The Curious Case Of Jon Rahm: Is Major Slump A Trend Or An Anomaly?

Jon Rahm notched his second LIV victory of the 2026 season last Sunday in Mexico at Chapultepec. The Spaniard is yet to finish worse than fifth on the breakaway circuit through six events so far this year. He has three second places to go alongside his pair of wins in what has been an incredibly consistent display.

But after a mediocre 38th at The Masters, Rahm continues to struggle to extrapolate his LIV success into the Majors. From a macro sense, Rahm’s legacy will only be centred around his performance at the four big events, as opposed to his play in the LIV Golf League.

The 31-year-old already has two Majors to his name, the 2021 US Open and 2023 Masters, but his projected ceiling calls for that total to increase, especially while Rahm is in the prime of his career.

Early Major Success

Rahm won his first Major title at the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines, where he shot a four-under-par 67 in the final round to win by one stroke. The Spaniard birdied the final two holes by draining clutch putts of 25 and 18 feet on the South Course to oust Louis Oosthuizen.

In that post-COVID era, Scottie Scheffler had yet to truly burst onto the scene and become the player he is now, and Rory McIlroy was not the same golfer he was earlier in his career. The door was open for Rahm to elevate himself as one of the generational talents of the current game. In 2021, Rahm's worst finish in a Major was a T8th at the PGA Championship.

However, surprisingly, Rahm failed to continue his impressive form and didn't finish inside the top-10 at any of the Majors in 2022.

He bounced back in a big way by claiming a Green Jacket and The Masters at the start of 2023. Brooks Koepka had held the 54-hole lead by two over Rahm, but a final round 75 from the American gifted the title to Rahm to become the fourth Spaniard to earn a Green Jacket and place himself amongst the golfing greats.

PGA Tour To LIV Transition

In December of 2023, Rahm announced that he was leaving the PGA Tour to join the PIF-backed circuit. The World No.3 at the time had previously dismissed rumors that he was making the switch before a sudden U-turn.

At the time, it was LIV's biggest signing, and perhaps Rahm believed his decision would catalyze an agreement between the PGA and LIV.

Rahm's performance in the Majors once he joined LIV took a noticeable downturn in 2024 despite his consistent finishes on the breakaway team tour.

A T45th at his title defence at The Masters was followed by a missed cut at the PGA Championship at Valhalla. That ended his streak of 18 consecutive weekends in Major Championships.

Rahm was then forced to withdraw from the US Open at Pinehurst due to a toe injury, before rounding off his Major season with a non-competitive seventh-place at The Open, due to a final round 68, to finish eight shots back of eventual winner Xander Schauffele.

The Significance of LIV Victories

Rahm elongated his dip into 2025 by not winning for the entire year. The former World No.1 did claim two top-10s in the Majors, but was unable to locate the winners' circle. This was despite him finishing inside the top-11 at all 13 LIV events last year, spotlighting his profound consistency without getting over the line.

The Arizona resident was briefly in contention at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, tied with Scheffler through 11 holes in the final round. But Rahm played the infamous 'Green Mile' in five over par to plummet down the leaderboard, ending up in a tie for eighth at four-under and seven off the winning score.

Rahm has continued to dominate the LIV tournaments so far this season and is back to winning ways thanks to victories in Hong Kong - his first triumph in 18 months - and, more recently, Mexico City. Alongside that, he has three runner-up finishes and a solo fifth on the circuit, underlining his ability to show up at every single event.

But this is perhaps more reflective of LIV's smaller fields and lack of depth as opposed to Rahm outplaying his peers every time he tees it up. Alongside Bryson DeChambeau, the Spaniard is purportedly the league's main star and is expected to be at the top of the leaderboards.

But in fairness to Rahm, he has doubled his LIV win total through just six events. The most recent success at Chapultepec was due to a seven-under par final round to win by six shots and also included an eagle on the par-four third. Except he was still unable to translate this good form into a run at The Masters earlier this month.

A six-over-par 78 on Thursday put Rahm behind the eight ball, largely down to a dismal display on the tricky Augusta greens. He battled to make the cut on the number and finish just inside the top-40, but was negative strokes gained putting across the four days. For Rahm to rewrite his narrative, he has to at least contend on a Major Championship Sunday, because those are the weeks that matter more than any number of LIV victories.

The 2027 Ryder Cup Dilemma

Another aspect of the current Rahm discourse is that his status for the 2027 Ryder Cup at Adare Manor is in jeopardy.

Rahm is in a long-running dispute with the DP World Tour regarding unpaid fines for competing on LIV while still being a member of the European Tour. Ryder Cup teammate Tyrell Hatton was granted a conditional release by the DP World Tour to play on LIV but retained his membership.

However, Rahm refused these conditions which stipulate he must play in a certain number of DP World Tour events during the season and is instead pursuing an appeal against the fines. This equates to a potential European Ryder Cup team without one of their strongest players.

The 2027 edition at Adare Manor is still just under 18 months away, but if the situation between Rahm and the DP World Tour is not settled, then he risks being ineligible to qualify or be picked by returning captain Luke Donald.

The four-time Ryder Cupper has accrued 10.5 career points in the showpiece event and has been an integral component of three winning teams. At each of the last three head-to-heads against the USA, the Spaniard has won at least three points out of a maximum of five to engineer back-to-back victories for Team Europe, the second of which was on away soil.

A Ryder Cup without Rahm would lack his customary fire and grit that Europe has fed off of in years past, making it crucial that Rahm sources a compromise with the DP World Tour ahead of Ireland next September.

A Chance To Change The Narrative in 2026

While Rahm is held in high regard by the golfing world, his lacklustre Major performances are starting to creep through the cracks. One way to extinguish the storyline is to execute a commanding win at one of the remaining three big events this year. But, if past results are anything to go by, it won't be easy.

In May, the PGA Championship heads to Aronimink for the first time since 1962. The Pennsylvania golf course did host the BMW Championship in 2018, where Rahm finished in a tie for 24th.

The US Open is being held at Shinnecock Hills, with the venue last hosting the Championship eight years ago. That week, Rahm missed the cut at the notoriously difficult Long Island layout, so there is a chance for redemption this year.

Lastly, The Open Championship returns to the north-west coast of England at Royal Birkdale. Jordan Spieth was victorious on the links in 2017, while Rahm, in just his second Open start, was T44th at three-over par for the week.

The Other Side Of The Coin

Because of Rahm's stellar play on LIV, The Masters could also be perceived as a minor road bump instead of a growing trend.

After last week's win in Mexico amid the recent addition of OWGR points on LIV, Rahm is back up to 20th in the world rankings. Data Golf also has the 31-year-old ranked second - above McIlroy and only below Scheffler - in their own rankings, which incorporates strength of field among other key metrics.

This would suggest that Rahm is playing as well as anyone right now and is overdue to perform well at a Major, particularly if his dominance on LIV continues.

With LIV's financial future uncertain, this season would be the perfect time for Rahm to rejoin the Major winners' circle, stamping his name as one of the utmost forces in the sport for years to come, challenging the current bipolar force of McIlroy and Scheffler.

Do you think Jon Rahm will win a Major this year? Let us know in the comments section below...