since. Fast, grainy greens are the main defence against low scoring so if rain arrives to soften them, (and there is some forecast), this could be a birdie-fest and long-hitters? paradise.

However it should also be added, especially with the rough well-grown, that the shorter-hitters can overcome this handicap with quality iron-play on what is ultimately a "second-shot" course. Players like Jim Furyk, Scott Verplank, Craig Parry and Jose-Maria Olazabal have all done well here in recent years.

Tiger is out to 5/2, an incredible price seeing as he?d won his previous eight PGA Tour stroke play events - a run which included two Major championships and two WGC events. Odds like this seem very short at first glance, and there is always much to be said for waiting in the hope of better odds in-running, but it does seem that there are certain courses (St Andrews, Firestone, The Grove for instance) that suit him so much that the

Of the younger stars, Paul Casey would have been interesting but for a disastrous final 27 holes from a leading position at the weekend. Henrik Stenson is at a disadvantage making his course debut. Trevor Immelman and Charles Howell have poor course records. Sergio Garcia could never be fancied for an event which required a hot putter, something that shows in his Doral record. Equally, Adam Scott and Davis Love will need a big

Despite all those question-marks surrounding the main challengers, recent results from Doral still suggest that the main challengers to Woods will be heavyweights. The most likely in my view are the South African pair, ERNIE ELS and RETIEF GOOSEN. Ernie has generally prospered in the past at Doral, winning in 2002. Goosen's last three visits have produced consistent finishes of thirth, eighth and 15th. Both have to improve on some moderate recent efforts, but then again both now have the course conditions on which to prosper. Even when they?re not at their best this pair are rarely out of the top-10, and after using a process of elimination with all the other contenders they seem very obvious candidates.

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