In stark contrast to The Masters, the 2024 PGA Championship, on paper at least, is wide open.
Heading into the first men’s Major of the year at Augusta National, it felt almost preordained that Scottie Scheffler was going to be slipping into a second Green Jacket come Sunday evening.
Not just because he arrived as the best player in the world by a distance, but because so many of the big names were out of form.
The same cannot be said ahead of the 106th edition of the PGA Championship. The battle for the Wanamaker Trophy is set to be one of the most thrilling in the tournament’s history, with the likes of Rory McIlroy and defending champion Brooks Koepka fresh off victories.
With conditions to be mixed and plenty of rain expected across the week, the course is going to play long.
That will suit a particular group of players: those who drive the ball well and those who are among the best on approach shots from distance. With that in mind, here are my picks for the 2024 PGA Championship.
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
No surprises here. Not picking the World No.1 is just negligence at this point. His odds might be short but not since Tiger Woods has a player felt like more of a banker.
Scheffler leads on the PGA Tour this season for strokes gained on approach shots across the board and is first from 150-175 yards and in the top 15 from 175-200 yards, the range that is set to be pivotal to success.
He also ranks first off the tee, meaning it is likely to come down to his putting once again.
Rory McIlroy (7/1)
The trap has been fallen into again. There is, however, more evidence behind the McIlroy bet this week than many of those in the past decade that have failed to yield success in the sport's four showpiece events.
The Northern Irishman won his most recent Major at Valhalla in 2014, so the omens are good, and he is also coming in off the back of a stunning victory at Quail Hollow last week.
In lifting his fourth Wells Fargo Championship, McIlroy seemed back to his devastating best, dominating the Charlotte layout with his driver and reducing brutal par 4s to their knees. He has found a groove in his swing and looks free once again.
We’ve been here before, of course, but Valhalla is a superb course fit for he 35-year-old and it just feels like he’s going to go challenge.
Ludvig Aberg (18/1)
Like Scheffler and McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg’s tee-to-green game is his strength. There is a question mark over his fitness after the Swede withdrew from the Wells Fargo with a knee injury, but assuming he is over that issue, there is no reason to think he won’t continue his remarkable start to pro life.
On approach shots from the short grass between 175 and 225 yards, Aberg is in the top 10 for the best average score in relation to par, while his driving proficiency regularly puts him in position to attack.
Wyndham Clark (40/1)
The theme continues with Wyndham Clark, whose odds are remarkably long given his results over the last 12 months. He missed the cut at The Masters in tricky conditions (and in his Augusta debut), but he also has two runner-up finishes and a T3 in his last six starts.
Clark’s chipping and putting let him down at Quail Hollow last week but assuming he sharpens that up at Valhalla and his long game continues to shine, he could very well thrust himself into contention.
Justin Thomas (50/1)
After a dismal 2023, Justin Thomas is on an upward trajectory once again. He has been working hard at his game and it is starting to pay off, as evidenced by his place among the top 15 ball-strikers on the PGA Tour this season.
The 31-year-old missed the cut at Augusta after an epic late collapse to his second round, but he bounced back with a top five at the RBC Heritage and a T21 at Quail Hollow. At both events, he gained strokes on the field in every category, including his putting, which has been a real weakness of late.
It is also a home tournament for the American who grew up in Louisville. Whether that is a help or a hindrance remains to be seen but it could be the spark he needs to hit top form once again and claim a third PGA Championship. Or at least place.
PGA Championship favorites and odds:
- 9/2 - Scottie Scheffler
- 17/2 - Rory McIlroy
- 16/1 - Brooks Koepka
- 18/1 - Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele
- 20/1 - Jon Rahm
- 28/1 - Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau
- 33/1 - Max Homa
- 40/1 - Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Smith, Wyndham Clark, Viktor Hovland, Justin Thomas, Joaquin Niemann
- 45/1 - Cameron Young, Tommy Fleetwood
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