What Would An Average Golfer Shoot In PGA Tour Conditions?

We've heard tour pros tell amateurs they'd struggle to break 100 around Augusta National or a tricked-up US Open setup, so what do the numbers say when it comes to regular golfers tackling a PGA Tour course?

A new USGA tool told us that an 18-handicapper would have a course handicap of 32 and target score of 102 around Oakmont last year, with the pros playing much longer courses than average players are used to, lined with thick rough, long carries to the fairways and fast, sloping greens.

Farmers Insurance Open venue Torrey Pines is one of the PGA Tour's longest and most difficult tests, so let's take a look at how an average player might fare there.

The South Course, which hosts the final two rounds each year and was the layout for the 2008 and 2021 US Opens, plays a mammoth 7,765 yards from the tips for the PGA Tour pros.

Its official course rating, from the fully stretched-out yardage of 7,802 (which can only be played with permission) is 78.2 with a slope of 144.

That means, per the USGA's course handicap calculator, that an 18-handicapper would receive a course handicap of 29 with a target score of 101. That is the exact same at TPC Sawgrass' Stadium Course, too, which has a rating of 76.8 and a slope of 155 from its back tees.

That is a fair reflection for a social round but it does not include PGA Tour conditions like the thick rough, tucked pins and fast greens, or the fact galleries and cameras follow them and they're playing for their livelihoods, so I'd estimate these factors would add on another ten strokes.

And remember 101 is not the 18-handicapper's average score, it is the number they would tend to shoot around if they played well.

I would therefore estimate an average 18-handicapper in PGA Tour conditions would shoot somewhere around 115-120 from the Torrey Pines tips or another of its toughest courses like TPC Sawgrass.

Nine-handicappers would have a course handicap of 18 for a target score of 90 if they played well, meaning they would do very well to break 100 under PGA Tour conditions.

For a scratch, they'd be playing off of six with a target of 78 if they played well.

So, does that suggest a scratch handicapper could break 80 on the PGA Tour?

That seems highly unlikely, especially considering five PGA Tour pros, who tend to play to somewhere around a plus-eight index, didn't break 80 in the final round at Torrey last year.

Ludvig Aberg, then-World No.6, shot 79 while Sahith Theegala, who was ranked as the 15th best golfer in the entire world at the time, shot 80.

Luke List, who won the event in 2022 so knows the course very well, shot an 81. He averages 310 yards off the tee, which is a mammoth 85 yards farther than the average 20 handicapper hits their drives (225 yards).

So while the USGA numbers can't be argued with, I think they need to be taken with a pinch of salt and have a good 8-10 strokes added on top when considering true PGA Tour conditions.

A golfer with a PGA Tour card is among the best 100 or so on the planet out of tens of millions of players, so it is very difficult to put into words just how good they are.

Even a pro shooting 78 during the Farmers Insurance Open is playing to at least scratch standard on what would be considered to be a very bad day for them.

What do you think you would shoot in PGA Tour conditions? Let me know in the comments below.