Dubai Championship Golf Betting Tips 2021
After the fun and games in the Algarve where Thomas Pieters’ first victory in three years was given a massive assist by a faltering Portugal Masters leader in Matthieu Pavon who had never won in 132 starts.
Poor Pavon, two clear until his nerve finally cracked with two visits to water on the long 12th where he ran up an eight. He later had to take another penalty and the dream was over.
No doubt the Frenchman would have been delighted with tied second when teeing off on Thursday but will another chance like that ever come along again?
Pieters played his part in this comedy of errors by also driving into the lake but his experience of three previous European victories and a Ryder Cup debut in 2016 got him over the line but it was nerve-jangling stuff before the 25/1 shot got the job done.
The Belgian has withdrawn from this week’s Dubai Championship but his success after a long period of under-achieving might inspire his younger World Cup partner Thomas Detry to lose that ‘non-winner’ tag and post a long-overdue ‘W’.
The stylish Detry, pipped in a Scottish Open playoff in July, flies back after finishing a respectable 22nd in Mexico but, like Pieters, has been expensive to follow and others with fewer nerve problems under the gun will be entrusted with my betting money.
Ryder Cup buddies Paul Casey and Tommy Fleetwood might have too much class for the Fire course opposition at Jumeirah Estates - the big Tour Championship finale comes next week on the neighbouring Earth course - and the two Brits are priced accordingly.
Casey has already won in Dubai this year, in the Desert Classic at the end of January, has been fourth in two 2021 Majors, placed fifth at the Olympics and is a regular top-ten shooter on the world’s No. 1 circuit.
True, this will be his debut on the flattering-but-long 7480-yard par 72 which hosted this for the first time last year when Parisian Antoine Rozner prevailed in a fabulous birdie-fest, the Frenchman 25-under score getting him home by two from joint runners-up Matt Wallace, Andy Sullivan, Mike Lorenzo-Vera and Francesco Laporta.
The last name on that list is interesting because Laporta brought the same sort of form to the table at the weekend when seventh in Portugal.
He can certainly play as we saw when sixth behind American raider Billy Horschel at Wentworth.
As an each-way bet, the original 90/1 looked handsome. Others must have thought so as the Italian has been cut to 60s.
I’m giving Min Woo Lee, last week’s main selection, another run.
He finished eighth in the Algarve, so irritating for each-way punters as most layers only pay down to seventh.
It’s not my style to bear a grudge, preferring the bigger picture which says Lee was runner-up at Valderrama before that and he beat a better field when winning the Scottish Open.
And anyway eighth is pretty good, isn’t it? - as long as you weren’t backing him!
Remember he’s only 23 and the best is yet to come.
He’s the same price, 25/1, as last week, in a stronger field.
When course and current form align, that’s the time to take a punt.
With Laporta already put up, I’m having another wee bet on powerhouse Scot Grant Forrest who shot 21 under for sixth last year but arrives this time as a European Tour winner.
It’s only a month back to his fine third at the Spanish Open while he was threatening again with 68-67 at halfway in the Algarve before fading to 22nd.
In finishing joint-second on Sunday, Lucas Bjerregaard finally showed a glimmer of the flair that produced victories in Portugal and at the Dunhill Links in 2017-18.
It’s been pretty dreadful for a couple of years but Sunday’s fat cheque, following 12th last month in Madrid, tells us he’s no yesterday’s man.
The merit was even greater as his job was on the line.
It enables the Dane to stay on tour next year.
Even though last week’s golf was scrappy and far from a thing of beauty, he stuck in there and showed a great fighting heart.
Although 2021 has not shown Fleetwood to best advantage, he wears the disappointments with a smile.
He is still more than capable of winning at this level but 10/1 odds don’t encourage an investment.
Matt Wallace started favourite last week but missed the cut by a mile.
On his immediate previous form, fourth in the Zozo Championship, he has an obvious chance and the 25/1 price is admittedly tempting but he hasn’t had a year to remember.
Even so, another Matt, this time Hoylake man Matthew Jordan, rates better value on the back of Sunday’s fast-finishing fifth.
He’s a 60/1 shot who is going places.
Dubai Championship Golf Betting Tips 2021 - advised bets
- 2pts each-way Paul Casey at 11/1 with Bet365
- 1pt each-way Min Woo Lee at 25/1 with Bet365
- 1pt each-way Francesco Laporta at 60/1 with Bet365
- 1pt each-way Lucas Bjerregaard at 60/1
- 0.5pt each-way Grant Forrest at 55/1 with Bet365
- 0.5pt each-way Thomas Detry at 30/1 with Bet365
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