2023 Mexico Open Betting Picks and Predictions

The Mexico Open is the first national open on the 2023 schedule, and a very new event on the PGA Tour. First played 79 years ago in 1944 at the Club de Golf Chapultepec, the Mexico Open was a PGA Tour Latinoamerica event until last year, where it became an official event on the PGA Tour. The Mexico Open now offers a purse of 7.7 million dollars, with 500 FedEx Cup points up for grabs as well. 

It was held last year at Vidanta Vallarta, a Greg Norman course in Vallarta, Mexico that stretches to nearly 7,500 yards on the scorecard. Recent Masters champion Jon Rahm won the inaugural Tour event last year at 17 under par by one stroke over Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, and Brandon Wu. Rahm will graciously be back to defend his title, and although this is a natural rest week for many of the game’s top players, Wyndham Clark, Gary Woodland, and Tony Finau, amongst others will all look to challenge the Spaniard in his title defense.

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Mexico Open: Course Preview

Vidanta Vallarta

Vidanta Vallarta is like many resort courses on the PGA Tour, but it has certainly been beefed up to provide some resistance to par. The Greg Norman design plays as a Par 73 for resort guests, but was changed to a par 71 for this event, with the fourth hole now playing as a 520 yard par four, and the 16th hole now playing as a 505 yard par four. Originally 7,287 yards on the scorecard for resort guests, Vidanta was tipped out to 7,457 yards last year. Despite the notable lengthening, Vidanta still played as the 11th easiest course on the PGA Tour last year. Distance, as well as the potential for wind is really the greatest defense that Vidanta has. Featuring 40-yard-wide fairways, Vidanta is one of the most wide open, driver heavy, and distance biased courses on the PGA Tour.

The rough is barely a concern, and while water comes into play often, there is still a ton of room for players to navigate off the tee and on their approach shots. The game plan at Vidanta is fairly simple, hit the ball as long as possible off the tee, and be able to control your long irons. The Paspalum greens are extremely slow, flat, and feature very little undulation. The greenside surrounds are incredibly benign as well. All things considered, it should not come as a surprise that bombers and elite long iron players such as Jon Rahm, Kurt Kitayama, Tony Finau, and Cameron Champ all found themselves in contention last year. This year, I will primarily be looking for players that similarly rate out highly in driving distance and long iron play, as well as have a history of success on easy, slow, tropical, Paspalum golf courses.

Mexico Open Key Stats

• Proximity 200 yards plus
• Driving Distance
• Birdies or Better Gained

Mexico Open: Outright Winner

Wyndham Clark (+2100) (Bet $100 to collect $2,200) Head to FanDuel to get the best Wyndham Clark odds

Wyndham Clark is in the midst of a career year on the PGA Tour, and he now travels to a course that fits his game to a tee. The 29-year-old is one of only four players in this field to rank top-10 in both driving distance and long iron proximity, the two most important skill sets at Vidanta Vallarta. He also ranks third in this entire field in birdies or better gained and first in par five scoring, which I also believe will come in handy at a wide-open resort course with four three-shotters. 

Clark is coming off a third-place finish at the Zurich Classic, where he carried the brunt of the burden alongside Beau Hossler. Prior to that, he finished sixth at the Corales Punta Cana, another long, Paspalum resort course where birdies are the name of the game. I wish there was more value in his outright number, but sometimes when all the pieces fit together so perfectly, it’s important not to over-think it.

Gary Woodland (+3000) Bet $100 to collect $3,100 Go to Pointsbet for the best Gary Woodland odds

Gary Woodland has had a frustrating existence on the PGA Tour since winning the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach back in 2019. With that being said, he’s playing some of the best golf of his career, and from a ball-striking standpoint, Woodland has proven that he’s incredibly close to crossing the finish line. The 38-year-old is coming off a 31st at the Heritage, where he gained over two strokes both off the tee and on approach. What is even more encouraging is that he gained four strokes putting, which has been the missing piece for Woodland all season. 

The Kansas native has been absolutely flushing it all season, gaining over four strokes ball-striking in four straight starts, and that is not including the 12.5 strokes ball-striking that he gained at the Genesis Invitational, which had one of the strongest fields of the season. Woodland has emerged as one of the most reliable drivers of the ball in the world, gaining over a stroke off the tee in every single start this season. The upside with the irons is there, and now he finally gets to a golf course that accentuates long iron play, a skill in which Woodland ranks first in this entire field. Most importantly, the putter appears to be finally coming around. Similar to Clark, I wish there was more value in his outright number, but in such a weak field, it’s hard to envision a more perfect scenario for the trending Woodland.