Golf Monthly preview and betting guide November 22-25

published 21 November 2007

OMEGA MISSION HILLS WORLD CUP

For what seems like the first time in living memory England are overwhelming favourites to win a World Cup, and deservedly so. Whereas many countries, the USA being the prime example, rarely, if ever, manage to send anyone closely resembling their best players, England are represented by two men of the moment, Justin Rose and Ian Poulter. With Rose crowned European No 1 and Poulter entering the world?s top-20 after his weekend victory in Japan, they start at the very short odds of 3/1.

Of the 25 nations lining up in China, it's very hard to make a case for more than 13 of them. With bookies paying each-way for four places, and the top three eliminated for betting purposes on value grounds, there must inevitably be some each-way value around amongst the remaining 10 countries.

Best of the lot for me are the defending champions, GERMANY. Martin Kaymer and Alex Cejka replace last year?s winning pair, Langer and Siem, and at least on paper look much stronger. Kaymer is Cejka?s sixth different World Cup partner, and together they look to have the perfect blend of precocious young talent and experience. Cejka could be exactly the kind of wise counsel to harness Kaymer?s emerging talent. Both have been in excellent form either side of the Atlantic, Cejka missing just one cut on the PGA Tour since May and Kaymer doing everything except win in his rookie year.

Apparently it was asking too much of any of the 13 highest ranked Americans to represent their country in China, even though many were already there for lucrative individual tournaments until a few days ago. Nevertheless, Heath Slocum and Boo Weekley are still a decent pairing and could be very competitive if they can translate their PGA Tour form to another continent. In Weekley's case, there is much to suggest he can after he performed so well on his first trip to Scotland this summer. And Slocum finished the season strongly with two top-10s from his last three starts.

ARGENTINA have gone well in this tournament over recent years, and once again have a talented, if wildly inconsistent pairing in Ricardo Gonzalez and Andres Romero. From looking a world-beater in the late summer after winning in Germany and very nearly landing the Open, Romero has struggled badly. It's hard to make a case for him on that recent form, but let's not forget that he was also wildly inconsistent before that summer peak. Both of this pair are extremely attacking, almost to the point of recklessness. With low scoring the order of the day and two rounds of fourballs, such an attacking strategy could pay dividends.

Probably the best value of all lies with SCOTLAND, for whom 25/1 is a huge price to earn the country some consolation after their Euro 2008 heartbreak. Colin Montgomerie and Marc Warren reform the successful partnership that just missed out in second place last year. Monty played very well in the most part on his last start at Valderrama, and as one of the great ?pairs? golfers in recent times could easily return to his best in China. Warren, a talented but extremely inconsistent player who has managed to win Euro Tour events in consecutive years, seemed to flourish under Monty?s tutelage last year.

Previous years always attracted at least a couple of top-class overseas stars - Justin Rose won last year, Monty in 2001, Paul Casey has been a frequent visitor. This time though the strongest European contenders are serial Huntingdale failure Daniel Chopra, Thomas Björn and teenage sensation RORY MCLLROY. It all points to a tournament dominated by the same old faces, that know Huntingdale inside out and seem to always contend when they slip down a level from the PGA and European tours.

Though I?m not sure AARON BADDELEY is ideally suited by the accuracy test of Huntingdale, he is too overwhelmingly an obvious favourite to completely leave out of the staking plan. His form in the States has been a class apart from the rest of these, and strongly suggests at least one win from the three ?triple crown? events. Though his best Australian form has come in their Open, Badds did at least make the top-5 here last year, and also finished 9th back in 2002.

The same goes for PETER LONARD. Lonard has never been the same player outside Australia, and can be forgiven a poor finish to the season. Since missing his last three cuts, Lonard has taken a complete break from golf and now reports himself in proper competitive mode ahead of the triple crown. Another twice former Masters champion, Lonard?s consistent record at home is nothing short of magnificent. He?s made the top-10 at Huntingdale in every year since 2000 and in 14 of his last 18 Australian events.

RORY MCLLROY has slipped down the betting after relative failures in Hong Kong and Portugal that were only his 4th and 5th starts as a professional. I don?t see that as any reason to lose faith because at this stage in his career Mcllroy can?t be expected to produce the goods everywhere and week in, week out. He is still a very inexperienced putter and therefore likely to reserve his best for the courses that reward his superb long game, such as Huntingdale.

NICK FLANAGAN has already made his first breakthrough, winning his PGA Tour card after three Nationwide Tour wins in 2007. Like Mcllroy, his long game stats are outstanding. He?s one of the most likely first-time winners on the main Tour next season, and could well add a first home triumph in the meantime. I certainly don?t expect to see 40/1 about Flanagan for much longer against this level of opposition.

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