2023 LIV Golf Valderrama Betting Picks and Predictions

We are back with another LIV Golf event. This time the Tour returns to Europe as Real Club Valderrama plays host on this Tour for the first time.

Valderrama is one of the most famous courses in all of golf, and the DP World Tour would have been sad to see it removed from their schedule this year. Still, the DP World Tour's loss is LIV Golf's gain, and now the European contingent will look to rise to the top at this week's event.

Cam Smith was the best LIV Golfer at the U.S. Open as he finished in 4th, and he was joined by Dustin Johnson (T10) inside the top 10. Two more LIV golfers finished inside the top 20 at the U.S. Open as Brooks Koepka (T17) and Bryson DeChambeau (T20) both finished toward the top of the leaderboard as well.

Will these major contenders be ready to win again this week in Spain, or will those that are well-rested following a month-long break be the ones to target?

Let's look at what is required to succeed at LIV Golf Valderrama, and pick out our favorite plays.

Before we get into our picks for the LIV Golf Valderrama event, make sure to take a moment to check out these outstanding new customer offers. With these sportsbook promotions, you can secure $350 in guaranteed winnings plus $1000+ in first bet cover.

2023 LIV Golf Winners

Here are the winners on the 2023 LIV Golf Tour this season:

Individual Winners

LIV Golf Mayakoba - Charles Howell III

LIV Golf Oklahoma - Danny Lee

LIV Golf Orlando - Brooks Koepka

LIV Golf Adelaide - Talor Gooch

LIV Golf Singapore - Talor Gooch

LIV Golf Tulsa - Dustin Johnson

LIV Golf Washington DC - Harold Varner III

Team Winners

LIV Golf Mayakoba - Crushers GC

LIV Golf Oklahoma - Fireballs GC

LIV Golf Orlando - Torque GC

LIV Golf Adelaide - 4 Aces GC

LIV Golf Singapore - RangeGoats GC

LIV Golf Tulsa - Stingers GC

LIV Golf Washington DC - Torque GC

Before LIV went on a break either side of the U.S. Open, Team Torque GC, led by Joaquin Niemann, became the first team this season to get to two wins. This was despite Harold Varner winning the individual title.

LIV Golf Valderrama Course Preview

• Par 71
• 7,010 Yards

Real Club Valderrama is going to be an entirely different prospect to what we are used to on LIV Golf so far, as it is more of a classic test, with a real European feel. 

Valderrama has long been one of the most revered courses on the DP World Tour, and it is well known for providing one of the toughest tests of the season.

Adrian Otaegui won at -19 on the DP World Tour last season, but he won by six strokes, and that sort of score is unusual. Something between Matt Fitzpatrick's winning score of -6 in 2021, and Sergio Garcia's -12 in 2018 looks like a good target.

With narrow fairways, and small greens, all outlined by beautiful cork trees, Valderrama is one of the most aesthetically pleasing courses you will see on LIV, and it should provide a strong test.

Look for players that can find fairways and greens at a high rate, plus those that can add a great around-the-green game to that mix as well.

LIV Golf Valderrama Key Stats

• Driving Accuracy - Hitting these small greens at Valderrama is already a tough enough proposition, but trying to do so from the rough can be particularly troublesome. You will want to make sure you are hitting the fairways here, to contend at Valderrama. 8 of the last 9 winners at Valderrama on the DP World Tour, ranked inside the top-18 for Driving Accuracy the week they won. Matt Fitzpatrick was the exception last year.
• Scrambling - Missing greens is inevitable at Valderrama and it is those with the tidiest short games that will be able to protect their scores here. With this in mind, having knowledge of how to play these shots will be key, so look to the experienced Europeans that know this course well.

LIV Golf Valderrama Picks and Predictions: Outright Winner

Sergio Garcia +1400 (Bet $100 to collect $1500) The best odds for this Sergio Garcia pick are at Bet365

This might just be the easiest bet in golf this week, as Sergio Garcia returns to his favorite course.

The Spaniard has won three times on this golf course and has won seven titles overall in Spain, proving that he not only loves this course but playing in his homeland as well. 

Garcia would have been a big factor in securing this course for the 2023 LIV Golf season, and he will be keen to prove his worth with a win this week.

In addition to his three wins here, Garcia is also a three-time runner-up at this course since 2003. In 12 starts here since 2003, Garcia has three wins, three 2nds, a 3rd, a 4th, and three more top 10s. Just once has Garcia played at this course on the DP World Tour and finished outside the top 10 since 2003, and that was when he was 34th in 2007.

Not only does Garcia love this course, but the Spaniard is also in fine form, coming off a T27 finish at the U.S. Open, where his ball striking was in fine fettle. Garcia ranked 17th in Driving Accuracy at LACC, hitting 75.0% of fairways and that should serve him well here.

In his last start at LIV Golf Washington DC, Garcia ranked 3rd in Driving Accuracy and 7th in Greens in Regulation which was good enough to see him rank 2nd overall in Ball Striking. Over the last three months overall, Garcia ranks 10th in Ball Striking (5th in Greens in Regulation) and no one in this field knows this course as well as him.

If he is going to win this year, this is his best chance.

Branden Grace +2500 (Bet $100 to collect $2,600) The best odds for this Branden Grace are at Bet365

Talking of finding form at the right time, Branden Grace has finished 2nd in each of his last two LIV Golf starts, and that makes it three top 3 finishes on the season, adding to his 3rd at Mayakoba to kick off 2023.

Grace lost in a playoff at LIV Golf Tulsa and came right back in Washington and made his best run at a win again.

Surprisingly the South African has never played this course, opting to skip the event each year on the DP World Tour, but there is every reason to think he can contend here. 

Firstly, there has been a lot of crossover with success here, and at Doha GC, where Grace was a two-time winner of the Qatar Masters. Garcia was a great Qatar Masters player, with a win and runner-up finish under his belt, and the crossover doesn't stop there. Christiaan Bezuidenhout won here in 2019 and was 2nd in Qatar, Mike Lorenzo-Vera has been runner-up at both events, and Alvaro Quiros is a winner and two-time runner-up in Doha, and has finished runner-up here at Valderrama. Joakim Lagergren has also recently finished runner-up at both. There are plenty more examples, but that is enough to suggest players can prosper at both setups.

In addition to looking like a suitable candidate based on correlative form, Grace also ranked 1st for Scrambling and 7th for Greens in Regulation at LIV Golf Washington DC, and 4th in both departments at LIV Golf Tulsa, so two key areas of his game are in good shape.