How Many Majors Will Rory McIlroy Win In 2022?

We look at whether this year might be the turning point for Rory

Rory mcIlroy and a pie chart showing votes
(Image credit: Future)

When Rory McIlroy won the PGA Championship at Valhalla it was his fourth success in his previous 15 major starts and all of those came on the back of that horror show at Augusta in 2011. The only thing left to tick off the career Grand Slam was The Masters and we’re still in the same place. There have been victories at The Players, two Tour Championships and a pair of WGCs but there have been no more major wins. He’s been close, 13 top 10s in the interim, but only one second place.

The Masters continues to flummox him, The Open continues to tease us while his US Open record is an odd one in recent years – after three straight missed cuts he’s had three straight top 10s. The PGA, his most successful major to date, has been a bit of a damp squib since Valhalla.

This year the majors visit Southern Hills (PGA), the Country Club at Brookline (US Open) before the big finale at the Old Course for The Open.

So we asked our online community if 2022 will finally be the year that Rory turns four into five, or even more, or will it be a case of more frustrations and near misses.      

Rory McIlroy PGA

(Image credit: Getty Images)

One major - 18%

He's easily as capable as anyone else in the world top 20 and he surely cant keep messing it up in the big events, eventually it'll come good over four rounds in a major. He must've tried every mental/tactical approach to majors possible over the last seven years (some of which have been the polar opposite to his previous tactical plans. Even a dud watch is right... etc etc, so yes he'll get another but who knows if its this year, pure guesswork

He knows he can win a major (because he’s done it) but could it be that it all came so naturally to him for 2-3 years, he doesn’t quite know ‘how’ he did it. And maybe it’s that pursuit trying to recreate/replicate the glory Rory days that has him chasing different methods of approach to the majors each year? Slab

I don't know enough about Southern Hills to fancy him there and we all know far too much about Rory and Augusta to suggest that will happen. So I'll go with one, at St Andrews to round off the major year in style. As amazing as Hoylake was it would be fantastic to add him to the Old Course winners. His record there is pretty nuts, other than that wonky one in 2010 and he obviously missed the last one there. He's not exactly struggling at life but I would love something really special to happen to him on the major stage. MarkT

Two majors - 4%

The masters and The open, you heard it here first! Point of note, I’ve also picked him in the last six Masters, make of this info what you will. bladeplayer

I would estimate two, with an uncertainty error of plus or minus two. Voyager EMH

Three + majors - 0%

Rory McIlroy Augusta

(Image credit: Getty Images)

No majors - 78%

So much talent and up-and-coming young players in the field, I just can't see him doing it this year. As much as I would love to see him win a major again and especially to be a major winner at the Old Course, I won't be betting on him. Hope I'm wrong! TigerBear

Of course he has a chance, but if workings are required, the most likely (probable) answer is none. His best mathematical chance is The Masters, but taking into account past performances, current ranking, other current and emerging players, it makes it very unlikely. Of the others, factoring in potential weather, possible form, other players, etc. the PGA is again the most likely one to contend at. But, as much as it pains me, I don't see it. rksquire

None. He's fallen too far behind the leading players. I hope I am horribly wrong. IanM

His best is no longer better than everyone else, he falters too often on day four, if he hasn't already blown up on day one. He will still win PGA Tour comps, will still be up there in majors but I don't see him actually winning majors this season. I will be very happy to be proved wrong. Lord Tyrion

Related post: Rory takes inspiration from Woods in bid for six-win season  

I see two comfortable top 10s without ever being that close to the win; one makes the cut but meh; and one missed cut. Beedee

He hasn't won one since the old King died, so on the balance of probabilities, none. fenwayrich

Think he'll be in contention at the least for a couple but there seems to be a growing list of players who fancy their own chances at the majors these days. I also feel he puts a little too much emphasis on Augusta at the slight detriment of the others. babylonsinger

Doesn't seem capable of stringing four rounds together in the majors. I think at Augusta he'll always carry the scar tissue of that famous meltdown and the pressure of the home fans will be too much for The Open. I also think there are players like Morikawa who have raised the bar and moved the game on. HomerJSimpson

Will he? Who knows. Can he? Yes, of course. He's won recently, he knows the courses and he's, allegedly, got his new Rory head on. He’s not chasing anyone any more and is just playing. Admittedly he's got work to do and to win any major you need to not only be playing well but you've got to have your slices of luck along the way. I think he's capable but only time will tell. Imurg

He’s 32 with a young family and 150 million in the bank. Honestly cant comprehend why he isn’t 100% fully focussed on grinding majors out. He’s in a limbo, he’s done everything less a Masters, Tiger (and Jack before him) has set the recent records on a shelf so high he'll never see them. He’s beat everyone on tour. I’m clearly not blessed with the determination of a 99th percentile athlete, but I can see where the drive and ambition could slide compared to a prodigy in his early 20s.... sweaty sock

Mark Townsend
Contributing editor

Mark has worked in golf for over 20 years having started off his journalistic life at the Press Association and BBC Sport before moving to Sky Sports where he became their golf editor on He then worked at National Club Golfer and Lady Golfer where he was the deputy editor and he has interviewed many of the leading names in the game, both male and female, ghosted columns for the likes of Robert Rock, Charley Hull and Dame Laura Davies, as well as playing the vast majority of our Top 100 GB&I courses. He loves links golf with a particular love of Royal Dornoch and Kingsbarns. He is now a freelance, also working for the PGA and Robert Rock. Loves tour golf, both men and women and he remains the long-standing owner of an horrific short game. He plays at Moortown with a handicap of 6.