Mexico Open Odds and Betting Preview

The Mexico Open starts this Thursday. Golf expert Matt MacKay breaks down the odds this week and shares his best bets for the Mexico Open.

Jon Rahm ooks over a putt on the tenth green during the Masters.
(Image credit: Getty Images)

The second annual edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta is set to get underway from Vallarta, Mexico, this week. Defending champion Jon Rahm headlines the list of notable golfers at this new event, along with Tony Finau and Wyndham Clark rounding out the top three outright betting favorites, albeit at much longer odds than the +275 the Spaniard currently possesses on most sportsbooks. 

After watching Davis Riley and Nick Hardy set a Zurich Classic record at -30-under-par during Best Ball and Alternate Ball scoring formats, the PGA Tour will head south of the border to Vallarta, Mexico for the second annual Mexico Open at Vidanta. Reigning champion Jon Rahm will attempt to defend his title, which would wind up being his fifth outright win of the 2023 season, including his recent win at Augusta National during The Masters. It’s a course that isn’t necessarily challenging, but it demands precision off-the-tee, so players with strong irons and drivers should fare well amongst the field. Finau, Brandon Wu, Alex Smalley, and Patrick Rodgers all logged T10 finishes or better in 2022, so watch out for these names when deciding which bets to wager at Vidanta. 

Let’s look at the top-ten betting odds, course layout, and a few players with the experience, skill set, and current form to secure an outright win ahead of Thursday’s opening tee times at the 2023 Mexico Open.

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Mexico Open Betting Odds

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Jon Rahm+275
Tony Finau+800
Wyndham Clark+1800
Gary Woodland+2800
Patrick Rodgers+2800
Nicolai Hojgaard+3000
Maverick McNealy+3000
Alex Noren+3500
Byeong Hun An+3500
Taylor Pendrith+4000
Beau Hossler+4000
Andrew Putnam+4500
Emiliano Grillo+4500
Alex Smalley +5000
Ben Martin+5000
Robby Shelton+5000
Stephan Jaeger+5000
Aaron Rai+5000
Garrick Higgo+5000
Brandon Wu+5500
Will Gordon+5500
S.H. Kim+6000
Matt Wallace+6500
Matt Wallace+6500
Lee Hodges+6500
Mark Hubbard+7000
MJ Daffue+7500
Luke List+8000
Lanto Griffin+8000
David Lipsky+8000
Joseph Bramlett+8000
Chez Reavie+8000
Patton Kizzire+8000
Nate Lashley+8000
Harry Hall+8000

2023 Mexico Open Betting Preview

Previous Winners

  • 2022 - Jon Rahm (-17)

Relevant Betting Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approaching the Green
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
  • Sand Save percentage
  • Greens in Regulation percentage

Course Layout

Vidanta Vallarta is a par 71 track that runs over 7,400 yards. While it just became an event on the PGA Tour schedule in 2022, this course has existed since 2015, set on the scenic shores of Mexico’s western coastline. There are a fair number of water hazards, along with deep sand bunkers, which create the most difficult for players to navigate. One less par 5 hole than the standard stock par 72 courses seen at other PGA Tour events, which means birdie opportunities won’t be nearly as abundant.

As far as the fairways and greens go, they aren’t nearly as difficult as what we’ve seen during recent events at Augusta National and Harbour Town, where the narrow fairways, lightning-fast greens, and small square footage surface areas combined to cause mayhem. Off-the-tee strokes have much more room to operate, as the fairways are wider at Vidanta, while over four dozen new sand bunkers have been added around the greens and along the fairways, punishing errant tee shots and approach shots alike. 

Top Players to Bet for Outright Mexico Open Winner

Jon Rahm (+275) (Bet $100 to collect $375) Bet365 has the best Joh Rahm odds

We’re getting terribly short odds on Jon Rahm, partially because he’s the defending champion but mostly because he’s been on fire so far in 2023. The 28-year-old Spaniard has won four events outright, including The Masters, and has seven T10 finishes in 11 events played this season. Of course, ranking first in total strokes gained explains a lot about why Rahm has been so consistently great on the golf course. With hardly any flaws, it it makes sense why the outright betting favorite has such short odds at +275, but this number could dry up quickly with a strong opening round, so it’s best to jump on his current odds ahead of competing against a less challenging field than normal. 

Patrick Rodgers (+2800) (Bet $100 to collect $2,900) Head to Pointsbet to get the best Patrick Rodgers odds

Now we’re hitting on good value. Patrick Rodgers has quietly logged three T10 finishes across 18 events this season, including a fifth-place finish at Valero and a T19 finish at RBC Heritage most recently. There are quite a few missed cuts (7) to account for, which is why Rodgers is sitting at 28/1 for his outright odds, but he hit -5-under-par in two of his four rounds at Vidanta in 2022. Rodgers specializes with his irons, ranked 33rd in total strokes gained, including 24th around the green, so if he can keep his driver accurate enough, combined with some good swings off of the tee box, he could wind up sitting atop the leaderboard once Sunday’s final round is underway. At 28/1, it’s worth investing in Rodgers’ upside.

Alex Smalley (+5000) (Bet $100 to collect $5,100) Head over to DraftKings to get the best Alex Smalley odds

Alex Smalley had a fantastic showing at Vidanta last year, going -3-under-par or lower in three of his four rounds, climbing into a T6 finish (-14) alongside Aaron Wise, Cameron Champ, and David Lipsky. The 26-year-old American hasn’t had a lot of production to get excited about in 2023; however, he’s ranked inside of the top-12 for approach shots from 50-175 yards while also ranking 11th in bounce-back percentage, displaying strong mental fortitude after a bad hole. At 45/1, we’re getting significant value on Smalley’s outright odds, which could be a steal if he gets off to a fast start, where he tends to perform best in Round 2. Smalley hasn’t delivered a T25 finish since The American Express back in January, which means he’s due for an explosive outing at a course that fits his skill set. 

Brandon Wu (+5500) (Bet $100 to collect $5,600) Go to DraftKings to get the best Brandon Wu odds

Last year, Brandon Wu rocketed up the leaderboard on Sunday, going -8-under-par, along with Tony Finau. Wu has been flying under the radar this season. Still, he did log T14 and T19 finishes at The Honda Classic and The PLAYERS Championship in late February and early March, so he’s capable of stringing together a solid overall performance. Wu ranks ninth in total birdies, first in putting from three feet or less, and is 34th in total driving efficiency. He can find the greens in regulation at a 67 percent rate, which is better than his iron metrics indicate, so at 50/1, we have an obligation to sprinkle on Wu’s outright odds, as he scored -13-under-par in his final two rounds at Vidanta in 2022. 

Matt MacKay

Matt MacKay is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game from a fantasy sports and sports betting perspective. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly aiming to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.