The Open Championship Sleeper Betting Picks: High-Priced Big Names Tipped To Contend At Birkdale
Here's who Golf Monthly's tour experts have picked out to be a surprise contender at Royal Birkdale as we hunt for any value on offer in the final men's Major
The year's final men's Major is here and everyone involved at Royal Birkdale is desperate to close the season with the Claret Jug in their trophy cabinet.
Scottie Scheffler, despite an extremely rare missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open last week, remains the championship's betting favorite - although only one of Golf Monthly's betting panel has opted to back the four-time Major winner in 2026.
Otherwise, many of the most fancied names to reign supreme on the links layout have fairly short figures beside their names. Players like Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and Jon Rahm lead the way.
But you're here because you're searching for a little more value, right? What about those players who certainly have the ability on their day?
Below, we've picked out two names who hold odds of over +3000 (30/1) that we believe possess all the right ingredients to be labeled a sleeper pick.
Check out who they are and let us know who you're backing to win The Open in 2026 in the comments box below...
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The Open Sleeper Picks 2026
I believe the 2026 Open champion will be the man who chips and putts the best (while also hitting it well from tee-to-green), and a man who fits the bill is Cameron Smith.
The Australian is not known for his long-game prowess but it has improved since teaming up with Claude Harmon this year, evidenced by his T7th finish at the PGA Championship.
On his day nobody can match him around the greens, so I can easily see him picking up a second Claret Jug.
He narrowly missed the cut at the US Open in his last start, and he has had plenty of time to prepare for Royal Birkdale. Don't be surprised to see him challenging come Sunday.
Eugenio Chacarra (+12500 To Win)
The talented Spaniard has won twice on the DP World Tour this year to take his professional wins tally to five, including one LIV Golf triumph, an Asian Tour title and another DP World Tour win last year.
He was the World No.2 amateur before joining LIV, so he has been a classy player for a long time, and I just have a feeling he is finally ready to have a very big week in only his third Major start and first ever Open.
Will he win it? Probably not, but I can definitely see him finishing inside the top-10. He's in fantastic form, has plenty of experience now and has shown he can handle pressure well.
I found choosing an outsider exceptionally difficult this week, but I've landed on someone who is in the best possible form and I just hope he can make it through to the weekend if nothing else.
Tom Kim looked superb in winning the Scottish Open last week with exemplary iron play the hallmark of his success. Royal Birkdale is a plotter's golf course, and that's exactly what Kim can do.
He putted pretty well too at The Renaissance Club, so I'm hoping he doesn't suffer an emotional crash out following his win and he can notch another high finish.
Alex Fitzpatrick (+8000 To Win)
To be honest, I think the price Fitzpatrick is currently at, according to many bookmakers, is nothing short of shocking.
He's playing the best golf of his career this summer and he's already shown that he's capable of going low at an Open - highlighted by that T17th result on debut in 2023.
A superb ball-striker who loves links golf, I can see the younger Fitzpatrick posting another top-20 (if not a top-10) and continuing what has been a genuinely transformational summer in terms of his career.
A heart over head selection maybe, as Jordan Spieth has won just twice since his thrilling Open victory here at Birkdale in 2017, and maybe it’s watching that shot from the driving range or the “go get that” after draining that eagle putt, but I just can’t help myself!
Only class players win at Birkdale and Spieth has oodles of that, he just doesn’t have any kind of form and quite frankly he’s looked a bit defeated of late. And yet...
He’s talking a good game this week, and feels results haven’t matched his overall game, and if he can find some juice from returning to the Southport links then who knows. He’s had two top 20s in Majors this year and he’s never missed a cut at the Open, with two top 10s and two top 25s in his last five.
At the Open only five players have a better scoring average over the last five years, so he can obviously cope with links golf even when not on form. And one thing’s for sure, watching Spieth at the Open is rarely boring.
Sleepers are supposed to be something out of the ordinary, under the radar, and Brooks Koepka has had a torrid time of late, but there is a glimmer of hope with that opening 66 he shot at the Scottish Open before missing the cut.
Generally his iron play has been stellar, and if he can find fairways then that will be a huge asset at Birkdale – and before this current slump he’s in he felt he was back to his very best form.
His best form saw him record four top 10s in five Opens while he was hoovering up five Majors – a run which included finishing sixth at Birkdale in 2017.
Something like that could see a rare Claret Jug challenge.
His game is made for links golf, but it still comes as a surprise when you see Thomas' results in Open Championships, with his best finish being a T11th in 2019.
For 2026, though, it feels different and, prior to his T50th result at the Genesis Scottish Open last week, the two-time Major winner had seven straight top 25 finishes, including a T4th at the PGA Championship.
In his last two Open appearances, he produced T31st and T34th results, indicating to me that he is starting to find his feet on the links, so I'm hoping he'll re-find his form at a good price.
Alex Fitzpatrick (+4000 To Win)
Aside from missing the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open last week, Fitzpatrick has been in great form of late, highlighted by four top 10 finishes in PGA Tour Signature Events, as well as his Zurich Classic of New Orleans victory alongside his brother, Matt.
He might not have the most Open Championship experience, but in his lone appearance he finished T17th, which came in 2023.
The dry conditions should suit him and, with home support on his side, I see Fitzpatrick having another strong week.
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